2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

0z EPS & GEFS through 10 days.

https://i.imgur.com/3yL6Dxw.png
https://i.imgur.com/fhg40be.png

An interesting benchmark to watch and see whether the number of model members maintain, decrease or increase the potential of development. I myself consider the EPS run a tad less worrisome than it might appear for one particular reason. Discounting the two members over South/Central America, that leaves 16 model members with reported 240 hr surface pressures. If one were to eliminate all members depicting 1010 mb pressures or higher, that would then leave only 8 members remaining. Using that metric, it will be interesting to compare subsequent forecasts. Thats not to say that a westward advancing tropical wave with 1012-1014 mb surface pressures can't suddenly find a "sweet spot" nearing the Greater Antilles or Bahamas but future model runs will then bear this threat out with any consistent run-to-run uptick.

[tiger_deF]

I don't think the OP GFS has a great handle on the potential system evolution. The 12z run keeps trying to deepen the current tropical wave in the open Atlantic, which our emerging waves runs into resulting in all kind of convective weirdness.

[Blown Away]

[/url]
12z GFS deepening a system in SW Atlantic bringing a strong Cat 2/3 into Key West then EGOM… Those SST’s

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Zn54hrzj/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-fh228-306.gif [/url]
12z GFS deepening a system in SW Atlantic…

If that gets into the GOM it'll be a MH no doubt. Models showing virtually no shear at that time frame.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS… Crosses Key West then into EGOM… Wow perfect track to absorb those insane SST’s in Keys and EGOM, probably a hair E of Loop current… Finishes moving towards FL Panhandle… Only 1 run and very long range…

[Category5Kaiju]

Just watched that last GFS run...

[BobHarlem]

The water temps around Andros island and Key West are crazy hot, if that GFS path is correct, I think it would be underestimating intensity quite a bit. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro picks up on this, but really the GFS doesn't do anything with it until the fantasy range, beyond the EURO timeframe, so those aren't a great match right now. However CMC takes the system into the Caribbean, and the 0z Euro was much weaker, although some of the ensembles were coming around. Something to keep a close watch on next week either way, it seems. At least this is out in fantasy GFS range now.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS finds some room to curve earlier than Operational...

[ElectricStorm]

Probably just the typical 300+ hour GFS shenanigans at this point, and will likely be gone by the next run.

This wave could have a decent chance at some sort of development though so it needs to be watched but I'm not buying this run for now.

[cainjamin]

While the 12z GFS is likely overdone on intensity, more and more models are coming on board to at least some slight development of this wave. Wouldn't be shocked to get a short-lived depression or storm out of it.

[JetFuel_SE]

Probably just the typical 300+ hour GFS shenanigans at this point, and will likely be gone by the next run.

This wave could have a decent chance at some sort of development though so it needs to be watched but I'm not buying this run for now.

It's been showing some development of this wave for quite a while now, and just as other models also start picking up on it, the GFS shows a strong system.

[USTropics]

Just looking at the medium range (~5 days), the GFS solution is definitely possible, albeit there are a lot of moving parts. For one, Don's location and strength in 3-5 days plays a pivotal role in breaking down the eastern periphery of the BH, which significantly slows down the westward progression of the current wave in the eastern ATL. Of this, the majority of the model guidance is in agreement with:


Also notice in the 06z surface analysis a low pressure was initialized over NW Africa (red L). The GFS has a piece of this energy being ejected along the monsoon trough axis (red dash) and interacting with a future wave axis. This then coalesces with the EATL wave and remains weak until reaching the NW Caribbean. Also the convective complex over the CATL is not associated with the far eastern Atlantic wave axis (this is currently mostly devoid of
deep convection and highlighted in pink):


This is the full evolution of the GFS through 5 days:


We can see from the 06z ECMWF ensembles and 12z GFS ensembles there remains a wide spread on where this could potentially coalesce at:

[cycloneye]

I am surprised our NWS posted this message on twitter with a good deal of time ahead.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1680645411906949120

@NWSSanJuan
[ Jul 16 ] Although with much uncertainty, global models suggest the development of a tropical cyclone that could reach the northeastern Caribbean early next week. Stay tuned for forecast updates! #PRwx #USVIwx

[cycloneye]

12z Euro operational has it but moves west without developing. Look near Guadeloupe.

[Teban54]

Just a day ago, the Twitter mets were saying forecast for an active season may bust because the Atlantic can't take advantage of a CCKW in July.

Funny how things can change in just 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

12z ECENS… A bit quieter than 00z…

[Spacecoast]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3wms4Q40/68815451.gif [/url]post a picture

12z ECENS… Worth ATM

Here's 12z ECENS probability -Day 10
TD Probability ~15%

TS Probability ~10%

Hurricane Probability is back to 0%....

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS

[ChrisH-UK]

The hi res also shows it approaching the Caribbean at 180 hours out. The Atlantic is waking up after it's nap.

Source - https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/vor ... vels-96132

[wxman57]

12Z GFS = BS. Don't believe it for a second. Once again, it's all alone in forecasting a hurricane. Just a wave moving across the NE Caribbean next Tue/Wed, causing a bit of rain is most likely. Euro barely has any 850mb vorticity at all. Canadian has a much stronger ridge to the north, pushing the wave to Central America in about 12 days.