2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Kingarabian]

I don't remember when the MDR started the season warm and ended up cooling through peak season. I don't think that ever happened. Especially with the current anomalies.

[Ntxw]

We also have to remember that anomalies are not SSTs. Made a post before, warmer than normal in May is not equal to warmer than normal in September where actual SSTs are warmer later. Rate of SSTa warming isn't linear alongside climo. Atmospheric conditions is still arguably the most important factor.

But do agree, one of the more unique events regard SSTa changes.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1674154295179071491

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1674154295179071491

Starting to think we’re gonna see our third year in a row with anomalous early MDR/Caribbean activity before a dead July.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1674218541019439105

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1674218541019439105

All of the Canadian wildfire smoke might be helping the +AMO pattern by cooling the NW Atlantic, a stark contrast to last year with the insane marine heat wave up there that led to wave-breaking and a dead August.

[ChrisH-UK]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1674218541019439105

All of the Canadian wildfire smoke might be helping the +AMO pattern by cooling the NW Atlantic, a stark contrast to last year with the insane marine heat wave up there that led to wave-breaking and a dead August.

Actually that could be true, pollution can significantly reduce the amount of solar energy reaching the surface as known examples of this the Asian Brown Cloud, the pollution over South East Asia and India studies have shown it reduces the solar energy getting to the surface by 10%. Even a small amount of smoke could reduce sea temperatures if over a long period of time. The pollution can also have a positive effect in that it reduces the amount of Hurricanes. It was factors like these that help the 2020 season to be so active with the reduction of pollution globally due to global covid shutdowns.

Indian Ocean Brown cloud Study - https://www.jstor.org/stable/24106918
NOAA Reducing Pollution increases Hurricanes - https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMI ... hurricanes

[LarryWx]

OISST MDR SSTa warmed significantly today and is back up to +1.303. The other two datasets warmed slightly.

[Category5Kaiju]

An interesting thing I just found out recently: check out the timelines of the 1899 and the 1951 hurricane seasons (I'm using those years as I see those years being frequently compared with this year). It's very likely just a coincidence, but both years uniquely featured non-eventful Julys, followed by a storm that formed at the very end of the month and then a more impactful Category 4 hurricane in August right afterwards.

1899:


1951:

[toad strangler]

Heading into July you can see the transition begin from almost all far W basin "home grown" genesis in June towards the central and eastern sections into the MDR in July. The latter I would imagine are mostly later in July. Still plenty of home grown action though historically in the GOM and off the SE US coast in July.

[cycloneye]

Mid july activity?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1674873781595283457

[MetroMike]

Mid july activity?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1674873781595283457

Say goodbye to trying to read Twitter without an account today and who knows WTF?

[gatorcane]

Looks like El NIño slowly catching on to affect the Atlantic.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1673426604616454144

I continue think the Nino will greatly inhibit significant development across the Gulf and Caribbean. I do expect some sheared and struggling systems to move through these regions but still believe the better conditions for the Atlantic will remain further east where these anomalously warm SSTs are. So potentially active Cape Verde with recurving hurricanes there but less active further west across the Gulf and Caribbean. Threat to mid-Atlantic / Carolinas and points north along the EC, Canada, and Bermuda remains. Also need to watch the Cape Verde islands and Azores:

[Teban54]

Mid july activity?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1674873781595283457

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1674884914976546824



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1674939632767709189

[cheezyWXguy]

I must be misremembering but I thought July was already expected to be unfavorable until a cckw comes through at the end of the month?

[Category5Kaiju]

:uarrow: I must be misremembering but I thought July was already expected to be unfavorable until a cckw comes through at the end of the month?

I think there were some rumblings amongst wx folks that because June was abnormally active, that July would be the same. I think there was quite a bit of shock after seeing 2 MDR systems in June that that meant a busy July too. Of course a busy June doesn't necessarily mean busy July. In fact, I showed this several posts ago but the close analog years being used for this year would suggest a dead July, followed by activity picking up at the very end of the month with an active August.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: I must be misremembering but I thought July was already expected to be unfavorable until a cckw comes through at the end of the month?

I think there were some rumblings amongst wx folks that because June was abnormally active, that July would be the same. I think there was quite a bit of shock after seeing 2 MDR systems in June that that meant a busy July too. Of course a busy June doesn't necessarily mean busy July. In fact, I showed this several posts ago but the close analog years being used for this year would suggest a dead July, followed by activity picking up at the very end of the month with an active August.

Not sure the who on those weather folks you speak of but id venture to say that anyone who has been following the tropics on a year in and year out basis know that early season action rarely is attached to conditions further down the season line. There are always anomalous happenstance (we'll see on this mid to laye July signal) for sure but i still look to 8/15 to 8/20 for the ramp up of activity.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1675568632191918080




For those who may not see Tylers Stanfield twit, here is the message.

After an active June, it appears likely that TC development will be limited in the Atlantic during the next 2 weeks.

A combination of trade wind surges, active TCs in the EPAC, and upward motion being out of phase will make the Atlantic more hostile until mid-late July.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: I must be misremembering but I thought July was already expected to be unfavorable until a cckw comes through at the end of the month?

I think there were some rumblings amongst wx folks that because June was abnormally active, that July would be the same. I think there was quite a bit of shock after seeing 2 MDR systems in June that that meant a busy July too. Of course a busy June doesn't necessarily mean busy July. In fact, I showed this several posts ago but the close analog years being used for this year would suggest a dead July, followed by activity picking up at the very end of the month with an active August.

Not sure the who on those weather folks you speak of but id venture to say that anyone who has been following the tropics on a year in and year out basis know that early season action rarely is attached to conditions further down the season line. There are always anomalous happenstance (we'll see on this mid to laye July signal) for sure but i still look to 8/15 to 8/20 for the ramp up of activity.

It absolutely is if said systems form in the deep tropics lol.

[SFLcane]

Oh…

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1675585845984899072