2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[chaser1]

The wave that will emerge Africa next week will be the strongest so far in 2023 and will be a test of how conditions are in MDR with the battle between El NIño and warm sst's /+AMO..

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1680255956159004672

@AndyHazelton
·
9m
It's probably just somewhat climatology, but dry air early season, El Niño late season doesn't seem like a ticket for a high end Atlantic year, even with very warm SST. Unless there's a ton of activity in a very short window near peak season.

Since when was there an Atlantic season in recent times that didn't struggle with dry air and that stuff in late July/early August?

Right?!? Personally I’m surprised that even experts are (not openly canceling the season) but alluding to that this season is going to be dead non the less when even in 2015 we had 2 major hurricanes. It doesn’t make any sense to me honestly. Not to mention, yeah, since when hasn’t dry air been an issue this time of year in the Atlantic? If the wave next week doesn’t develop, oh well, really doesn’t mean anything in my opinion because that is simply just climatology. Think the assumption that El Nino = no hurricane season is just not the play to go by when forecasting an upcoming season like this one.

Origin of a Muddled Message- Poor communication by the sender or poor interpretation by the receiver?

Every single year someone throws out or accuses others of forecasting "Season Cancel". It is such an overly simplistic & unintelligent expression, that it's admittedly kind of fun/funny to refer to. Does Season cancel mean only two named storms for an entire season, while one of them may have been a landfalling Cat 4? Perhaps the expression means a season of 6 named storms that never came within 500 miles of land. Or maybe the expression is literal and must mean ZERO named storms for a given season? The answer is probably no less debatable then the old expression "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?", the same might apply to each person's perception of what is perceived as a "dead hurricane season". To most laypersons, a "quiet season" either refers to 1) the degree of impact that hurricane season had on them, or 2) certainly the lack of awareness regarding tropical cyclones that actually did develop and/or simply tracked elsewhere.

Andy H's statement above "....but dry air early season, El Niño late season doesn't seem like a ticket for a high end Atlantic year..." , seems to address his perception & doubt whether the present season will ultimately be "high-end" (overactive and/or strong). How pray tell exactly does one construe: "Andy thinks this season is going to be dead because he's doubtful that the season will be high-end" HUH?????? And as for 2015, I'm positive that I haven't heard ANYBODY predict the 2023 season won't produce any major hurricanes either.

As for experts cancelling the season, take a moment and catch the S2K Tropics thread Expert Forecasts for 2023 Hurricane Season. Seems to me that the vast majority of agencies or private services are predicting "active" or above normal. The only recent expert as quoted by LarryWx that seemed to take a different view was Larry Cosgrove. His perspective makes far more sense to me. That doesn't mean I'm calling this season dead, dying, on Intensive Care, Over, or Irrelevant . Just means that I think that most named storms will be a crop of weak-sisters destined to develop east of 50W and twirl harmlessly northward. That doesn't preclude some haymaker can't threaten Miami, Bermuda, Cancun, or Ponce. It just means one considers the strength, quantity, and origin of development to result in the basin wide overall threat to be muted - but muted ain't dead.

[WeatherBoy2000]

One interesting thing about the two notably active el nino seasons of the satellite era (2004/1969) is that they started their peaks a bit sooner than normal. August 20th is the start of the peak of the hurricane season, and it's after that date where the first major hurricane typically occurs. 1969 had 3 major hurricanes with two of them becoming majors prior to August 20th. 2004 kicked off quickly on August 1st and had two majors by August 20th as well. Ever since 2010, all major hurricanes have occurred on or after this date, even in hyperactive seasons like 2010, 2017, and 2020. The Atlantic for the past decade has been relying on heavy peak to late season activity to be active. That might not be something that can happen this year as an el nino's negative influence increases by late September into October. If the very active season forecasts are going to verify, there's a good argument to be made that the Atlantic will have to be more frontloaded than normal.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1680285337107542019




There are some indications that the Atlantic may become more favorable by the end of July. Is it going to be like last year when models kept pushing back and back, or is it legit? From what I've already stated earlier, early August may be more critical for high end activity than in the past several years.

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1680408231363878914



SAL has been below average the entire time

[dexterlabio]

The wave that will emerge Africa next week will be the strongest so far in 2023 and will be a test of how conditions are in MDR with the battle between El NIño and warm sst's /+AMO..

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1680255956159004672

@AndyHazelton
·
9m
It's probably just somewhat climatology, but dry air early season, El Niño late season doesn't seem like a ticket for a high end Atlantic year, even with very warm SST. Unless there's a ton of activity in a very short window near peak season.

Since when was there an Atlantic season in recent times that didn't struggle with dry air and that stuff in late July/early August?

Only 2005, I guess

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1680408231363878914
SAL has been below average the entire time

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1680338859005968388

The Atlantic's a funny place. Each year, we ([me] included) get twisted in knots in June and July, but the early stuff is largely a distraction. We get impatient. Once we've been thoroughly fooled, the switch flips in late August and we forget the early season ever existed.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The wave that will emerge Africa next week will be the strongest so far in 2023 and will be a test of how conditions are in MDR with the battle between El NIño and warm sst's /+AMO..

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1680255956159004672

@AndyHazelton
·
9m
It's probably just somewhat climatology, but dry air early season, El Niño late season doesn't seem like a ticket for a high end Atlantic year, even with very warm SST. Unless there's a ton of activity in a very short window near peak season.

Since when was there an Atlantic season in recent times that didn't struggle with dry air and that stuff in late July/early August?

Only 2005, I guess

That's one of the main reasons why that season has those numbers.

[NDG]

Don't look for anything to go OTS immediately "if" anything is able to develop over the MDR over the next few days with this strong ridging across the Atlantic Ocean that the EPS forecasts. Lesser Antilles need to keep an eye on forecasts.

[gatorcane]

Mentioned in the “Florida weather” thread but Marathon in the Florida Keys is reporting a heat index of 113F right now which is extreme even for Keys standards, light winds and warmer than normal SSTs are to blame: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... 1999999995

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1680615929481244674

[JetFuel_SE]

Since when was there an Atlantic season in recent times that didn't struggle with dry air and that stuff in late July/early August?

Right?!? Personally I’m surprised that even experts are (not openly canceling the season) but alluding to that this season is going to be dead non the less when even in 2015 we had 2 major hurricanes. It doesn’t make any sense to me honestly. Not to mention, yeah, since when hasn’t dry air been an issue this time of year in the Atlantic? If the wave next week doesn’t develop, oh well, really doesn’t mean anything in my opinion because that is simply just climatology. Think the assumption that El Nino = no hurricane season is just not the play to go by when forecasting an upcoming season like this one.

I think I’ll side with the hurricane experts and their predictions of an above normal season over Andy. This year has been an odd year with surprises. I see no reason for that not to continue.

Andy is one of the bigger bears in the meteorology world, so his season cancel stuff doesn't surprise me.

[Monsoonjr99]

Definitely getting to that point in the season where captainbarbossa's timeline becomes relevant

[WiscoWx02]

Since when was there an Atlantic season in recent times that didn't struggle with dry air and that stuff in late July/early August?

Right?!? Personally I’m surprised that even experts are (not openly canceling the season) but alluding to that this season is going to be dead non the less when even in 2015 we had 2 major hurricanes. It doesn’t make any sense to me honestly. Not to mention, yeah, since when hasn’t dry air been an issue this time of year in the Atlantic? If the wave next week doesn’t develop, oh well, really doesn’t mean anything in my opinion because that is simply just climatology. Think the assumption that El Nino = no hurricane season is just not the play to go by when forecasting an upcoming season like this one.

Origin of a Muddled Message- Poor communication by the sender or poor interpretation by the receiver?

Every single year someone throws out or accuses others of forecasting "Season Cancel". It is such an overly simplistic & unintelligent expression, that it's admittedly kind of fun/funny to refer to. Does Season cancel mean only two named storms for an entire season, while one of them may have been a landfalling Cat 4? Perhaps the expression means a season of 6 named storms that never came within 500 miles of land. Or maybe the expression is literal and must mean ZERO named storms for a given season? The answer is probably no less debatable then the old expression "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?", the same might apply to each person's perception of what is perceived as a "dead hurricane season". To most laypersons, a "quiet season" either refers to 1) the degree of impact that hurricane season had on them, or 2) certainly the lack of awareness regarding tropical cyclones that actually did develop and/or simply tracked elsewhere.

Andy H's statement above "....but dry air early season, El Niño late season doesn't seem like a ticket for a high end Atlantic year..." , seems to address his perception & doubt whether the present season will ultimately be "high-end" (overactive and/or strong). How pray tell exactly does one construe: "Andy thinks this season is going to be dead because he's doubtful that the season will be high-end" HUH?????? And as for 2015, I'm positive that I haven't heard ANYBODY predict the 2023 season won't produce any major hurricanes either.

As for experts cancelling the season, take a moment and catch the S2K Tropics thread Expert Forecasts for 2023 Hurricane Season. Seems to me that the vast majority of agencies or private services are predicting "active" or above normal. The only recent expert as quoted by LarryWx that seemed to take a different view was Larry Cosgrove. His perspective makes far more sense to me. That doesn't mean I'm calling this season dead, dying, on Intensive Care, Over, or Irrelevant . Just means that I think that most named storms will be a crop of weak-sisters destined to develop east of 50W and twirl harmlessly northward. That doesn't preclude some haymaker can't threaten Miami, Bermuda, Cancun, or Ponce. It just means one considers the strength, quantity, and origin of development to result in the basin wide overall threat to be muted - but muted ain't dead.

I’ll clarify what I meant, hopefully I’m not too much of a layperson to have lost all credibility…I was stating that Andy has been very conservative about this season from the get go back in April…that I can understand of course because that was before the agency outlooks came around not to mention before the SSTA’s in the Atlantic were at the profile they are at now. I count Andy as an expert, the guy clearly knows his stuff. There are many other folks on twitter who I follow and have for quite some time who have been highly educational to my understanding of the tropics and have always seemed to know what they are talking about. Many of them are sorta in the same boat as Andy…yes, he mentions it not being high end and I agree, but he also has been using language that to me seems he thinks average might even be a stretch.
Second, when I say dead season…well that does of course vary person to person (me personally 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2015 were dead). Many seem to be suggesting a few tropical storms will form, be shredded and that will be that and Andy seems to be leaning on that side based off how I am interpreting his tweets. I was merely pointing that thought process out. I can understand how “season cancel” may trigger folks so I’ll reframe from using the term going forward.
I might add though that his latest tweet highlights something that I think may happen a lot this year and should be a main reason to not discard this season’s potential…upper level shear breaks in certain parts of the basin and any tropical waves that can move in tandem with them if they are anticyclone induced and strengthen.

[captainbarbossa19]

Definitely getting to that point in the season where captainbarbossa's timeline becomes relevant

I almost forgot to post it this year! Thank you for reminding me!

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

[weeniepatrol]

Definitely getting to that point in the season where captainbarbossa's timeline becomes relevant

I almost forgot to post it this year! Thank you for reminding me!

Never gets old

[Category5Kaiju]

I think the key thing I've learned from tracking the tropics since 2017 is that even a week is a lot of time in the tropics. At the beginning of one week, you have absolutely nothing, then by the end several storms are active at once.

2 weeks or a month is even more. I remember last year when people were doubting that the season would be anything significant in the very beginning of September. Long-range models showed absolutely no active storms on September 28, 2022. We all know that day eventually turned out to be a much more sinister day.

[captainbarbossa19]

I think the key thing I've learned from tracking the tropics since 2017 is that even a week is a lot of time in the tropics. At the beginning of one week, you have absolutely nothing, then by the end several storms are active at once.

2 weeks or a month is even more. I remember last year when people were doubting that the season would be anything significant in the very beginning of September. Long-range models showed absolutely no active storms on September 28, 2022. We all know that day eventually turned out to be a much more sinister day.

Very true. Even before then, you could point to numerous seasons that produced monster hurricanes which had extended periods of inactivity (Allen 1980 and Andrew 1992 for instance). Even 2005 had a period of relative inactivity prior to Katrina.

[Ianswfl]

If SSTs keep warming like they are, season extended longer for landfalls? It seems the last 15 years or so the seasons tend to peak later, but also the SST stay warmer into Dec too. I remember around Christmas 2015 the Gulf was still around 80 degrees in a lot of places.

If we keep seeing these warmer temps is it possible everything is pushed out a month, like December is like most of November? So it's possible to get landfalls on the west coast of FL from a slop system like you would see in Nov, and Nov becomes more like Oct and we can get major threats from the Carribean into FL. Of course you have upper level winds too, but if the waters are warmer and fronts have harder time making it down and all.

[USTropics]

If SSTs keep warming like they are, season extended longer for landfalls? It seems the last 15 years or so the seasons tend to peak later, but also the SST stay warmer into Dec too. I remember around Christmas 2015 the Gulf was still around 80 degrees in a lot of places.

If we keep seeing these warmer temps is it possible everything is pushed out a month, like December is like most of November? So it's possible to get landfalls on the west coast of FL from a slop system like you would see in Nov, and Nov becomes more like Oct and we can get major threats from the Carribean into FL. Of course you have upper level winds too, but if the waters are warmer and fronts have harder time making it down and all.

You are correct, the onset of fall and winter has been increasingly pushed back as our oceans (excellent heat capacitors) slowly acclimate to increasing global temperatures. There are 3 main factors to look at:

Extended warm season: Warmer sea surface temperatures can lead to a longer warm season in tropical regions. This extended period provides a larger window for hurricane formation and intensification.

Increased atmospheric moisture: Warmer ocean temperatures can increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Moisture is a crucial component for tropical system development.

Shifts in atmospheric conditions: Climate change can also influence atmospheric conditions, such as wind patterns and atmospheric stability, which can impact hurricane behavior. These changes may affect the duration and intensity of hurricane seasons.

It's important to note that while there is scientific consensus on the relationship between warming sea surface temperatures and hurricane activity, predicting specific changes in future hurricane seasons can be challenging due to the complexity of climate systems and other influencing factors (e.g., Walker/Hadley cell influences, how do annual oscillations respond like enso, how do ocean circulations like the amoc behave to a new climate, how do seasonal progressions change, etc) . However, it is reasonable to expect that if sea surface temperatures continue to increase, we may observe longer and more active hurricane seasons in the future.

[Ianswfl]

If SSTs keep warming like they are, season extended longer for landfalls? It seems the last 15 years or so the seasons tend to peak later, but also the SST stay warmer into Dec too. I remember around Christmas 2015 the Gulf was still around 80 degrees in a lot of places.

If we keep seeing these warmer temps is it possible everything is pushed out a month, like December is like most of November? So it's possible to get landfalls on the west coast of FL from a slop system like you would see in Nov, and Nov becomes more like Oct and we can get major threats from the Carribean into FL. Of course you have upper level winds too, but if the waters are warmer and fronts have harder time making it down and all.

You are correct, the onset of fall and winter has been increasingly pushed back as our oceans (excellent heat capacitors) slowly acclimate to increasing global temperatures. There are 3 main factors to look at:

Extended warm season: Warmer sea surface temperatures can lead to a longer warm season in tropical regions. This extended period provides a larger window for hurricane formation and intensification.

Increased atmospheric moisture: Warmer ocean temperatures can increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Moisture is a crucial component for tropical system development.

Shifts in atmospheric conditions: Climate change can also influence atmospheric conditions, such as wind patterns and atmospheric stability, which can impact hurricane behavior. These changes may affect the duration and intensity of hurricane seasons.

It's important to note that while there is scientific consensus on the relationship between warming sea surface temperatures and hurricane activity, predicting specific changes in future hurricane seasons can be challenging due to the complexity of climate systems and other influencing factors (e.g., Walker/Hadley cell influences, how do annual oscillations respond like enso, how do ocean circulations like the amoc behave to a new climate, how do seasonal progressions change, etc) . However, it is reasonable to expect that if sea surface temperatures continue to increase, we may observe longer and more active hurricane seasons in the future.

I think it was last year in Jan we almost could have had a STS form in the Gulf! Remember the Euro showed it? but it ended up forming 120 miles north along the northern Gulf coast instead.

Also, that low pressure system in December 2021 that hit here in SWFL brought hurricane force gusts to Punta Gorda area which lead me getting a new roof before Ian! Joe Bastardi argued it should have been named. Water temps were upper 70s which is warmer than needed for a sub tropical system. IMO it should have been named. The low formed at the surface.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/3a ... d2f154cd04

[JetFuel_SE]

Water temps were upper 70s which is warmer than needed for a sub tropical system

If you look at the Mediterranean, 60F seems to be more than enough for formation lol.