2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1675581682693414912

[weeniepatrol]

Yeah there's a big distinction between your typical baroclinic two-day June spinup in the subtropics or Gulf and tropical waves just developing in the MDR. William Gray associated the latter with above-average seasonal activity, whereas the former has no correlation. It's because 95% of major hurricanes form from tropical waves and not baroclinic tcgenesis and since MDR development is inherently indicative of anomalously favorable conditions for these specific disturbances (tropical waves) given the time of year, when every single parameter should be staunchly unfavorable.

[AnnularCane]

Yeah there's a big distinction between your typical baroclinic two-day June spinup in the subtropics or Gulf and tropical waves just developing in the MDR. William Gray associated the latter with above-average seasonal activity, whereas the former has no correlation. It's because 95% of major hurricanes form from tropical waves and not baroclinic tcgenesis and since MDR development is inherently indicative of anomalously favorable conditions for these specific disturbances (tropical waves) given the time of year, when every single parameter should be staunchly unfavorable.

I had read some old posts from 2005 recently, and some were insisting that the season would likely not be active because of the early activity (there were even some comparisons to 1997). Of course most of the early activity in 1997 was NOT in the MDR, in contrast to 2005. Not saying this will be another 2005 by any means, of course. But it does seem like it should be enough to make one at least slightly nervous about this year. And in any case, I'm thinking at this time that it's not going to be another 1997 either.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah there's a big distinction between your typical baroclinic two-day June spinup in the subtropics or Gulf and tropical waves just developing in the MDR. William Gray associated the latter with above-average seasonal activity, whereas the former has no correlation. It's because 95% of major hurricanes form from tropical waves and not baroclinic tcgenesis and since MDR development is inherently indicative of anomalously favorable conditions for these specific disturbances (tropical waves) given the time of year, when every single parameter should be staunchly unfavorable.

I had read some old posts from 2005 recently, and some were insisting that the season would likely not be active because of the early activity (there were even some comparisons to 1997). Of course most of the early activity in 1997 was NOT in the MDR, in contrast to 2005. Not saying this will be another 2005 by any means, of course. But it does seem like it should be enough to make one at least slightly nervous about this year. And in any case, I'm thinking at this time that it's not going to be another 1997 either.

1997, imho, is not a good analog for this year at all due to the simple fact that that year was a Super El Nino, with a +PDO look. There are hardly any signs of such a powerful El Nino for this year, and the PDO is still very negative. I'm also pretty sure that 2023's West African Monsoon is going to be much stronger and wetter that the same in 1997. I'm honestly not sure about the basis behind why 1997 is being used as a comparison year with 2023, especially given both years have generally behaved very differently.

[toad strangler]

I think there were some rumblings amongst wx folks that because June was abnormally active, that July would be the same. I think there was quite a bit of shock after seeing 2 MDR systems in June that that meant a busy July too. Of course a busy June doesn't necessarily mean busy July. In fact, I showed this several posts ago but the close analog years being used for this year would suggest a dead July, followed by activity picking up at the very end of the month with an active August.

Not sure the who on those weather folks you speak of but id venture to say that anyone who has been following the tropics on a year in and year out basis know that early season action rarely is attached to conditions further down the season line. There are always anomalous happenstance (we'll see on this mid to laye July signal) for sure but i still look to 8/15 to 8/20 for the ramp up of activity.

It absolutely is if said systems form in the deep tropics lol.

"Absolutely is" are strong words. I imagine you are looking for an above average MDR season saying this? If that were the case early recurves could be the majority and beneficial to most.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1675905099636576257




For those who can't see tweets, here is Levi Cowans message.

@TropicalTidbits
The large-scale Atlantic pattern doesn't look particularly supportive of tropical storm formation for the next 10 days.

The ECMWF ensemble predicts a stronger than normal subtropical ridge, strengthening the trade winds and reducing background cyclonic vorticity (spin) across most of the basin. This is unsurprising in an El Niño year.

The African monsoon circulation appears to be enhanced (westerly anomalies southwest of Africa), which elevates background vorticity in the eastern Atlantic, but it remains a bit early in the year for tropical formation out there, despite the two MDR storms we had in June.

We can't guarantee zero storms during the first half of July, but the odds may favor it until something changes.

[WiscoWx02]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1675905099636576257

For those who can't see tweets, here is Levi Cowans message.

@TropicalTidbits
The large-scale Atlantic pattern doesn't look particularly supportive of tropical storm formation for the next 10 days.

The ECMWF ensemble predicts a stronger than normal subtropical ridge, strengthening the trade winds and reducing background cyclonic vorticity (spin) across most of the basin. This is unsurprising in an El Niño year.

The African monsoon circulation appears to be enhanced (westerly anomalies southwest of Africa), which elevates background vorticity in the eastern Atlantic, but it remains a bit early in the year for tropical formation out there, despite the two MDR storms we had in June.

We can't guarantee zero storms during the first half of July, but the odds may favor it until something changes.

https://i.imgur.com/9qPwftZ.png

I agree with Levi, I don't expect anything to form in the first half or even at all in July. Enhanced trades, SAL and shear associated with the east based El Nino is more likely to keep a firm lid on anything happening at least until mid August in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1675964497939275778




Alan's message below for those who dont see tweets.

@AlanSevere
not to anyone surprise ever. the EPS has backed off to a more normal looking mid-July with 1.2X ACE. Rising motion no longer over Africa will do that to a run. We will see if this is a new trend or a 1 Run thing with tomorrows weeklies.

[jconsor]

Be careful using the EPS weeklies beyond 2-3 weeks to gauge favorability of the overall pattern for Atlantic tropical activity.. They have been biased toward too much -VP over the E. Pacific and +VP over Indian Ocean, apparently playing catchup to the lingering impacts of the very warm SST in the tropical W. Pacific and the -PDO as well as the influence of the strong WAM and very warm tropical Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1675988227432275974

[AnnularCane]

I have no idea what a hovmoller is but I think I like the word.

[Category5Kaiju]

Think whatever you might think for July, but we just had one of the busiest Junes on record, with 3 NSs and 2 MDR systems that lasted for more than 2 days.

If you had to ask me, I do think that is a sign of things to come. There’s a reason why so many past hurricane seasons have never really seen something that anomalous happen before.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1676269292034170890

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1676269292034170890

Being that record low SAL in early June was given as per the link below as one of the major reasons (in addition to global warming) for the MDR to be at record warmth for early June, logic would suggest that this increased SAL could very well help to cool MDR anomalies down some. Let's see whether this happens.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... peratures/

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1676269292034170890

Being that record low SAL in early June was given as per the link below as one of the major reasons (in addition to global warming) for the MDR to be at record warmth for early June, logic would suggest that this increased SAL could very well help to cool MDR anomalies down some. Let's see whether this happens.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... peratures/

What's for sure though is that unless we see some record-breaking, anomalously-strong SAL outbreaks, this could very well be a "too little, too late" situation. July is normally a SAL outbreak month that sees mitigation of MDR sst anomalies to an extent (even years like 2005, 2010, and 2017 saw this kind of event happen), so by that logic, 2023 has a chance of still being at impressive warmth levels as we enter August.

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1676269292034170890

Being that record low SAL in early June was given as per the link below as one of the major reasons (in addition to global warming) for the MDR to be at record warmth for early June, logic would suggest that this increased SAL could very well help to cool MDR anomalies down some. Let's see whether this happens.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... peratures/

What's for sure though is that unless we see some record-breaking, anomalously-strong SAL outbreaks, this could very well be a "too little, too late" situation. July is normally a SAL outbreak month that sees mitigation of MDR sst anomalies to an extent (even years like 2005, 2010, and 2017 saw this kind of event happen), so by that logic, 2023 has a chance of still being at impressive warmth levels as we enter August.

Yeah, don't forget that SSTAs, by virtue of being anomalies, takes into account the climatological cooling due to SAL. It would take an anomalously strong SAL season and/or trades to really hurt SSTAs.

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1676269292034170890

Being that record low SAL in early June was given as per the link below as one of the major reasons (in addition to global warming) for the MDR to be at record warmth for early June, logic would suggest that this increased SAL could very well help to cool MDR anomalies down some. Let's see whether this happens.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... peratures/

What's for sure though is that unless we see some record-breaking, anomalously-strong SAL outbreaks, this could very well be a "too little, too late" situation. July is normally a SAL outbreak month that sees mitigation of MDR sst anomalies to an extent (even years like 2005, 2010, and 2017 saw this kind of event happen), so by that logic, 2023 has a chance of still being at impressive warmth levels as we enter August.

I agree that there's a good chance that the MDR SSTa will still be quite warm as of early August regardless of SAL strength as that's only 4 weeks away and global warming, which is at record levels, isn't going away (see below). What I'm wondering about is if there will be some additional reduction (perhaps a few tenths) in the anomaly between now and then. OISST and CRW have it today at a still very notable +1.2 but even these are well off the ~+1.56 anomaly of June 11th.

Regarding the global warming factor, after a record warm June worldwide, July 3rd just set a new record high of +17.01 C per this link (holy smoke!):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

So, the MDR just like other areas has record global warmth to support it. Thus, I'm not looking for the MDR's warm anomaly to disappear anytime soon as I'm just talking about anomaly reduction potential.

[Category5Kaiju]

A bit of precautionary advice I would like to emphasize: especially now with the Atlantic inactive for the near future, there seems to be a lot of misinformation and deceiving information circulating wx social media (especially Twitter) about the hurricane season. There are some great, reliable, discussion-worthy people/accounts (Danny Morris, Andy Hazelton, Eric Webb, Levi, etc.), but there also seem to be people/accounts that strongly suggest or outwardly state something along the lines of "this El Nino will 100% shut down the entire Atlantic season" or "the SAL will reduce the sst anomalies to record breaking low temperatures" without any reliable evidence to back such claims up.

My point here is, just be mindful if you ever decide to go on Twitter or other social media trying to learn more about what's going on with hurricane season. Also, just remember Tyler Stanfield's flowchart if you're ever bored.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1293254898168012803

[Hurricane2022]

A bit of precautionary advice I would like to emphasize: especially now with the Atlantic inactive for the near future, there seems to be a lot of misinformation and deceiving information circulating wx social media (especially Twitter) about the hurricane season. There are some great, reliable, discussion-worthy people/accounts (Danny Morris, Andy Hazelton, Eric Webb, Levi, etc.), but there also seem to be people/accounts that strongly suggest or outwardly state something along the lines of "this El Nino will 100% shut down the entire Atlantic season" or "the SAL will reduce the sst anomalies to record breaking low temperatures" without any reliable evidence to back such claims up.

My point here is, just be mindful if you ever decide to go on Twitter or other social media trying to learn more about what's going on with hurricane season. Also, just remember Tyler Stanfield's flowchart if you're ever bored.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1293254898168012803

This flowchart is just perfect

[tolakram]

If you get your weather from social media you will be constantly surprised by reality.

[NotSparta]

A bit of precautionary advice I would like to emphasize: especially now with the Atlantic inactive for the near future, there seems to be a lot of misinformation and deceiving information circulating wx social media (especially Twitter) about the hurricane season. There are some great, reliable, discussion-worthy people/accounts (Danny Morris, Andy Hazelton, Eric Webb, Levi, etc.), but there also seem to be people/accounts that strongly suggest or outwardly state something along the lines of "this El Nino will 100% shut down the entire Atlantic season" or "the SAL will reduce the sst anomalies to record breaking low temperatures" without any reliable evidence to back such claims up.

My point here is, just be mindful if you ever decide to go on Twitter or other social media trying to learn more about what's going on with hurricane season. Also, just remember Tyler Stanfield's flowchart if you're ever bored.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1293254898168012803

Season already cancelled because El Nino is here