2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

Is the wind shear also the culprit behind the drop in SST’s in the MDR? Sorry I’m still trying to learn a lot of this stuff lol

What drop in MDR SSTs?

In the past couple weeks the SST’s have cooled off a bit out there per Tropical Tidbits. Was wondering what the culprit was behind that.

My educated guess regarding the ~25% drop in the intensity of warm MDR anomalies is increased SAL from previously record low SAL for June in combo with increased tropical activity.

[wxman57]

Big ECMWF upgrade today. Ensemble resolution for members 1-51 now 9km vs. 18km. Added another 50 ensemble members for a total of 101 now.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/model-upgrade-increases-skill-and-unifies-medium-range-resolutions

[Tailgater33]

Big ECMWF upgrade today. Ensemble resolution for members 1-51 now 9km vs. 18km. Added another 50 ensemble members for a total of 101 now.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/model-upgrade-increases-skill-and-unifies-medium-range-resolutions

Wow that is big, Lots of scenarios. It’ll probably be kicking out lots of model storms also until they work out the kinks.

[Steve]

GFS with the back to back minor Gulf hits.

1) Small closing low type feature valid a week from today at 1pm in SELA. Probably will be b.s.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=180

2) 294 hours has another, similar move up from the Yucatan toward the TX/LA border. Probably will also be b.s.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 806&fh=294

However, the Japanese MJO model forecast is for a move into Phase 2 in several days for several days. If it's right, we might have to look at the Gulf toward the end of next week anyway regardless of what the GFS shows.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

[tolakram]

Regardless of strength that is a lot of rainfall coming in from the gulf.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/AndrewSiffert/status/1676207860202479619



Weak but interesting signals coming from EPS.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSiffert/status/1676207860202479619?t=IdbRHmIpmdzRT5ZCPsp52Q&s=19
Weak but interesting signals coming from EPS.

I honestly wouldn't take a model that goes out nearly 45 days into the future at face-value, especially in early July. I can't remember a time in the recent past at least when I saw a model predict a storm that far out in advance.

[aspen]

GFS is starting to wake up. It’s showing what could be some subtropical development in the middle of the Atlantic around 5-6 days out, and the 06z run in the super long-range showed a MDR system. Probably picking up on the favorable CCKW that’ll be passing through in late July.

[SFLcane]

GFS is starting to wake up. It’s showing what could be some subtropical development in the middle of the Atlantic around 5-6 days out, and the 06z run in the super long-range showed a MDR system. Probably picking up on the favorable CCKW that’ll be passing through in late July.

Meh I call bluff on the Mdr system Gefs/eps shows nothing. Something near the Azores potentially sure

[aspen]

GFS is starting to wake up. It’s showing what could be some subtropical development in the middle of the Atlantic around 5-6 days out, and the 06z run in the super long-range showed a MDR system. Probably picking up on the favorable CCKW that’ll be passing through in late July.

Meh I call bluff on the Mdr system Gefs/eps shows nothing. Something near the Azores potentially sure

I’m not saying that 300+ hr MDR system is going to happen, I’m just pointing out that the GFS seems to be sniffing out a potentially favorable period from the late July Kelvin Wave. This particular storm will most certainly be gone in the 12z run.

[Spacecoast]

Big ECMWF upgrade today. Ensemble resolution for members 1-51 now 9km vs. 18km. Added another 50 ensemble members for a total of 101 now.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/model-upgrade-increases-skill-and-unifies-medium-range-resolutions

Does anyone know when / if we will see ECMWF ensemble runs with 101 members displayed on TT, or Weathernerds?
Do the current Tropical Tidbit (EPS), / Weathernerds (ECENS) runs still only contain the original 51 members?

[NotSparta]

Big ECMWF upgrade today. Ensemble resolution for members 1-51 now 9km vs. 18km. Added another 50 ensemble members for a total of 101 now.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/model-upgrade-increases-skill-and-unifies-medium-range-resolutions

Does anyone know when / if we will see ECMWF ensemble runs with 101 members displayed on TT, or Weathernerds?
Do the current Tropical Tidbit (EPS), / Weathernerds (ECENS) runs still only contain the original 51 members?

The 15-day EPS is still 51 members, only the long term EPS is 101 members

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS is back with the idea of a system in the subtropics mid-month, followed by an MDR system late this month. It also shows the EPAC systems staying broad and not really growing very strong

[Nimbus]

Big ECMWF upgrade today. Ensemble resolution for members 1-51 now 9km vs. 18km. Added another 50 ensemble members for a total of 101 now.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/model-upgrade-increases-skill-and-unifies-medium-range-resolutions

Interesting, reminds me of Chaos theory and the "butterfly effect".
I remember during hurricane Ian when the trough was working its way down to the Gulf coast some of the models flipped track about the same time the frontal boundary sagged south of NOLA. High cirrus clouds appeared like a ghost out over the gulf.

Sounds like the old high resolution model was so successful the medium resolution is now considered less accurate and redundant so they are merging.

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS has the potential system in the subtropics forming in 4-5 days and gets it down to 994mb. Wonder if we'll see a lemon soon in the next few TWO's.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS back at it again with a MDR hurricane in the long range

Will likely be gone next run

[WeatherBoy2000]

GFS back at it again with a MDR hurricane in the long range

Will likely be gone next run

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1678721070428200960




Although pretty much dropped as of the 06z, the gfs might be picking up on the mdr becoming more favorable again after the 20th. Still early and bares watching.

[Mouton]

Looking at the GFS two plus weeks out, there appears to be a front dangling off the mid gulf coast. There may be some in close development just off the La coast in that area at that time. I'd keep an eye on that.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro develops wave sw of CV islands 10 days from today.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS (this weekend) and the 12z Canadian (mid next week) showing something north of the Caribbean, somewhat weak, nothing too alarming, but something to look at.