ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Water Vapor SAT showing the feeder band improving and extending to the SA Coast

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1671600777079447566



 https://twitter.com/WeatherOutl00k/status/1671601509878882305

[StonePlace]

Seems like every time someone states Bret is not doing well, he starts firing off hot towers. Kind of makes you wonder if he's reading the forum.

(How about joining, Bret? )

He would be banned around Friday AM after strengthening and stating that the sheer was actually minimal, contradicting every El Nino proponent in this thread currently modeling this like its 2005-2015.

[Weatherboy1]

Still amazed to see Bret battling like this, not to mention the August/September-like wave train behind him. Going to be a LONG season of watching and tracking if this persists!

[Weatherwatcher2018]

I’m surprised the the govt of Barbados hasn’t issued a tropical storm warning

[GCANE]

The high helicity of the sustaining hot tower is a direct result of a very strong updraft.
Building a vertical vort.
It looks like small gravity waves are appearing in the resultant cirrus (CDO) and its layering on top of the older CDO.
Text book example of how a hot tower pushes shear out of the way.

[abajan]

I’m surprised the the govt of Barbados hasn’t issued a tropical storm warning

They probably should. I'm more than a bit concerned about that developing feeder band to the southeast of Bret's center.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

I’m surprised the the govt of Barbados hasn’t issued a tropical storm warning

They probably should. I'm more than a bit concerned about that developing feeder band to the southeast of Bret's center.

Well are they gonna do it tomorrow during the middle of the work day and the storm

[Hammy]

Reminds me of Fiona last year, large system with a lot of convection that's managing to maintain itself despite the shear. That Fiona was in September, and this is June, is not a good sign for the rest of the season.

[TheAustinMan]

The following SSMIS microwave image of Bret provides a look at the potential of the MDR region in aiding Bret's convective vigor. The storm's powerful mid-level circulation appears to have attempted (or is actively attempting) to organize a partial eyewall (or some sort of analogous structure), though persistent wind shear has prevented that feature from aligning with the surface circulation which is displaced slightly to the west (note the position and curvature of low-level clouds, which show up as turquoise filaments). It is fortunate that wind shear is expected to increase substantially rather than decrease. The last recon flight and the latest microwave data did not point to the possibility of the center reforming east under the MLC, but regardless, hopefully the continued increase in shear makes that prospect increasingly unlikely.

SSMIS microwave image of Bret at 21:40 UTC. Source: FNMOC

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

On IR it kinda looks like the center is in the dry slot between the two blobs. Am I seeing that right?
If so, it's probably gonna need to close that gap if it wants to get any stronger, although 55kts is already hugely impressive for a June MDR storm

[cheezyWXguy]

On IR it kinda looks like the center is in the dry slot between the two blobs. Am I seeing that right?
If so, it's probably gonna need to close that gap if it wants to get any stronger, although 55kts is already hugely impressive for a June MDR storm

I would say as a general rule that looking at vis/shortwave is gonna give a better chance of accurately locating the center than regular IR, but Bret’s current appearance makes it difficult to pinpoint on that as well. Looking at the microwave pass above, it looks like it’s still near or under the western blob.

[aspen]

Center at roughly 13.36N/54.56W, looks to be steady at 55kt/1000mb.

[GCANE]

Latest GFS is showing that NtoS 250mb wind (shear wall) that Bret is supposed to run into in the mid Carib is now moving west ahead of Bret and weakening as it moves toward Central America.

Mid Carib is where TCs start to tap into EPAC moisture. One of the main contributors why RI usually occurs in the West Carib

[Nimbus]

On IR it kinda looks like the center is in the dry slot between the two blobs. Am I seeing that right?
If so, it's probably gonna need to close that gap if it wants to get any stronger, although 55kts is already hugely impressive for a June MDR storm

The tops of Bret are being sheared north tonight.
Pretty impressive 55 knot tropical storm.
You know the drill prepare for a hurricane if you are under a tropical storm track.

[GCANE]

Center at roughly 13.36N/54.56W, looks to be steady at 55kt/1000mb.

Pretty much right on forecast track

[aspen]

Transmission cuts out as it goes through the max winds and we don’t get the data. Classic AF recon lol. This might be a 60 kt TS now, but the pressure has remained steady. Pretty weak winds in the SW quad show that the structure is poor.

Edit: nvm, the data loaded after a while

[GCANE]

They are going to make a run from the NW.
Might see something close to Cat 1 on this run.