Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)

[GCANE]

06Z GFS spins up a warm core later today.
Track is recurve and OTS

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gf ... 06/53.html

Euro also spins up warm core later today.
Recurve and OTS but further west than GFS

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ec ... 00/71.html

[GCANE]

Doesn't look like the effects of El Nino in the MDR have kicked in yet.
GFS forecasting this to be under a broad anti-cyclone while in the MDR.

[GCANE]

Nothing in the GFS forecast showing any significant steering to cause a recurve.
Doubting the recurve idea.

[NotSparta]

Nothing in the GFS forecast showing any significant steering to cause a recurve.
Doubting the recurve idea.

The widespread troughing throughout the Atlantic doesn't look like "nothing" to me

[weeniepatrol]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the
early to middle portions of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the
early to middle portions of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Ivanhater]

Would this be considered a Cape Verde system in June?

[Category5Kaiju]

Hey, so it looks like we have a fish storm that just *might* become a major June anomaly and give the Atlantic a lot of freebie ACE points. During an El Nino year!

[wxman57]

Nothing in the GFS forecast showing any significant steering to cause a recurve.
Doubting the recurve idea.

The widespread troughing throughout the Atlantic doesn't look like "nothing" to me

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1119229835135438989/gfs_atl_500anom_2023061606_f132.png

Agreed. Deep trof to its north prior to reaching the Caribbean signals a turn to the north. Little or no ridge to keep it moving west.

[abajan]

Lots of interest in this wave for sure. Weathernerds satellite servers down.
Should be an Invest anytime now.


images

EDIT: The servers are back up. Yay!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1669663163292303360

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1669689242971242496

[abajan]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1669689242971242496

Yep, that's a definite red flag for development.

[cycloneye]

The posible recurving scenario.

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1669686131410063361

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Doesn't look like the effects of El Nino in the MDR have kicked in yet.
GFS forecasting this to be under a broad anti-cyclone while in the MDR.

They honestly might not this year, with SSTs at record levels across the entire basin, including the MDR.

[GCANE]

Nice cheat sheet of the rule-of-thumb we see year after year

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1669697382940831744

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1669733131790983170

[toad strangler]

Nice cheat sheet of the rule-of-thumb we see year after year

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1669697382940831744

yep, with historic warm temps out there all we can do is hope MDR storms spin up early and fish like champs into the open N Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Model and ensemble members that develop it into a TS over the next 2-3 days turn it north, staying east of the Caribbean. I think that's the most likely solution. Look for the NHC to bump up chances of development within 48 hrs next update. Maybe 30/60 or 30/70. Personally, I'd say 40/90.

[cycloneye]

Model and ensemble members that develop it into a TS over the next 2-3 days turn it north, staying east of the Caribbean. I think that's the most likely solution. Look for the NHC to bump up chances of development within 48 hrs next update. Maybe 30/60 or 30/70. Personally, I'd say 40/90.

And invest 92L comming very soon.