EPAC: INVEST 90E - Discussion

[zzzh]

EP, 90, 2023061718, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1066W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002, SPAWNINVEST, ep722023 to ep902023,

[JetFuel_SE]

Yeah idk about this one.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Brief window until Tuesday.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP90):
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern
Mexico. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
However, its chances of formation appear to end by Tuesday when the
system is expected to move into unfavorable environmental
conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP90):
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the southern
tip of Baja California. Some slow development of this system
remains possible during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Thereafter, the environment
is expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP90):
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the southern
tip of Baja California. Some slow development of this system
remains possible during the next day or two while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Thereafter, the environment
is expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

This is fairly convectively anemic and not far away from the 26C isotherm. We might see a little more surface reflection but not enough time for actual genesis.

In a year with less of a -PMM and/or a more favorable mid-lattitude pattern, this would probably be a quickfire tropical storm

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development of this system
appears unlikely since it will be moving west-northwestward into
unfavorable environmental conditions in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

This invest is gone.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished overnight
associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Development of this system is no longer expected as it
begins to encounter stronger upper-level winds today while
moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Blake

[Teban54]

So the Atlantic has a TD (forecast to be a hurricane) and another orange in the MDR, while the EPac had a failed invest and another failed lemon.

In June of an El Nino year.