ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2023062200, , BEST, 0, 134N, 546W, 55, 999, TS

[GCANE]

65 knots at 990mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-0027.png

[Weatherwatcher2018]

65 knots at 990mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-0027.png

What does this mean? Is it a hurricane?

[zzzh]

No.

[Hammy]

65 knots at 990mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-0027.png

What does this mean? Is it a hurricane?

990mb is the pressure height--I'm not sure exactly what elevation that is, probably around flight level or so, and means this could make a run at hurricane intensity if it can deep a bit more and bring those winds down to the surface.

[jfk08c]

65 knots at 990mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-0027.png

What does this mean? Is it a hurricane?

Needs sustained surface level winds of 65kts or greater to be classified a hurricane

[Sciencerocks]

Hurricane force sustain winds a few hundred feet above the surface. This is of course reduced to 55 or so knots in line with the rest of the data once we reach the standard surface level for judging wind speed at the surface.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

11 Pm Dominica has a storm warning now, still nothing for Barbados, I hope the government doesn’t regret this tomorrow

[cheezyWXguy]

Hurricane force sustain winds a few hundred feet above the surface. This is of course reduced to 55 or so knots in line with the rest of the data once we reach the standard surface level for judging wind speed at the surface.

To be honest I don’t even know if that justifies the current the current intensity, as dropsondes measure instantaneous winds, aka gusts. The rest of the data gathered seems a lot more useful in justifying the intensity.

Bret is probably at peak now, unless the shear lets up unexpectedly. The restriction of outer banding and inability for cdo convection to rotate up shear means it’s pretty unlikely we’ll see a hurricane out of this. Still, as others have mentioned Bret’s intensity this early and this far east is impressive.

[Woofde]

Bret's future may not be so bright, but for June this is a very pretty TC. The gravity waves on IR are popping out right now.

[Sciencerocks]

[Landy]

Lol recon just found hurricane-force SFMRs and dropsonde supports 993mb.

[Landy]

Dropsonde in question.

[Landy]

VDM reports that Bret has an eyewall open to the south. If it were daytime it wouldn't be so quiet in here.

[Hammy]

Rooting for an upgrade since it won't likely stay at that intensity for long, data seems to support it and it wasn't rain contaminated either

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1671751502472290304

[IsabelaWeather]

Bret is looking pretty good. Expanding CDO. Can it still move north of its forecasted track if it gets stronger? Would be really nice to get into some of the rain here in PR. Our reservoir is very low and near water restrictions.

[Sciencerocks]

about 10 years ago that smrf would of resulted in this being upgraded but anymore they expect a system to also have the support of flight level. We will see what they do. Me, I believe that the surface winds are likely stronger as Derek Ortt pointed out on twitter because of exploding cell near the center and this has greatly enhanced the winds near the surface. Sometimes systems have stronger winds near the surface and flight level to surface reduction isn't always the best way to estimate intensity....So that will be up to the nhc!

[LemieT]

These storms love to show out at night when most people are in their bed. I'm in Barbados and already we're in the outer part of the circulation. Wind is light, clouds out of the NE and light rain. I'm off to bed now, today is going to be very interesting indeed...

AND IT'S ONLY JUNE

[MarioProtVI]

NHC sticks with 60 kt. Good call as I’m not entirely sold on the chances it’s a hurricane. Maybe it is. I don’t know but the sudden drop seems slightly suspicious as it could’ve been a mesovort (considering recon apparently avoided the actual center on its way out which further raises my doubt). Still the strongest June MDR storm in 90 years.