Texas Summer 2023

[bubba hotep]

Welp, another storm misses MBY. Crazy bad luck so far this month; less than 1" of rain here at my house while stations not far from here have 3-4".

[Brent]

I’m liking what I’m seeing first part of July.

One of our mets up here is optimistic about that timeframe too we will see

Still many tens of thousands without power here in the city of Tulsa. 5 days now

Did they pull in crews from other states to help? Hope the AC comes back on soon. :-O

Yeah I've seen people talking about crews from Michigan and New Jersey. Still over 20k tonight. The amount of damage is absolutely insane still. It's everywhere and tomorrow night will be a week and the heat is really going to ramp up tomorrow. The last couple days haven't been terrible

[rwfromkansas]

Thought a complex was coming? Dry as a bone.

[bubba hotep]

Thought a complex was coming? Dry as a bone.

The 00z models dropped it after showing it for a couple of days. I didn't dig too much into it, but it looked like the storms yesterday in Oklahoma and NTX left a stabilized atmosphere in their wake, and there wasn't really anything for new storms to work with last night.

[Iceresistance]

Thought a complex was coming? Dry as a bone.

The 00z models dropped it after showing it for a couple of days. I didn't dig too much into it, but it looked like the storms yesterday in Oklahoma and NTX left a stabilized atmosphere in their wake, and there wasn't really anything for new storms to work with last night.

Yeah, I may not get anything because of the inversion here despite an upgrade to a Marginal risk here.

[Iceresistance]

The Cockroach Death Ridge falls apart by the end of this month on the 12z GFS, they don't last long in El Nino years!

[Texas Snowman]

681
NOUS44 KLUB 241749
PNSLUB
TXZ021>044-250600-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...NWS Damage Survey for 06/21/23 Tornadoes and Damaging Winds...

.Overview...
A supercell thunderstorm developed in the far southern Texas
Panhandle during the late afternoon of Wednesday, June 21, 2023.
This supercell moved south-southeastward through the western
Rolling Plains during the evening and eventually moved into the
Texas Big Country and the San Angelo National Weather Service
forecast area around 11 pm CDT. This storm quickly intensified in
Motley County just north of Matador, TX where the first of five
reported tornadoes occurred around 7:50 pm CDT, however no
survey was conducted as no damage was reported. This storm then
produced a third of a mile wide tornado that went through the west
side of Matador around 8 pm CDT killing 4 people and
injuring 15 others. Peak wind gusts corresponding to the observed
damage were estimated to be in the 145 mph to 165 mph range,
resulting in an EF-3 rating. This rating was determined through
consultation with engineers from the Texas Tech University
National Wind Institute, who also performed a damage survey in
Matador. It also produced extremely large hail with the largest
stone measuring 4.5” in diameter on the east side of Matador.

The storm continued moving to the south-southeast where an 80 mph
gust was reported at the Roaring Springs West Texas Mesonet site
at 8:22 pm CDT, most likely associated with a rear flank downdraft
surge. As it entered northern Dickens County another tornado was
reported by an off-duty NWS employee approximately 5.5 miles
northeast of Afton, however no damage was reported with this
tornado. A second supercell produced a brief tornado west-
southwest of Matador at 8:37 pm CDT that also produced no known
damage. Shortly afterward, that supercell began to merge with the
initial supercell with the fifth and final tornado being reported
on US Highway 82 approximately 8 miles east of Dickens and no
damage was observed with this tornado either. As the storm
continued to move to the south-southeast a broad rear flank
downdraft was noted on radar with the peak measured gust of 109
mph at the West Texas Mesonet site in Jayton at 10:07 pm CDT with
19 minutes of continuous severe wind gusts. These strong winds
also occurred with hail up to four inches in diameter leading to
damage observed along U.S. Highway 70 in northeast Kent County
including in and around the towns of Girard and Jayton.


.Tornado North of Matador in Motley County...

Rating: EF-Unknown
Estimated Peak Wind: N/A
Path Length /statute/: N/A
Path Width /maximum/: N/A
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 06/21/2023
Start Time: 7:50 PM CDT
Start Location: 6.9 N Matador / Motley County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 34.12 / -100.85

End Date: 06/21/2023
End Time: 7:51 PM CDT
End Location: 6.9 N Matador / Motley County/ TX
End Lat/Lon: 34.12 / -100.85

Survey Summary:
The location is approximately 7 miles north of Matador, TX. Storm
chasers stated that there was a brief touchdown over open country.
Point location estimated by radar as there was no known damage.


.Tornado in Matador in Motley County...

Rating: EF-3
Estimated Peak Wind: 165 mph
Path Length /statute/: 9.4 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 0.34 miles
Fatalities: 4
Injuries: 15

Start Date: 06/21/2023
Start Time: 7:51 PM CDT
Start Location: 6.9 N Matador / Motley County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 34.12 / -100.85

End Date: 06/21/2023
End Time: 8:09 PM CDT
End Location: 1.5 S Matador / Motley County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 33.99 / -100.82

Survey Summary:
The tornado touched down north of town in an open field east of
State Highway 70. The tornado then tracked to the south through
open country until it reached just north of Farm to Market 94
where it damaged a few power poles. It then traveled to the south-
southeast where it destroyed a house on the far north side of the
city. Three vehicles at this residence were rolled at least a few
hundred yards away from the house with two of the vehicles unable
to be located. The tornado continued to track south along State
Highway 70 where it damaged two additional houses and rolled
another truck several hundred feet. The tornado then tracked back
to the southwest and crossed State Highway 70 and damaged several
houses northwest of the intersection of State Highway 70 and U.S.
Highway 62, as well as rolling several vehicles including a
tractor- trailer. The tornado then crossed U.S. Highway 62 between
the Texas Department of Transportation facility and State Highway
70 where it rolled an RV, destroyed a house and steel framed
retail store, and partially collapsed a power substation. The
tornado continued traveling to the southeast paralleling State
Highway 70 and damaged several more single family residences with
another house being destroyed. The tornado then crossed State
Highway 70 just south of Cross Lane where it destroyed a 500 foot
tall radio tower as well as some light poles. The tornado then
dissipated over an open field southeast of the Matador rest stop.


.Tornado near Afton in Dickens County...

Rating: EF-Unknown
Estimated Peak Wind: N/A
Path Length /statute/: N/A
Path Width /maximum/: N/A
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 06/21/2023
Start Time: 8:36 PM CDT
Start Location: 5.5 NE Afton / Dickens County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 33.82 / -100.73

End Date: 06/21/2023
End Time: 8:37 PM CDT
End Location: 5.5 NE Afton / Dickens County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 33.82 / -100.73

Survey Summary:
An off-duty NWS employee relayed photos of a tornado
approximately 5.5 miles northeast of Afton over open country.
Point location estimated by radar as no damage was reported.


.Tornado Southwest of Matador in Motley County...

Rating: EF-Unknown
Estimated Peak Wind: N/A
Path Length /statute/: 2
Path Width /maximum/: N/A
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 06/21/2023
Start Time: 8:37 PM CDT
Start Location: 3.9 WSW Matador / Motley County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 34.01 / -100.89

End Date: 06/21/2023
End Time: 8:40 PM CDT
End Location: 4 SW Matador / Motley County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 33.97 / -100.88

Survey Summary:
The location is approximately 4 miles west of Matador, TX. Media
streamed a tornado that was located west of Matador. Location
estimated by radar as no damage was found.


.Tornado near Dickens in Dickens County...

Rating: EF-Unknown
Estimated Peak Wind: N/A
Path Length /statute/: N/A
Path Width /maximum/: N/A
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 06/21/2023
Start Time: 9:18 PM CDT
Start Location: 8 E Dickens / Dickens County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 33.62 / -100.72

End Date: 06/21/2023
End Time: 9:19 PM CDT
End Location: 8 E Dickens / Dickens County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 33.62 / -100.72

Survey Summary:
A storm chaser reported a tornado crossing US highway 82 east of
Dickens. Point location estimated by the spotter’s location and
radar as no damage was reported.


.Thunderstorm Winds in Girard and Jayton…

Estimated Peak Wind: 110-120 mph
Path Length /statute/: N/A
Path Width /maximum/: N/A
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 06/21/2023
Start Time: 9:30 PM CDT
Start Location: 1 W Spur / Dickens County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 33.48 / -100.88

End Date: 06/21/2023
End Time: 10:45 PM CDT
End Location: 13 SW Aspermont / Stonewall County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 32.96 / -100.38

Survey Summary:
The West Texas Mesonet site near Spur reported an 84 mph gust at
9:32 pm CDT however there was no significant damage noted in Spur.
Rear flank downdraft winds traveled to the south and southeast. In
Girard, the NWS survey team found two homes that had their roofs
partially or completely removed which is commensurate with wind
gusts of 95-120 mph. The survey team continued to travel southeast
on highway 70 but came across no other damage indicators until
they arrived in Jayton. In town, several smaller outbuildings were
completely destroyed along with some peeling back of porch roofs.
This damage had an estimated wind speed of 60-80 mph. The West
Texas Mesonet site just south of Jayton reported a 109 mph peak
wind gust at 10:07 pm CDT. Additional damage to trees and partial
peeling of a home’s roof was found on FM 1083 southwest of Jayton
leading to estimated wind speeds of 65-90 mph. No additional
damage was found south or southeast into Stonewall County.


&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

[bubba hotep]

North Texas has to suffer through next week and then temps look to return to normal with a flip back to a wetter pattern around the 4th.

But until then

[rwfromkansas]

Hope it cools down before the 4th since we will be going to the Fort Worth event.

[Cpv17]

North Texas has to suffer through next week and then temps look to return to normal with a flip back to a wetter pattern around the 4th.

But until then

You really think the pattern will flip? I’m hesitant

[Brent]

North Texas has to suffer through next week and then temps look to return to normal with a flip back to a wetter pattern around the 4th.

But until then

You really think the pattern will flip? I’m hesitant

At least up here they are still talking about it. 80s and storm chances next weekend after triple digits mid week

[rwfromkansas]

I am excited it appears Kansas will provide us some relief next weekend. My brother runs the fireworks at a rural private lake there (you can actually get a little lake cabin for just $70k there compared to expensive houses here) and it’s next Saturday. Some years are miserable or even worse than here at times, so bring on the 70s.

Pray a switch actually happens for DFW.

Don’t need 70s. But even upper 80s would be welcome.

[Iceresistance]

Well, expect the Heat Dome to return in July, the SOI index is spiking. (This was expected by the models, however)

[Cpv17]

Well, expect the Heat Dome to return in July, the SOI index is spiking. (This was expected by the models, however)

The 12z GFS is downright ugly.

[Iceresistance]

Well, expect the Heat Dome to return in July, the SOI index is spiking. (This was expected by the models, however)

The 12z GFS is downright ugly.

Not even a single drop of rain for Southern Texas.

GFS really wants to repeat summer 2022

[Iceresistance]

Dewpoint is 77°F, this is just insanity...

[South Texas Storms]

Well, expect the Heat Dome to return in July, the SOI index is spiking. (This was expected by the models, however)

The 12z GFS is downright ugly.

Ensembles are much better. Ridge breaks down by the 4th of July with moisture surging in from the Gulf around that time as well.

[captainbarbossa19]

Well, expect the Heat Dome to return in July, the SOI index is spiking. (This was expected by the models, however)

The 12z GFS is downright ugly.

Ensembles are much better. Ridge breaks down by the 4th of July with moisture surging in from the Gulf around that time as well.

It needs to break down. It's becoming even a problem here. 97 expected high today in Starkville with a current dewpoint of 79 and a 110 heat index. I'm looking at highs of 100-102 by the end of this upcoming week.

[Cpv17]

Well, expect the Heat Dome to return in July, the SOI index is spiking. (This was expected by the models, however)

The 12z GFS is downright ugly.

Ensembles are much better. Ridge breaks down by the 4th of July with moisture surging in from the Gulf around that time as well.

My TWC app has rain returning by the first part of July.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW officially hit 100 (1st time this year) @ 4pm for the 1st day in what looks to be a 7-10 day streak of 101+ temperatures