EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2023062718, , BEST, 0, 100N, 920W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep922023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Kingarabian]

Let's see how strong it gets. Models were liking this one more in previous runs.

[ElectricStorm]

Latest GFS brings this pretty close to the Mexican coast. Hopefully it stays far enough west to avoid any significant impacts.

[cycloneye]

Let's see how strong it gets. Models were liking this one more in previous runs.

Maybe Adrian has a negative effect down the road?

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico and Central America (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2023062800, , BEST, 0, 101N, 929W, 20, 1009, DB

[Yellow Evan]

I don’t think this will be as strong as GFS/ECMWF are depicting because of shear from Adrian, which they are potentially underdoing the short term strength of.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922023 06/28/23 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 37 46 55 61 58 53 54 57 58 59 59 61
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 37 46 55 61 58 53 46 36 30 32 32 34
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 32 34 32 30 26 26 27 30 33 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 11 11 14 15 17 15 15 10 13 13 10 8 8 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 12 12 11 2 0 0 0 10
SHEAR DIR 9 4 349 7 34 25 18 34 28 7 330 22 39 98 124 165 130
SST (C) 29.3 29.6 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.5 30.4 29.7 28.8 28.6 29.4 29.3 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 165 168 169 169 168 167 166 169 167 160 151 150 159 158 133
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.2 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -50.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 8 6 9 7 10 7 10 6 6
700-500 MB RH 82 79 78 78 82 84 86 87 83 81 78 75 74 77 72 72 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 26 13 0 -13 -13 -9 -9 -4 7 5 19 43 57 76 99 94 73
200 MB DIV 88 62 36 20 41 71 95 115 122 115 85 71 86 25 42 12 -26
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 1 0 -1 -3 -4 2 -3 -4 0 -7 -5 -11
LAND (KM) 461 474 490 500 504 420 347 293 209 134 68 -11 -67 -79 23 203 113
LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.9 12.9 13.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.6 94.3 94.9 95.6 96.9 98.3 99.5 100.5 101.3 101.8 102.4 103.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 6 8 9 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 13 15 20 24 30 37 35 38 38 31 27 20 12 11 23 15 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 7. 17. 27. 35. 39. 43. 46. 50. 53. 55. 58. 60.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. -0. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 17. 26. 35. 41. 38. 33. 34. 37. 38. 39. 39. 41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 92.9

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.96 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.1% 64.2% 34.9% 23.6% 9.8% 36.1% 51.9% 60.4%
Bayesian: 0.3% 12.1% 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 7.0% 12.7% 17.7%
Consensus: 4.8% 25.4% 13.0% 8.3% 3.3% 14.4% 21.5% 26.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

South of Southern Mexico and Central America (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Extratropical94]

South of Southern Mexico and Central America (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and
southern Mexico. Continued development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly
parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Extratropical94]

12Z BT

EP, 92, 2023062812, , BEST, 0, 111N, 948W, 20, 1008, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Models bullish on this again but Im still skeptical due to Adrians size and the proximity it'll have to Mexican terrain.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO.

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2023062818, , BEST, 0, 116N, 958W, 25, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly
parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system during the next several days. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2023062900, , BEST, 0, 132N, 963W, 25, 1007, LO