ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

I think this looks just as good as Arlene. Do you agree?

[HurricaneEnzo]

I would say it looks marginally better than Arlene. Looks like your typical June sheared 35-40kts TS to me. It is in an atypical location though.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8633/0leZzz.gif

I think this looks just as good as Arlene. Do you agree?

[Hammy]

Looks worse than yesterday, and probably peaked before it was actually upgraded.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

My estimate 40 knots

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak and Best Track up to TS Cindy.

A. 04L (NONAME)

B. 23/0000Z

C. 11.3N

D. 44.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED <1/2 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN
A DT OF 3.0. LAST VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW
GOOD W-SW QUADS AND POOR ELSEWHERE. ERLY SHEAR IMPACTING SYSTEM. MET=2.0
AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

AL, 04, 2023062300, , BEST, 0, 116N, 445W, 35, 1006, TS

[Hammy]

Obviously first time we've had two MDR storms in June (let alone at the same time!) but when's the last time we had simultaneous June storms at all?

[aspen]

Obviously first time we've had two MDR storms in June (let alone at the same time!) but when's the last time we had simultaneous June storms at all?

I think it was…Bret and Cindy in 2017. This June has just been a more impressive version of June 2017.

[Category5Kaiju]

Obviously first time we've had two MDR storms in June (let alone at the same time!) but when's the last time we had simultaneous June storms at all?

I think it was…Bret and Cindy in 2017. This June has just been a more impressive version of June 2017.

Operationally, Bret 2017 dissipated at 12:00 UTC on June 20. Cindy 2017 developed as of 18:00 UTC on June 20. So they basically missed each other by less than 10 hours.

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

Pretty close to a TS strength if not already, but a very well defined circulation right by the convection.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So this would technically be the fourth tropical/subtropical storm of the season. More-or-less on par with 2020, a little behind 2016 at this point.

[NDG]

Score so far:

+AMO: 4
+ENSO: 0

[cycloneye]

Historic moment here. No other June on record has had 2 storms forming in MDR.

[Teban54]

Historic moment here. No other June on record has had 2 storms forming in MDR.

Let alone existing as TSes at the same time!

Even though technically Bret has already moved past 60W (which some definitions of the MDR use), and right at the boundary of the Caribbean.

[Teban54]

Obviously first time we've had two MDR storms in June (let alone at the same time!) but when's the last time we had simultaneous June storms at all?

1968's Cat 1 Brenda (subtropics) and TS Candy (Gulf):
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1672097384828944386




Interestingly, 1968 was a developing El Nino year with a very active June (two Cat 1s), but followed by a lull until mid-August, with the bulk of the activity only after mid-September, and with no major hurricanes. Not really any similarities with this year, though.

[Hammy]

Something we may never see again in our lifetimes

[Teban54]

Hmm...

[tiger_deF]

Cindy's outflow is still relatively restricted, but rhe convective pattern looks fantastic as of right now. Would not be suprised if we get our first hurricane of the season out of this system.

[kevin]

Cindy is looking great right now, wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds Bret's intensity and becomes a low-end cat 1.