ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1670822788662464518

[HurricaneEnzo]

Yeah I'm not sure about the shear thing. Looks to me like it has an anticyclone overhead moving in tandem with it keeping the shear low. But I'm definitely not an expert so I might be reading the charts wrong. Seems prime for strengthening in the short term. SAL isn't that crazy and storms can overcome it when shear isn't forcing it into the core.

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[Woofde]

Outflow looks quite healthy with a nice feathery look. Low shear, lack of dry air and record warm water, this puppy seems primed for intensification in the short term. Curious to see what structure it develops.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a tropical storm to me!

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1670828291522183173

[ThomasW]

Three likely ends up in the islands as a minimal tropical storm. NHC forecast is overblown, imo. GFS downtrended significantly at 12z and shear only looks to rise with a 21 mph forward motion. EL NINO.

[Teban54]

Three likely ends up in the islands as a minimal tropical storm. NHC forecast is overblown, imo. GFS downtrended significantly at 12z and shear only looks to rise with a 21 mph forward motion. EL NINO.

If it was a true EL NINO pattern, TD3 shouldn't have existed in the first place, let alone having another orange behind it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Outflow looks quite healthy with a nice feathery look. Low shear, lack of dry air and record warm water, this puppy seems primed for intensification in the short term. Curious to see what structure it develops.

I've had the COD Satellite going on auto-refresh for the last hour or so and there is a pronounced increase in the outflow on the southern end that has been absent up until now. It is becoming very symmetrical.

[ThomasW]

Three likely ends up in the islands as a minimal tropical storm. NHC forecast is overblown, imo. GFS downtrended significantly at 12z and shear only looks to rise with a 21 mph forward motion. EL NINO.

If it was a true EL NINO pattern, TD3 shouldn't have existed in the first place, let alone having another orange behind it.

My friend - I am just remindoing everyone that this is an El Nino. It isn't directly affecting Three as the atmosphere isn't coupled - yet

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Three likely ends up in the islands as a minimal tropical storm. NHC forecast is overblown, imo. GFS downtrended significantly at 12z and shear only looks to rise with a 21 mph forward motion. EL NINO.

Fast trades and shear in June are not exactly uncommon.

Not to mention you have two developing systems in the MDR, which is the exact opposite of what one would expect in June.

Three likely ends up in the islands as a minimal tropical storm. NHC forecast is overblown, imo. GFS downtrended significantly at 12z and shear only looks to rise with a 21 mph forward motion. EL NINO.

If it was a true EL NINO pattern, TD3 shouldn't have existed in the first place, let alone having another orange behind it.

My friend - I am just remindoing everyone that this is an El Nino. It isn't directly affecting Three as the atmosphere isn't coupled - yet

I'd recommend checking out the seasonal indicators thread on this. Right now Atlantic temperatures are the warmest ever recorded. That, combined with anomalously low SAL, is why we are seeing this insane surge of activity. This is not normal for June, no matter how you look at it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I would guess if we had a recon in this currently, they would probably find a 40-50kt TS. That's what it looks like to me. It has been consistently organizing all day at a pretty good clip.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is finally coming around. Weakening TS enters the Caribbean then weakens to a depression or remnant low south of PR in about 5 days. Someone asked about Barbados - you won't see much out of it. A little rain and little wind south of the track. Wind will be about 20 mph less on the south side of the storm.

[ThomasW]

Three likely ends up in the islands as a minimal tropical storm. NHC forecast is overblown, imo. GFS downtrended significantly at 12z and shear only looks to rise with a 21 mph forward motion. EL NINO.

Fast trades and shear in June are not exactly uncommon.

Not to mention you have two developing systems in the MDR, which is the exact opposite of what one would expect in June.

If it was a true EL NINO pattern, TD3 shouldn't have existed in the first place, let alone having another orange behind it.

My friend - I am just remindoing everyone that this is an El Nino. It isn't directly affecting Three as the atmosphere isn't coupled - yet

I'd recommend checking out the seasonal indicators thread on this. Right now Atlantic temperatures are the warmest ever recorded. That, combined with anomalously low SAL, is why we are seeing this insane surge of activity. This is not normal for June, no matter how you look at it.

I do understand the +AMO is incredibly strong as of now. But El nIno will win over warm surface temperatures in the Atlantic. You don't have to believe me, just wait until September rolls around and the Atlantic is SAL/shear stricken

[ThomasW]

12Z GFS is finally coming around. Weakening TS enters the Caribbean then weakens to a depression or remnant low south of PR in about 5 days. Someone asked about Barbados - you won't see much out of it. A little rain and little wind south of the track. Wind will be about 20 mph less on the south side of the storm.

Agreed. I respect the folks at the NHC but I'm not sure what they're doing here.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Three likely ends up in the islands as a minimal tropical storm. NHC forecast is overblown, imo. GFS downtrended significantly at 12z and shear only looks to rise with a 21 mph forward motion. EL NINO.

Fast trades and shear in June are not exactly uncommon.

Not to mention you have two developing systems in the MDR, which is the exact opposite of what one would expect in June.

My friend - I am just remindoing everyone that this is an El Nino. It isn't directly affecting Three as the atmosphere isn't coupled - yet

I'd recommend checking out the seasonal indicators thread on this. Right now Atlantic temperatures are the warmest ever recorded. That, combined with anomalously low SAL, is why we are seeing this insane surge of activity. This is not normal for June, no matter how you look at it.

I do understand the +AMO is incredibly strong as of now. But El nIno will win over warm surface temperatures in the Atlantic. You don't have to believe me, just wait until September rolls around and the Atlantic is SAL/shear stricken

2004

[ThomasW]

Fast trades and shear in June are not exactly uncommon.

Not to mention you have two developing systems in the MDR, which is the exact opposite of what one would expect in June.




I'd recommend checking out the seasonal indicators thread on this. Right now Atlantic temperatures are the warmest ever recorded. That, combined with anomalously low SAL, is why we are seeing this insane surge of activity. This is not normal for June, no matter how you look at it.

I do understand the +AMO is incredibly strong as of now. But El nIno will win over warm surface temperatures in the Atlantic. You don't have to believe me, just wait until September rolls around and the Atlantic is SAL/shear stricken

2004

That was a Modoki, however

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is finally coming around. Weakening TS enters the Caribbean then weakens to a depression or remnant low south of PR in about 5 days. Someone asked about Barbados - you won't see much out of it. A little rain and little wind south of the track. Wind will be about 20 mph less on the south side of the storm.

Agreed. I respect the folks at the NHC but I'm not sure what they're doing here.

NHC folks are demonstrating an abundance of caution. They don't want anyone in the islands to ignore this potential storm.

[ThomasW]

12Z GFS is finally coming around. Weakening TS enters the Caribbean then weakens to a depression or remnant low south of PR in about 5 days. Someone asked about Barbados - you won't see much out of it. A little rain and little wind south of the track. Wind will be about 20 mph less on the south side of the storm.

Agreed. I respect the folks at the NHC but I'm not sure what they're doing here.

NHC folks are demonstrating an abundance of caution. They don't want anyone in the islands to ignore this potential storm.

That is fair enough. But there is also the "boy who cried wolf" argument if this forecast "busts"

[psyclone]

What an impressive system and forecast no matter the ultimate fate. It seems like first forecasts tend to be prone to big changes so the bullish intensity may indeed be adjusted downward in subsequent forecasts. Nevertheless...what an out of place system per the calendar. It makes me wonder if the seasonal outlooks, which were way too bullish last year might have overcorrected this year.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video on TD-3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6txQjVx_2nM