ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[GeauxTigers]

New consensus is farther south of NHC track and a lot faster than NHC. TVCN track is now south of Martinique. NHC's track seems to be about 12-18 hrs too slow for reaching the islands. I still think it will weaken considerably as it nears the islands, down to a remnant low south of the DR.

Do you expect an impact for the US and British Virgin Islands?

Yes, great question! Hoping someone can answer you.

[Hurricane Mike]

New consensus is farther south of NHC track and a lot faster than NHC. TVCN track is now south of Martinique. NHC's track seems to be about 12-18 hrs too slow for reaching the islands. I still think it will weaken considerably as it nears the islands, down to a remnant low south of the DR.

You really think conditions will become that hostile? To the point of total dissipation?

[IsabelaWeather]

Latest IR really looks like some deep convection going up in 4 quadrants around the CoC. Really curious what happens with this by morning. Starting to get the shrimp look too

[ElectricStorm]

With the way it's looking right now I don't really see this having any issues making it to Cat 1 hurricane strength before shear/dry air takes over closer to the islands. Probably won't get much stronger than that but I think we'll see perhaps a 65-75kt peak before the islands. Crazy system for June.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1671012963379998721

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

It’s honestly baffling NHC is refusing to raise the intensity because it’s clearly stronger then 35 kt right now. More likely 40-45 kt

[Chemmers]

Defo starting to have a shimp look about it

[Chemmers]

Looking good on satellite this morning think will see an 10 to 15 mph increase on there next advisory

[GCANE]

Looks like it'll continue to strengthen.
Convection firing off a shear gradient and in-the-clear 335K PV over it.

IMHO models may be over doing the shear once in the Carib
Anti-cyclone will be setup centered in the West / Mid Carib
Bret will hit the 250mb N to S flow of the anti-cyclone in the east Carib.
This is the shear that models are saying will shred Bret.
However, models indicate the directional shear is only at the high level.
Mid-level shear is actually quite low, 500mb to the surface.
It may have enough convection to get thru this and dive into and under the anti-cyclone.
Once that happens intensification would be very likely.
Just need to wait and see.

[GCANE]

Archer satellite location estimates have Bret significantly south of forecast track.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... /track.png

Of course, nothing better than recon to give an accurate location.

[GCANE]

Model updates now having a more straight west track into the Carib

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 191800.png

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1671046460044083200

[NotSparta]

Center is pretty close to the edge of convection. Would be hard to intensify like this

[Stormybajan]

Center is pretty close to the edge of convection. Would be hard to intensify like this

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1120667894297137172/center_convection.gif

Yeah, I was about to ask whats causing the convection to move away from the center, is it shear, or dry air? Think NHC will have to drop their forecast down to 65 mph instead of the 75 mph forecast currently. Truthfully I thought today would have prime conditions for Bret given its hitting more OHC also and more to its west..the center popping out is giving me a big

[NotSparta]

Center is pretty close to the edge of convection. Would be hard to intensify like this

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1120667894297137172/center_convection.gif

Yeah, I was about to ask whats causing the convection to move away from the center, is it shear, or dry air? Think NHC will have to drop their forecast down to 65 mph instead of the 75 mph forecast currently. Truthfully I thought today would have prime conditions for Bret given its hitting more OHC also and more to its west..the center popping out is giving me a big

Shear, particularly mid-level. Looks like it set in early. No dry air to speak of at the moment, not even a single outflow boundary in the area which suggests a reasonably moist environment. May deal with dry air later though

[NDG]

Its structure is not that bad, at least as of 5 hrs ago.

[wxman57]

New consensus is farther south of NHC track and a lot faster than NHC. TVCN track is now south of Martinique. NHC's track seems to be about 12-18 hrs too slow for reaching the islands. I still think it will weaken considerably as it nears the islands, down to a remnant low south of the DR.

Do you expect an impact for the US and British Virgin Islands?

Very little impact that far north. Very slight increase in easterly trade winds and a few showers. I have a briefing for a client in St. Croix at 8:30am.

[wxman57]

I see the NHC is coming around to a weakening storm reaching Caribbean at a faster pace. Will likely be weaker than they're predicting by day 5. Possibly a depression then.

[NDG]

Newer microwave pass shows what we are seeing on vis satellite this morning, its LLC well displaced from the deep convection, not much strengthening today.