Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
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- cycloneye
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Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
Ok folks. Here is the July poll about how many named storms will form in the month and the members will have plenty of time to cast the vote as the poll will close on June 30th at 11:58 PM EDT. Let's see if this poll gets a lot of votes.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
Went with 1. Weak gulf storm around the middle of the month. Although I wouldn't be entirely surprised if another one forms at the end of the month
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- cycloneye
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
By June 25th and until the poll closes on 11:58 PM EDT on the 30h, will edit the poll to allow members who may want to change their vote to do so.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
I'm thinking 3, all "clunker's" without a hurricane in the bunch!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
Lots of people went with 2, and I'm in agreement with them.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
Chancing it and going with two - a storm in the subtropics and perhaps an MDR TS. I think we have a decent shot of seeing the latter due to how warm MDR SSTs are; if, say, a well-timed CCKW intercepts a well-defined TW then it's a possibility.
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- CFLHurricane
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
I think it’s going to be a hyperactive July with two quickly dissipating storms and yet somehow a barrel full of dead season predictions, as is tradition.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
2. Cindy and Don. One early July and one late July.
Perfectly balanced, as all things should be
Perfectly balanced, as all things should be
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
2. One in the MDR and one homegrown storm near the US of non-tropical origin
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
CyclonicFury wrote:2. One in the MDR and one homegrown storm near the US of non-tropical origin
Love how everyone starts treating July MDR activity as a given at this point
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
I'm tempted to vote "none"...and then be embarrassingly wrong.
Edited: Done.
Edited: Done.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
My vote for 2 might be too low after seeing how the season has started.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
I’m conservatively thinking 2-3. Early-season MDR activity doesn’t guarantee an active July; just look at 2021 and 2022, two back-to-back La Niña years. Maybe we could see a big spike in activity late in July with that modeled CCKW on the EPS weeklies, if it verifies. If the EPac wakes up in July, I’d expect the Atlantic to be mostly unfavorable and CCKW-dependent.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
My vote for 1 is very likely to bust at this point.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
cycloneye wrote:By June 25th and until the poll closes on 11:58 PM EDT on the 30h, will edit the poll to allow members who may want to change their vote to do so.
As I mentioned, the poll from today until it closes on June 30th at 11:58 PM EDT will allow members that have voted to change their vote.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
I’m thinking of going with 3 now. I believe we could see 1-2 early in July and another 1-2 in late July, coinciding with CCKW passes. Probably at least one in the MDR, perhaps the first hurricane of the season. However, Atlantic activity next month really depends on whether or not the EPac wakes up during a usually busy month.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
For JJA Nino 3.4 of +1.0+, here are the # of July storm geneses:
2015: 1
1997: 3
1987: 0
1972: 0
1965: 0
1957: 0
1905: 0
1902: 0
1877: 0
Average: 0.44
Due to the extra warm Atlantic and 4 of those years being pre satellite, I'll go up to 1 NS instead of down to 0 NS despite 7 of the 9 having none.
So, my pick is 1 NS.
2015: 1
1997: 3
1987: 0
1972: 0
1965: 0
1957: 0
1905: 0
1902: 0
1877: 0
Average: 0.44
Due to the extra warm Atlantic and 4 of those years being pre satellite, I'll go up to 1 NS instead of down to 0 NS despite 7 of the 9 having none.
So, my pick is 1 NS.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
Good participation in this poll that has option two the winner with 55%. Let's see in reallity, how things turn out this month.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
So much for my prediction. But so far it's just little Don, so I'm not embarrassed yet.
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in July?
Right now I'm feeling pretty good with my guess of 3 NS for the month of July. I've come to realize over the years that this exercise has transformed into a 60/40 proposition. 60% forecast based on anticipated conditions for genesis, and 40% forecast on what I believe that NHC will deem worthy of naming. Therefore with 1 (clunker) NS throughout the Atlantic basin thus far this month officially in the books, and given what I would consider the near-term overall marginally adverse conditions for development, my personal guess is that there will not be any additional disturbances that will develop into a "legit" TS until the final days of this month - best case. Given my enhanced formula of attributing a 40% weight toward NHC classifying one or more borderline cyclones (such as an E. Coast home-brew or another subtropical Atlantic gale), one additional NS clunker seems quite reasonable during the remaining 2 weeks. That would take us to 2 NS's for the month and I'd venture to guess that the E. Atlantic might pull out one short-lived "tropical origin" NS during the final days of the month.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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