CPAC: CALVIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2023071112, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1052W, 30, 1007, DB

[wxman57]

With a quite cool PDO causing cooler than normal water east of Hawaii, it will be quite difficult for any tropical storm or hurricane coming from the east to survive to reach Hawaii. Interesting that GFS has it at peak intensity over the coolest water the 14th-16th. I think the EC and CMC are more realistic in bringing some remnant moisture into the islands, but that's about it. I plotted the GFS' track on a SST map:

[Yellow Evan]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1128196681716994058/20230711.png


Personally think this is adequate but NHC might not bite until 15z.

ASCAT C an hour later didn't make it look that well organized.

https://i.imgur.com/8E71EJ2.jpg

Center reformation perhaps?

[NDG]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1128196681716994058/20230711.png


Personally think this is adequate but NHC might not bite until 15z.

ASCAT C an hour later didn't make it look that well organized.

https://i.imgur.com/8E71EJ2.jpg

Center reformation perhaps?

Perhaps, lets see what the new ASCAT shows in a few hours.
If it reforms further north that would also mean a track closer to the cooler waters.

[NDG]

EP, 94, 2023071112, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1052W, 30, 1007, DB

X Latest NHC best track position on a satellite. For them to keep saying that it continues to get better organized must be just a copy & paste from yesterday.

[cycloneye]

SDD dvorak position is more NW and closer to the deep convection.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 11/1200Z

C. 12.5N

D. 106.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...>2/0 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE WITH DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

[NDG]

SDD dvorak position is more NW and closer to the deep convection.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 11/1200Z

C. 12.5N

D. 106.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...>2/0 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE WITH DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

Yes perhaps a little further NW of the NHC's position but I still see a broad elongated circulation SE-NW like ASCAT showed last night.
BTW, 12z SHIPS analyzed 17 knots NE shear over it, not dropping much over the next 24 hrs.

[cycloneye]

New burst of convection flaring closer to the BT position.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Same language as the 5 AM PDT one.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. The system
does not yet have a well-defined center, but is producing winds
near tropical storm force on its west side. Any additional
organization of the low-level center will lead to a tropical storm
developing later today or tonight. The system is expected to move
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the next several
days. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

This might be enough, though still somewhat broad trough like to the south of the deep convection.

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2023071118, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1071W, 30, 1007, LO,

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 11/1800Z

C. 12.9N

D. 108.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF A 1.5. MET
IS A 1.0 DUE TO A DEVELOPING TREND. PT AGREES WITH MET. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

[Yellow Evan]

3E on RAMMB.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023
300 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and coverage
near the center of the system during the past several hours.
Recent ASCAT scatterometer passes indicate that the low has
developed a well-defined center and maximum winds of around 30 kt
on its west side. The estimated center position is a bit uncertain
since there are considerable convective clouds obscuring it.
The low now meets the criteria of a tropical depression, and the
initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on the ASCAT data
and a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The depression is moving quickly to the west-northwest and the
initial motion is estimated to be 290/18 kt. The steering pattern
for the depression seems fairly straightforward. A strong mid-level
ridge to the north of the system is expected to remain in place
during the next several days. Therefore, the west-northwestward
motion will continue throughout the forecast period. The models are
in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near
the various consensus aids.

Tropical Depression Three-E is currently over warm SSTs and will
remain over warm ocean temperatures through the next several days.
Dynamical guidance indicates that the depression is currently
dealing with some northeasterly shear, and that shear will continue
during the next day or so. Thereafter, vertical wind shear is
expected to decrease for several days. This lower wind shear and
warm SSTs will foster a conducive environment for strengthening
through the end of the week. The intensity forecast reflects gradual
strengthening in the short-term, with the system strengthening into
a hurricane in about 3 days. Towards the end of the forecast period,
the tropical cyclone will be moving over cooling SSTs, which should
end the strengthening phase and cause gradual weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 12.5N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 12.8N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 12.9N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 13.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 13.2N 118.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 13.7N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 14.3N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 15.7N 130.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Looks like after being sloppy this morning, it has begún to organize faster this afternoon.

[NDG]

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/oEdInAH.jpg

Still needs more time. But it's interesting they said it was producing TS force winds and any more organization would result them going straight to TS. But they went with a depression.