ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#341 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:32 pm

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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#342 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:53 pm

Depending where you fix the center its very close to T3.5
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#343 Postby RT23 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:01 pm

Tropical Storm Watch had been issued for Barbados given uncertainty in track
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#344 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:41 pm

Very rare track for this time of the year.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1671259973819719680


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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#345 Postby Chemmers » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:43 pm

Another big hot tower over the centre maybe?, might be stacked now?
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#346 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:05 pm

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:onfire:
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#347 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:09 pm

Is Bret taking a decent jog north or is it the way the clouds make it look?
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#348 Postby 404UserNotFound » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:27 pm

While not so much now, earlier today, Bret looked like the Pepsi logo!
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#349 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:31 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:Is Bret taking a decent jog north or is it the way the clouds make it look?

Hard to tell exactly, but the general motion is still west. The center will likely get pulled around in different directions as it continues to stack under the deep convection. Clearly strengthening, best it’s looked so far imo
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#350 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:38 pm

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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#351 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:54 pm

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LLC semi-exposed now
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#352 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:23 pm

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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#353 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:29 pm

TXNT28 KNES 210020
TCSNTL

A. 03L (BRET)

B. 20/2330Z

C. 12.9N

D. 49.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES, WITH THE CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 1/2 DEGREE OR 30NM FM A LARGE
CONVECTION.DT IS 3.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/2153Z 12.9N 49.0W SSMIS


...ZHU
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#354 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:37 pm

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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#355 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:40 pm

Up to 45kt.

AL, 03, 2023062100, , BEST, 0, 124N, 495W, 45, 1003, TS
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#356 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:54 pm


That’s quite a potent mid-level center. If Bret was slower and was allowed to stack, we’d probably be seeing a RI phase similar to what the HWRF had been showing, which would’ve allowed Bret to escape to the north before hitting the islands.

It’s possible that maybe mid-level shear relaxes enough for the LLC and MLC to get a little better aligned for a bit, leading to a peak of 55-70 kt. I don’t see anything higher than a marginal Cat 1 being possible.
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#357 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:59 pm

Helicity is very strong with this one.

Pushing shear out of the way.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Looks like its kicking in a poleward outflow channel
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Got that evil twin convective blob indicating a strong feeder band connection - tons of juice ahead to work with.
Expect to see a jumbo shrimp form.
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#358 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:26 pm

Don't let the convection fool you - sheared at the mid-level causing tilt. LLC is on the tip of the convection and the MLC on the edge.

Climatology is likely prevailing here. My 60 knot prediction is likely to bust.
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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#359 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:38 pm

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For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

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Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#360 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:41 pm

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Don't be naughty, Mr. Bret :oops:
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

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