Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

Hey gang, I am back!!.

Up to 30%.

[NotSparta]

Hey gang, I am back!!.

Up to 30%.

https://i.imgur.com/LPW4zRh.png

Glad your account issues have been resolved! Just in time for this wave

[SFLcane]

Not sure I have seen the gfs do this with a wave in June. Watch out folks in a few weeks I have a bad feeling of what’s to come.

[NotSparta]

Not sure I have seen the gfs do this with a wave in June. Watch out folks in a few weeks I have a bad feeling of what’s to come.

You should've been here in 2017. It used to love making majors out of any wave

[SFLcane]

Not sure I have seen the gfs do this with a wave in June. Watch out folks in a few weeks I have a bad feeling of what’s to come.

You should've been here in 2017. It used to love making majors out of any wave

I have been here for 15+ years. It’s just a vibe I am getting as we move into mid June the background state seems favorable early and El Niño affects seem muted to a certain point. From a meteorological standpoint this going to be wild to see.

[aspen]

Color me surprised to see an AOI in the MDR with decent model support….in mid-June with a freshly declared El Niño. Man this is gonna be a weird season.

[cycloneye]

[zzzh]

[St0rmTh0r]

this definitely looks like an epic season underway! this shouldnt be forming this early, this year the MDR will be what 2005 was to the gulf

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1669493430769033218



 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1669310186773782528

[Category5Kaiju]

I seriously wonder if the GFS's habit of spinning up fantasy canes in the WCAR is having a downstream impact on this MDR system. The most recent run destroys the MDR system as it nears the islands, presumably due to outflow from the WCAR system. On the other hand, the runs when the GFS did not churn up the WCAR system had the MDR system grow much stronger

[BobHarlem]

GFS seems to be a bit weaker with the MDR storm this run, but it also tries to get the West Carib System going again which I think is impacting the future of this MDR system on the GFS..

The canadian gets it into the Caribbean and never really gets it going much. The Canadian also starts up a wave train in the MDR with 3 systems (including this one).

Icon takes it to hurricane strength, but curves it north well before the islands.

[weeniepatrol]

2am TWO:

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form during the early to middle portions of next
week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

The ACE that this system may get would be plenty if it does what 00z Euro is showing.

[Teban54]

This is something you don't see very often from the usually conservative Euro for a storm that has not formed yet, much less in June of an El Nino year.

[Jelmergraaff]

New Euro Ensemble shows a up to 90% strike probability of a tropical cyclone through Thursday, up from 40% chance based on the run of 2 days ago. Tropical storm probability has gone up from 5% two days ago to 65% now.

[crownweather]

Pretty decent cluster of Euro EPS members that head towards the northern Lesser Antilles.

[jlauderdal]

Pretty decent cluster of Euro EPS members that head towards the northern Lesser Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/EjdV2bF.png

Trough has been persistent the last few weeks on the east coast and looks to continue, very wet and very hot in Florida as a result, this one never makes it to the US but its been a while since we have seen a system that far east this early develop...unknown if its a pre-cursor to anything later..happy hurricane hunting 2023. Start your generators this weekend; now is the time to get them fixed if you have been negligent.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS spins up a warm core later today.
Track is recurve and OTS

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gf ... 06/53.html