Category5Kaiju wrote:It’s honestly fascinating that there’s so much struggle going on to find a good analog year. Or, any years that bear any resemblance to what we are seeing now are years that occurred before many of us might have been born in
That's what makes this year one of the most difficult from a seasonal forecast perspective—we don't have reliable data to use as analogs. Using proxy data and only analyzing SSTAs for their respective baseline periods, 1878 and 1899 are the closest analogs I could find:


It's also worth pointing out there was a spike in global temperatures in 1878 (using Hadley dataset HadCRUT):
Code: Select all
1877 -0.229792
1877.08 -0.209417
1877.17 -0.181
1877.25 -0.150542
1877.33 -0.124833
1877.42 -0.106042
1877.5 -0.0935
1877.58 -0.0898333
1877.67 -0.0804583
1877.75 -0.0615833
1877.83 -0.0505
1877.92 -0.0344167
1878 -0.0194167
1878.08 -0.0138333
1878.17 -0.0220833
1878.25 -0.0143333
1878.33 -0.009875
1878.42 0.000208333
1878.5 -0.00720833
1878.58 -0.0173333
1878.67 -0.0304167
1878.75 -0.0405417
1878.83 -0.0482083
1878.92 -0.0684583
1879 -0.097
1879.08 -0.107042
1879.17 -0.131042
1879.25 -0.149667
1879.33 -0.169208
1879.42 -0.175958
1879.5 -0.189542
1879.58 -0.197792
1879.67 -0.201667
1879.75 -0.212167
1879.83 -0.223167
1879.92 -0.231833
