2023 WPAC Season

[doomhaMwx]

TSR forecast calls for a very active season.

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1654587817291571200

TSR predicts that Northwest Pacific typhoon activity in 2023 will be around 30% above the 1991-
2020 30-year norm. Confidence is higher than normal at this lead time.

Summary: The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) early May forecast for Northwest Pacific typhoon activity
in 2023 anticipates a season with above-norm activity. TSR uses the strong link (R2 = 0.82; 1993-2022)
between the annual Northwest Pacific ACE index and August-September-October (ASO) ENSO
combined with the increasing expectation that a moderate to strong El Niño will develop and persist
through ASO 2023. Although sizable uncertainties remain and the forecast skill at this range is
historically low, TSR anticipates there is a 74% likelihood that Northwest Pacific ACE in 2023 will be
above the 1991-2020 30-year norm and anticipates there is a 60% chance Northwest Pacific ACE in 2023
will be in the upper tercile of years 1991-2020.

[Hayabusa]

TSR forecast calls for a very active season.

https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1654587817291571200?t=2dewQthrhOMg5-ozaV1QHA&s=19

394 ACE the highest ACE since 2018 . But it is already May and we have yet to have an intense typhoon on a looming El Nino, models failed 93W that even the Euro fell for it.

[Yellow Evan]

394 ACE is perfectly normal for a strong near super Nino.

[zzzh]

Note that the TSR May forecast is purely based on the predicted ASO ONI. I care more about their July/August forecast.

[zzzh]

I don't think that's a favorable sst look for WPAC. You do not want a warm pool near the Philippines(that's means there is less upwelling and the monsoon trough is inactive), you want them to be centered more east.

[dexterlabio]

:uarrow: I don't think that's a favorable sst look for WPAC. You do not want a warm pool near the Philippines(that's means there is less upwelling and the monsoon trough is inactive), you want them to be centered more east.

That didn't stop 2014 to be at least average in the WPAC though. But tbh Philippine sea being warmer than the Central Pacific looks La Niña-ish.

[cycloneye]

We will see if that happens.

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1656270189980266497

[Hayabusa]

We will see if that happens.

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1656270189980266497

GFS is fantasizing again in the long range it develops the invest for it in a week. Euro shows it too.

[Kingarabian]

GFS is picking up on a significant typhoon in response to the MJO passage and subsequent WWB event over WPAC.

Euro and CMC don't show anything but do show a stout WWB in agreement with the GFS.

If we don't get a strong typhoon out of this then we need to analyze the conditions in the WPAC better

[dexterlabio]

GFS now has three strong typhoons (1 in SCS and 2 in the Pacific), Euro and Canadian are still showing a weak one in the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1658425534655918080

[Kingarabian]

Models showing a retro grading WWB over the next week. I think we should be able to see another Typhoon forming closer to the Philippines.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: I don't think that's a favorable sst look for WPAC. You do not want a warm pool near the Philippines(that's means there is less upwelling and the monsoon trough is inactive), you want them to be centered more east.

Seeing a storm singlehandedly reach 5+ days of maintaining at least category four intensity in May perhaps debunks that all by itself.

[zzzh]

:uarrow: I don't think that's a favorable sst look for WPAC. You do not want a warm pool near the Philippines(that's means there is less upwelling and the monsoon trough is inactive), you want them to be centered more east.

Seeing a storm singlehandedly reach 5+ days of maintaining at least category four intensity in May perhaps debunks that all by itself.

2 years ago Surigae reached 170kt (JTWC analysis) in April. Was 2021 favorable? Clearly not.

[dexterlabio]

:uarrow: I don't think that's a favorable sst look for WPAC. You do not want a warm pool near the Philippines(that's means there is less upwelling and the monsoon trough is inactive), you want them to be centered more east.

Seeing a storm singlehandedly reach 5+ days of maintaining at least category four intensity in May perhaps debunks that all by itself.

2 years ago Surigae reached 170kt (JTWC analysis) in April. Was 2021 favorable? Clearly not.

Interestingly that year spawned plenty of Cat5's for WPAC despite the La Niña, not even the ATL achieved that in 2021.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1662413017005404161



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1662413018880262148

[Kingarabian]

Euro is favoring IO TCG vs WPAC. GFS is the opposite.

[mrbagyo]

GFS showing some Philippine sea action towards the last week of June.

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

El Nino is usually a boon for early season activity. Should be an active July and August coming up.