2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1671550614248075268

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1671553830314491904

[WiscoWx02]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1671553830314491904?s=20

This is interesting because in 2015 the strongest storm of the season happened in the back half of the season…granted even in the most unfavorable conditions if a TC finds that small nook/cranny it can really take off. I agree with this tweet, I get the feeling this isn’t going to be your typically El Nino, especially with the -PDO present.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1671559255562891265

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1671577125151711232

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1671587633741574144

[Ivanhater]

I have a feeling we will still see a big lull in July and possibly first half of August

[aspen]

I have a feeling we will still see a big lull in July and possibly first half of August

I also think we’ll have yet another July lull because I’ve gotten used to it now, but if the EPS weekly’s late July CCKW verifies, the end of the month into early August could see another spike in activity. Still a long way out though.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1671577125151711232?s=20

Still having trouble imagining a hyperactive season honestly. I'm sold on above average but hyperactive seems like a tall order still with a strong El Niño

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1671628603883405312

[Woofde]

Holy cow, that is the definition of an extreme outlier. Not a single other line on the chart is even close.

[Category5Kaiju]

At least as of now, with the activity we're seeing in the Atlantic and the sst anomaly configuration being a perfect, ferocious +AMO, I might as well believe that we're still in a La Nina

It's almost like the Atlantic doesn't give a rat's butt that the equatorial EPAC is considerably warmer than average at this point

[Cpv17]

At least as of now, with the activity we're seeing in the Atlantic and the sst anomaly configuration being a perfect, ferocious +AMO, I might as well believe that we're still in a La Nina

It's almost like the Atlantic doesn't give a rat's butt that the equatorial EPAC is considerably warmer than average at this point

I’m still hesitant on it being a busy season. I’m not sold yet.

[Hammy]

Crazy to look at this and realize it's June in an El Nino year

[Kazmit]

I have a feeling we will still see a big lull in July and possibly first half of August

I've noticed that this happens most years.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1671615002560671744

[Cachondo23]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1671628603883405312

I was in BVI this past weekend, water is very warm. It is not refreshing at all. Around 29-30 Celsius. Can’t believe we are still in June.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think it will be also important to watch how the EPAC performs in the coming weeks, especially with the anticipation of its first storm or two forming. If they perform very well and even become major hurricanes, then it would be clear that El Nino is doing its duty for the EPAC. But if they struggle with shear and dry air (especially with the -PMM/-PDO), then that could really raise some eyebrows (along with the fact that the Atlantic literally just produced two storms of deep tropical origin in the month of June).

[cycloneye]

July may not be inactive and August,watch out.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1672033700358287360

[gatorcane]

Some aclimatological MDR activity could be a harbinger of an above normal or hyperactive Atlantic season, but a stout wall of shear looks to be sitting around Lesser Antilles and points wests which should be the demise of any system that tries to head west. That outcome would be supported by climatology but with an El Niño, and possibly a strong one, expected during the Atlantic peak months, what we are seeing now could also be a rinse and repeat come later, namely activity over the far eastern Atlantic and MDR only for systems to get sheared and struggle if they try to make a run west, unless they recurve and head north into the open Atlantic where better conditions would be present.

Compared to past El Ninos shear is currently much lower across the Caribbean & Atlantic MDR where it is usually fairly strong already in June as the El Nino cranks up. What is different this time is that where we usually find less wind shear during El Ninos is across the subtropical Atlantic, is the other way around this time so far. Time will tell but climate models continue to show much lower shear than you would expect during a moderate to strong El Nino during JAS period.

https://i.imgur.com/hdxMXj5.gif

The Atlantic may very well crank out a number of Cape Verde storms this year due to higher than normal SSTs there but the shear zone should reside during the climatological peaks months across the Caribbean due to the El Niño. The configuration tends to put Florida and the Gulf coast as well as the Caribbean islands less at risk with a higher risk to Bermuda and the east coast of the US particularly the mid-Atlantic north.

The other thing to note is the persistent, anomalously strong troughiness we have seen across the Eastern US with west to southwest windflow across the Gulf, Florida, and out into the Bahamas which we have seen for basically the past month. At times we were seeing west winds with gusts to 30mph across portions of the peninsula in June indicative of a complete lack of any kind of Bermuda High. This pattern is common during El Niños and could be an indicator that threats from the east for Florida and the SE US might be substantially reduced and with the shear zone across the Caribbean, threats from the south could be as well.