jfk08c wrote:The GFS spitting out a storm in fantasy land is nothing new but I have to admit, the run to run consistency of development makes me think there's something there to keep an eye on. Normally it would make it a couple runs and then drop off but this has been a multi day trend. Time will tell
We'll see as nobody can possibly know what will happen that far out in forecast time. El Ninos are often active in the Gulf and nearby early in the season. But don't be fooled by the repeated runs of the GFS showing a TC in that area. I can remember multiple instances of the GFS over recent years going as long as a week+ having run after run after run of a strong TC and then it pretty suddenly dropping it afterward with it never reappearing as if to say "psyche!", especially when the GFS was the only model with it. One key will be to see if other models start to pick up in it.