ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL032023#homePageLink

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Seems to be passing further north of Barbados

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

GFS peaks at 994mb, strongest run since 06z 6/19.

[Teban54]

An angry Atlantic shrimp.

Based on my amateur eyeballing of the shortwave IR imagery, it seems that the LLC might also be tucked in under the convection now, instead of at the edge.

[cheezyWXguy]

An angry Atlantic shrimp.

Based on my amateur eyeballing of the shortwave IR imagery, it seems that the LLC might also be tucked in under the convection now, instead of at the edge.
https://i.postimg.cc/mgSMZr5F/goes16-ir-03-L-202306202335.gif

Agreed, based on shortwave ir “nighttime vis” it looks to me like the center is directly under the latest deep convective burst. Curious to see if this will continue through the night, unlike last night

[ElectricStorm]

03L BRET 230621 0600 12.7N 50.7W ATL 45 1003

[Hammy]

An angry Atlantic shrimp.

Based on my amateur eyeballing of the shortwave IR imagery, it seems that the LLC might also be tucked in under the convection now, instead of at the edge.
https://i.postimg.cc/mgSMZr5F/goes16-ir-03-L-202306202335.gif

Agreed, based on shortwave ir “nighttime vis” it looks to me like the center is directly under the latest deep convective burst. Curious to see if this will continue through the night, unlike last night

NASA's site seems to confirm this, it was exposed just a bit to the southeast of the convection earlier, and has since wrapped back around

[Chemmers]

looking healthy on satellite this morning

[NDG]

Hard to tell on visible satellite since the LLC is not exposed this morning I would guess is within the red circle I placed.

[kevin]

Looking very good imo

[Nuno]

Now the NHC forecast seems too conservative for strength. No longer exposed, improved outflow, less shear. Definitely strengthening at the moment.

[NDG]

Now the NHC forecast seems too conservative for strength. No longer exposed, improved outflow, less shear. Definitely strengthening at the moment.

Euro is still persistent in strengthening some today through tonight, down to 994mb for a quick period, per the latest 06z run.

[cycloneye]

TXNT28 KNES 211218
TCSNTL

A. 03L (BRET)

B. 21/1130Z

C. 12.9N

D. 51.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
A 24 HR DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS ALSO 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kt.

AL, 03, 2023062112, , BEST, 0, 129N, 519W, 55, 1000, TS

[kevin]

TXNT28 KNES 211218
TCSNTL

A. 03L (BRET)

B. 21/1130Z

C. 12.9N

D. 51.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
A 24 HR DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS ALSO 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

T3.5 together with the improved visual imagery should be sufficient for an upgrade to 55 kt imo for the next advisory.

Edit: nevermind, they already did

[Category5Kaiju]

Just woke up...and wow. Bret really got its act together overnight. In a sense, it kind of reminds me of Fiona last year, where that storm struggled for a bit with shear but then suddenly got its act together once it found slightly better conditions.

[GCANE]

Strong outflow is taking a big bite out of shear.
Decimating those thunderstorms to the west at about 57W

[GCANE]

Looks like CAPE & TPW entrainment will significantly increase as Bret is just about to hit the islands.
Will be in the middle of an anti-cyclone.
Could see some decent intensification then.

[GCANE]

Looks like when it gets south of Jamica there maybe some light steering at 500mb to make it take a turn to the NW.