ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[JetFuel_SE]

This won't be picking up high CAPE air or high TPW air from the Amazon until it gets to 50W.
SAL is pretty strong.
ICON and Euro keep it weak until then.
GFS is the outlier with it strengthening before then.

What are you talking about? SAL is pathetically weak compared to normal.

[USTropics]

Dry air won't be a limiting factor until this approaches closer to the Caribbean, with the CCKW + deep moisture surge, there is a very healthy wave pouch along the entire axis:


I'm not seeing detrimental shear in the SHIPS output either. The forecast wind shear pattern still indicates a more radial shear pattern, (i.e., a low shear environment). Inner mechanisms related to consolidation and becoming vertically stack are the biggest impediments, and that could take some time.

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TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    24    28    32    41    51    64    75    84    94    99   103   104   107   113   117
V (KT) LAND       20    21    24    28    32    41    51    64    75    84    94    99   103   104   107   113   117
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    21    22    24    28    32    37    44    52    63    72    78    81    82    87    89
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     4     4     3     2     6    10     4     8     1     4     9    10    14    12    14    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    11    10     8     4     6     6    -1     3     2    10     9     4     1    -1     0     4     7
SHEAR DIR        167   208   176   143   152   164   169   202   183   295   107   346   293   311   290   273   234
SST (C)         27.4  27.5  27.8  28.1  27.8  27.4  27.5  26.9  27.8  27.5  27.7  28.1  28.2  28.1  28.2  28.2  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   129   131   136   140   136   131   133   125   135   131   132   136   138   138   140   141   142
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.7   0.9   1.0
TH_E DEV (C)       3     3     3     3     3     4     5     6     7     7     8     8     7     7     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     74    76    75    75    75    75    73    68    65    62    57    60    62    66    67    69    72
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     6     8    10    12    15    16    19    21    20    22    22    24    24    24    27    29
850 MB ENV VOR    37    35    38    48    60    63    79    79    74    55    38    15     2     3    18     1    23
200 MB DIV       103    77    51    32    29    23    -5    18    53    78    99    30    12   -16    43    59   116
700-850 TADV      -6    -1    -1    -2    -1     3     4     4     5     2     2     0     1     0     6     5    14
LAND (KM)        956  1076  1224  1373  1531  1690  1613  1360  1112   948   864   836   882   863   775   745   696
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.2  10.4  10.7  10.9  11.3  11.5  11.4  11.5  11.6  12.0  12.3  13.0 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     25.2  26.4  27.9  29.5  31.1  34.4  37.8  41.3  44.4  46.9  48.7  49.8  50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    10    13    15    16    16    17    17    17    14    11     7     5     6     9    12    14    14
HEAT CONTENT      11    11    24    28    17    19    22     8    39    11    24    45    48    33    28    27    21

These are really conditions I would expect in late August/September, but here we are in June...

[JetFuel_SE]

Dry air won't be a limiting factor until this approaches closer to the Caribbean, with the CCKW + deep moisture surge, there is a very healthy wave pouch along the entire axis:
https://i.imgur.com/fslkOwA.png

I'm not seeing detrimental shear in the SHIPS output either. The forecast wind shear pattern still indicates a more radial shear pattern, (i.e., a low shear environment). Inner mechanisms related to consolidation and becoming vertically stack are the biggest impediments, and that could take some time.

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TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    24    28    32    41    51    64    75    84    94    99   103   104   107   113   117
V (KT) LAND       20    21    24    28    32    41    51    64    75    84    94    99   103   104   107   113   117
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    21    22    24    28    32    37    44    52    63    72    78    81    82    87    89
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     4     4     3     2     6    10     4     8     1     4     9    10    14    12    14    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    11    10     8     4     6     6    -1     3     2    10     9     4     1    -1     0     4     7
SHEAR DIR        167   208   176   143   152   164   169   202   183   295   107   346   293   311   290   273   234
SST (C)         27.4  27.5  27.8  28.1  27.8  27.4  27.5  26.9  27.8  27.5  27.7  28.1  28.2  28.1  28.2  28.2  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   129   131   136   140   136   131   133   125   135   131   132   136   138   138   140   141   142
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.7   0.9   1.0
TH_E DEV (C)       3     3     3     3     3     4     5     6     7     7     8     8     7     7     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     74    76    75    75    75    75    73    68    65    62    57    60    62    66    67    69    72
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     6     8    10    12    15    16    19    21    20    22    22    24    24    24    27    29
850 MB ENV VOR    37    35    38    48    60    63    79    79    74    55    38    15     2     3    18     1    23
200 MB DIV       103    77    51    32    29    23    -5    18    53    78    99    30    12   -16    43    59   116
700-850 TADV      -6    -1    -1    -2    -1     3     4     4     5     2     2     0     1     0     6     5    14
LAND (KM)        956  1076  1224  1373  1531  1690  1613  1360  1112   948   864   836   882   863   775   745   696
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.2  10.4  10.7  10.9  11.3  11.5  11.4  11.5  11.6  12.0  12.3  13.0 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     25.2  26.4  27.9  29.5  31.1  34.4  37.8  41.3  44.4  46.9  48.7  49.8  50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    10    13    15    16    16    17    17    17    14    11     7     5     6     9    12    14    14
HEAT CONTENT      11    11    24    28    17    19    22     8    39    11    24    45    48    33    28    27    21

These are really conditions I would expect in late August/September, but here we are in June...

Even if there's more dry air near the Caribbean, if the storm is developed enough, it shouldn't be much of a problem, especially if there's as little shear as is shown in that SHIPS run.

[chaser1]

Just fascinating. I'm forever in awe of that particular point within tropical genesis where you suddenly begin to see a COC out of what had just previously been little more than "a large blob". As one or two thers have noted quite a number of years ago, the best anology that describes that apparent affect would be the visual of someone that suddenly pulled the rip-cord of a lawn mower engine leading it to immediatly crank over. That is what i am seeing on the non-color IR enhancement at about 9N & 24 W (close to but perhaps just due east of the most recent Ascat).

[chaser1]

Correction, 9N & about 25W. If I were to allow myself to ignore climo, i'd guess this system to be one-big-bruiser. This disturbance appears to have a healthy sized envelope and as indicated by NHC, seems to be barrelling towards the west at a decent clip.

[GCANE]

This won't be picking up high CAPE air or high TPW air from the Amazon until it gets to 50W.
SAL is pretty strong.
ICON and Euro keep it weak until then.
GFS is the outlier with it strengthening before then.

What are you talking about? SAL is pathetically weak compared to normal.

Maybe a matter of opinion, but I see tons of dust in the MDR
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... plit&time=

[GCANE]

A very typical protected pouch convective pattern.
Shear-induced storms firing up and then washing out on the leading west side.
Stronger, longer duration "feeder band" convection on the NE tip of the wave.

[GCANE]

Euro and ICON drive it into the Caribbean.
Another wave behind it.

[cycloneye]

Good circulation but still disorganized with convection.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 8 AM with 40%/70%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[tropicwatch]

If it develops, definitely a rare June Cape Verde system.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2023061712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 266W, 20, 1012, WV

[cycloneye]

If it develops, definitely a rare June Cape Verde system.

Only three storms haved formed on June in history at MDR as climatology does not favor the area.

[Hurricane2022]

Until 92L becomes atleast a modest tropical storm, I don't believe in any predictions that make this a hurricane, let alone a major one.
...I know 2023 is more favorable for cyclone genesis and intensification than any year humans have been here, but I still think it's better to wait a little longer to see what happens than to get too excited early on with the (often exaggerated) early predictions. from HWRF and also from GFS many times.

[wxman57]

There are two camps in the model guidance and ensemble members. An early development to TS means a turn to the north and out to sea, staying east of the Caribbean. A weaker system tracks west to the NE Caribbean and it's death. I'm not sure which is correct yet.

[AutoPenalti]

This may have an issue developing, it has such a large envelope that there are likely competing vorts. Until one is dominate, it will have a hard time establishing a circulation.

[Sciencerocks]

Like I said last night
1. Slow development into a tropical storm during the next 36-48 hours and possibly a hurricane.
2. Max 55-65 knots. Which is more in line with the census of the models this morning.
3. West to west-northwest motion into the islands and Puerto Rico.
4. What ever remains will turn northward and recurve around the high at 70.

[chaser1]

This may have an issue developing, it has such a large envelope that there are likely competing vorts. Until one is dominate, it will have a hard time establishing a circulation.

I generally agree with your thought process regarding large envelope type tropical systems however not in this particular case. My own personal interpretation of the satellite presentation is that a broad LLC and MLC is largely vertically stacked already courtesy of what appears to be an ideal upper air environment. More often than not, any number of issues prevent tropical genesis to easily occur. Low level easterlies resulting in a westward moving system to outrun its upper support, convective issues as a result of dry mid-level conditions/SAL/SST's etc., or the standard garden variety upper westerlies leaving narrow slivers of real estate for a tropical system to work within. Of course, every so often we'll see one of those MDR Magical moments where big or small..... tropical systems just quickly and easily develop under the most ideal of conditions. Those circumstances are typically limited to particular years usually during the first 6 weeks of September (LOL, 8/15 - 9/30).

Anyway, I don't see any of those impediments at this moment and despite this disturbance's large size, DO believe that we'll see a slow steady increase in organization leading up to TD classification by late Monday.

[tiger_deF]

Looking markedly better in the past few hours. Much more convection than at DMAX last night.

[cycloneye]

Looks better.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1670109230085406723




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1670109233566691328