ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Nice helicity developing with that LLC convection.
Looks like a legit long-term hot tower.

It aint dead yet Jim

[ElectricStorm]

Certainly looks a lot worse now than I expected it to last night, it's chances of becoming a hurricane have definitely taken a big hit. That being said, nice new burst of convection over the center, if that can sustain and continue to build this time without the center becoming exposed again, I could still see this having around a 55-65kt peak or so. Needs to get going soon though since it's time in favorable conditions is becoming limited.

[GCANE]

Hot tower creating a symmetric CDO.
Very little shear.

[kevin]

Honestly looked pretty bad earlier today, but it is quickly improving.

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Very strong updraft, the PV anomaly is dead for sure.
Convection much stronger than anything around it.
Good chance won't see anymore PV streamers from downdrafts of the surrounding convection.

[Nimbus]

Tops blew off near -45 as I expected but Brett looks like he is working some of the dry air out.
Recon data will be useful for the island forecast. Caribbean is still a hostile though.

[SFLcane]

[cheezyWXguy]

Clear improvement but it looks like the center is tucked just under the western edge of that burst. As long as it can keep firing off bursts like this it should become better stacked with time.

[cycloneye]

Up to 3.0

TXNT28 KNES 201823
TCSNTL

A. 03L (BRET)

B. 20/1800Z

C. 12.2N

D. 47.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...A WELL DEFINED CDO MEASURING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 60 NM
RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR A BANDING FEATURE THAT LIES
EAST OF THE CDO. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR STEADY TREND. PT IS ALSO
2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/1641Z 12.2N 47.6W AMSR2


...TURK

[cycloneye]

Up to 40kt at 18z Best Track.

AL, 03, 2023062018, , BEST, 0, 121N, 480W, 40, 1006, TS

[NDG]

12z Euro throws out the idea of Bret dissipating before reaching the Islands. It actually shows it becoming a hurricane for a short period early Thursday morning then weakening some before tracking through the Islands but shows near 70 mph wind gusts affecting the Islands.

[NDG]

Looking better than this morning.

[wxman57]

12z Euro throws out the idea of Bret dissipating before reaching the Islands. It actually shows it becoming a hurricane for a short period early Thursday morning then weakening some before tracking through the Islands but shows near 70 mph wind gusts affecting the Islands.

I'm not seeing that in the 12Z EC, NDG. I see a peak wind of 48 kts early Thursday, followed by weakening (Pivotal Weather). Down to 43 kts as it reaches the islands Thursday evening. Dissipation in east Caribbean.

[NDG]

12z Euro throws out the idea of Bret dissipating before reaching the Islands. It actually shows it becoming a hurricane for a short period early Thursday morning then weakening some before tracking through the Islands but shows near 70 mph wind gusts affecting the Islands.

I'm not seeing that in the 12Z EC, NDG. I see a peak wind of 48 kts early Thursday, followed by weakening (Pivotal Weather). Down to 43 kts as it reaches the islands Thursday evening. Dissipation in east Caribbean.

Is on weather.us, HR run.
Pressure of 990mb, 82 mph winds with 119mph gusts, for a very quick period, 2-3 hr.

[floridasun]

Up to 40kt at 18z Best Track.

AL, 03, 2023062018, , BEST, 0, 121N, 480W, 40, 1006, TS

that 50mph?

[cycloneye]

Up to 40kt at 18z Best Track.

AL, 03, 2023062018, , BEST, 0, 121N, 480W, 40, 1006, TS

that 50mph?

Is 45 mph.

[wxman57]

12z Euro throws out the idea of Bret dissipating before reaching the Islands. It actually shows it becoming a hurricane for a short period early Thursday morning then weakening some before tracking through the Islands but shows near 70 mph wind gusts affecting the Islands.

I'm not seeing that in the 12Z EC, NDG. I see a peak wind of 48 kts early Thursday, followed by weakening (Pivotal Weather). Down to 43 kts as it reaches the islands Thursday evening. Dissipation in east Caribbean.

Is on weather.us, HR run.
Pressure of 990mb, 82 mph winds with 119mph gusts, for a very quick period, 2-3 hr.

https://i.imgur.com/b56WzY3.png
https://i.imgur.com/0jA2B4e.png
https://i.imgur.com/5N7r3Ah.png

They hide their maps well on that site. All I can find is a map showing the U.S. Can't find a tropical section. Must need to pay for a subscription.

I plotted the winds on our high-res version and I see the higher winds at 03Z and 06Z Thursday, followed by a weakening to 40-45 mph right after.

[floridasun]

both tropicaltidbit and weather nerd last sat frame got issue this afternoon

[aspen]

Looking better than this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/9Q913lM.jpg

Center is finally covered back up again on visible imagery. I wonder how much Bret will be able to strengthen under the favorable UL pattern tomorrow before shear will likely increase again starting Thursday.