2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#741 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:13 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:It’s honestly fascinating that there’s so much struggle going on to find a good analog year. Or, any years that bear any resemblance to what we are seeing now are years that occurred before many of us might have been born in :)


That's what makes this year one of the most difficult from a seasonal forecast perspective—we don't have reliable data to use as analogs. Using proxy data and only analyzing SSTAs for their respective baseline periods, 1878 and 1899 are the closest analogs I could find:
Image
Image

It's also worth pointing out there was a spike in global temperatures in 1878 (using Hadley dataset HadCRUT):

Code: Select all

1877   -0.229792
1877.08   -0.209417
1877.17   -0.181
1877.25   -0.150542
1877.33   -0.124833
1877.42   -0.106042
1877.5   -0.0935
1877.58   -0.0898333
1877.67   -0.0804583
1877.75   -0.0615833
1877.83   -0.0505
1877.92   -0.0344167
1878   -0.0194167
1878.08   -0.0138333
1878.17   -0.0220833
1878.25   -0.0143333
1878.33   -0.009875
1878.42   0.000208333
1878.5   -0.00720833
1878.58   -0.0173333
1878.67   -0.0304167
1878.75   -0.0405417
1878.83   -0.0482083
1878.92   -0.0684583
1879   -0.097
1879.08   -0.107042
1879.17   -0.131042
1879.25   -0.149667
1879.33   -0.169208
1879.42   -0.175958
1879.5   -0.189542
1879.58   -0.197792
1879.67   -0.201667
1879.75   -0.212167
1879.83   -0.223167
1879.92   -0.231833


Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#742 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:19 pm

USTropics wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:It’s honestly fascinating that there’s so much struggle going on to find a good analog year. Or, any years that bear any resemblance to what we are seeing now are years that occurred before many of us might have been born in :)


That's what makes this year one of the most difficult from a seasonal forecast perspective—we don't have reliable data to use as analogs. Using proxy data and only analyzing SSTAs for their respective baseline periods, 1878 and 1899 are the closest analogs I could find:
https://i.imgur.com/iBlbFwn.png
https://i.imgur.com/7TTCmib.png

It's also worth pointing out there was a spike in global temperatures in 1878 (using Hadley dataset HadCRUT):

Code: Select all

1877   -0.229792
1877.08   -0.209417
1877.17   -0.181
1877.25   -0.150542
1877.33   -0.124833
1877.42   -0.106042
1877.5   -0.0935
1877.58   -0.0898333
1877.67   -0.0804583
1877.75   -0.0615833
1877.83   -0.0505
1877.92   -0.0344167
1878   -0.0194167
1878.08   -0.0138333
1878.17   -0.0220833
1878.25   -0.0143333
1878.33   -0.009875
1878.42   0.000208333
1878.5   -0.00720833
1878.58   -0.0173333
1878.67   -0.0304167
1878.75   -0.0405417
1878.83   -0.0482083
1878.92   -0.0684583
1879   -0.097
1879.08   -0.107042
1879.17   -0.131042
1879.25   -0.149667
1879.33   -0.169208
1879.42   -0.175958
1879.5   -0.189542
1879.58   -0.197792
1879.67   -0.201667
1879.75   -0.212167
1879.83   -0.223167
1879.92   -0.231833


https://i.imgur.com/I09A2xt.png


1877-1878 was a Super El Nino that spiked global temps after. However, the globe overall was much colder back in that century. Global SST warming now is far greater despite following triple La Nina.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#743 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:30 pm

Ntxw wrote:
USTropics wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:It’s honestly fascinating that there’s so much struggle going on to find a good analog year. Or, any years that bear any resemblance to what we are seeing now are years that occurred before many of us might have been born in :)


That's what makes this year one of the most difficult from a seasonal forecast perspective—we don't have reliable data to use as analogs. Using proxy data and only analyzing SSTAs for their respective baseline periods, 1878 and 1899 are the closest analogs I could find:
https://i.imgur.com/iBlbFwn.png
https://i.imgur.com/7TTCmib.png

It's also worth pointing out there was a spike in global temperatures in 1878 (using Hadley dataset HadCRUT):

Code: Select all

1877   -0.229792
1877.08   -0.209417
1877.17   -0.181
1877.25   -0.150542
1877.33   -0.124833
1877.42   -0.106042
1877.5   -0.0935
1877.58   -0.0898333
1877.67   -0.0804583
1877.75   -0.0615833
1877.83   -0.0505
1877.92   -0.0344167
1878   -0.0194167
1878.08   -0.0138333
1878.17   -0.0220833
1878.25   -0.0143333
1878.33   -0.009875
1878.42   0.000208333
1878.5   -0.00720833
1878.58   -0.0173333
1878.67   -0.0304167
1878.75   -0.0405417
1878.83   -0.0482083
1878.92   -0.0684583
1879   -0.097
1879.08   -0.107042
1879.17   -0.131042
1879.25   -0.149667
1879.33   -0.169208
1879.42   -0.175958
1879.5   -0.189542
1879.58   -0.197792
1879.67   -0.201667
1879.75   -0.212167
1879.83   -0.223167
1879.92   -0.231833


https://i.imgur.com/I09A2xt.png


1877-1878 was a Super El Nino that spiked global temps after. However, the globe overall was much colder back in that century. Global SST warming now is far greater despite following triple La Nina.


Absolutely, not comparing the internal mechanisms to the current global warming on a century scale (i.e., gradual warming/lag response to anthropogenic forcings), but rather we are experiencing a current spike that has likely contributed to a warmer Atlantic ocean (evaluating baseline anomalies of the past 30 years). A similar experience in 1878 and 1899 (albeit under different mechanisms like you stated) also saw a spike in global temperatures (again, evaluating only that period's baseline).
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#744 Postby zzzh » Thu Jul 06, 2023 6:14 pm

:uarrow: 1878 was a super Nino transitioned to neutral year, it doesn't really line up with a growing Nino we have now. 1899 looks like a solid analog.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#745 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 06, 2023 6:58 pm

zzzh wrote::uarrow: 1878 was a super Nino transitioned to neutral year, it doesn't really line up with a growing Nino we have now. 1899 looks like a solid analog.


Which is kind of the point, there is no good analog season if you're looking at all parameters (and why I mentioned looking solely based on SSTA configuration from June). If you're looking for an east based El Nino still persisting, a warm Atlantic (particularly the Canary current), and cooler anomalies off the western coast of NA, those are the closest years I could find. Both were transitioning years as we're experiencing now (in fact JJA ONI values were higher in 1878 than 1899). 1878 would have had lingering El Nino effects, and with the current ENSO state not being fully coupled, a similar scenario could play out (when we're looking exclusively at a warm Atlantic and still warm ENSO region displaced to the east).
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#746 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:52 pm

Funny enough, three of the Atlantic hurricanes that generated the highest recorded ACE, so upwards of 55 ACE (Ivan, Carrie, and 1899 hurricane), happened during El Nino years
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#747 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 07, 2023 9:24 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#748 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 07, 2023 10:26 am

New NMME...

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#749 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 07, 2023 10:56 am

Cansips down the island chain..

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#750 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 07, 2023 11:01 am

Active sw atlantic and islands
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#751 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:42 pm

SFLcane wrote:New NMME...

https://i.postimg.cc/y8Whvd90/td.png


However, the new NMME for JAS has actually backed off on precip vs the prior run somewhat for the NE Caribbean. Also, this new run has decreased precip rather significantly vs the prior run from Cuba through the Bahamas and the SE US/E GOM. The trend is our friend?? I don't look at this new run as bad news, especially for the SE US and nearby.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70800&fh=3
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#752 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:00 pm

SFLcane wrote:Cansips down the island chain..

https://i.postimg.cc/VLWNhQng/cansips.png


Similar to the latest NMME trend and actually even more dramatically, the latest CANSIPS for JAS is drier vs the prior run from Cuba through the Bahamas, the SE US, and the E GOM:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70100&fh=1

I think that CANSIPS is part of NMME more or less.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#753 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:43 pm

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:New NMME...

https://i.postimg.cc/y8Whvd90/td.png


However, the new NMME for JAS has actually backed off on precip vs the prior run somewhat for the NE Caribbean. Also, this new run has decreased precip rather significantly vs the prior run from Cuba through the Bahamas and the SE US/E GOM. The trend is our friend?? I don't look at this new run as bad news, especially for the SE US and nearby.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70800&fh=3


Its about the same honestly i think the hospot this season will be NE caribbean into the sw atlantic potentially stretching into Florida. Can't really forecst tc tracks using precipation anomalies and most missed the 2 hurricanes that hit fl in 2022. Most might recurve but 1-2 could make it far west. Just need 1
Last edited by SFLcane on Fri Jul 07, 2023 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#754 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:46 pm

tweets remove
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: tweets removed
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#755 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 07, 2023 2:39 pm

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Moi0h7nVHK4[/youtube]
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#756 Postby Landy » Fri Jul 07, 2023 2:52 pm

Last edited by Landy on Fri Jul 07, 2023 3:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#757 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Jul 07, 2023 2:53 pm

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#758 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:48 pm

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1677402388909416448



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Best bet for any tropical activity in the Atlantic this month (at least for a few weeks) might be this high-latitude stuff. Remains to be seen if the one next week is warm core, though.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#759 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:36 pm

Almost the entire basin of the Atlantic is above average, what is going on?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#760 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:58 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Almost the entire basin of the Atlantic is above average, what is going on?

Very likely due to Global Warming, since we are in a El Nino!
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