2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS is a bit south so far, and gets into HIspianola (out to 240 hours)

[Blown Away]

18z GFS is a bit south so far, and gets into HIspianola (out to 240 hours)
https://i.imgur.com/x2xCSxv.png

18z GFS Likely would have been a hurricane if just N or S of Hispaniola… Let’s see what it looks like after land…

[BobHarlem]

Back into the Gulf.



GFS is a bit too far out right now, and it really depends if it can get its act together before it gets toward the Caribbean, mid level dry air is going to be the main counter for this one, which I think is what the Euro is leaning toward, and that really is probably more likely at this point.

This run heads up to Mississippi, way too far out to believe right now.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro hinted at TS development and 12z backed off. GFS 12z & 18z showing a potent system into NE Caribbean and into GOM. If NHC buys this the 7 day lemon should be in the Central Atlantic soon b/c GFS says development starts in 6-7 days…

[869MB]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1680719633467453441

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS… Most active so far with development.

[Spacecoast]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4xYJDXbt/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh90-318.gif [/url]

18z GEFS… Most active so far with development.

4 members (20%) show hurricane days 8-15
1 of those members (5%) gets MH into gulf. Shows 933mb (Cat4?) into La day 15

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS

[Blown Away]

00z GFS… Much stronger with strong TS/Hurricane into NE Caribbean @9 days…

[SFLcane]

Surely don’t like the look of this pattern!

[Category5Kaiju]

Nothing remarkable to look at on the recent GFS, future Emily is just trying its best to mimic a storm from 2019…

[ElectricStorm]

No lemon on the newest TWO but I'd imagine we'll see one pretty soon for this wave. If it can develop in the MDR before it reaches the islands, that would be the third TC to do that already this season. The last time 3 TCs formed east of the islands in the MDR before August was 2017 (TS Bret, TD 4, and TS Don), and it's been a while before that (I stopped looking at 2004 so it's definitely before then). Definitely a rare occurrence.

[JetFuel_SE]

No lemon on the newest TWO but I'd imagine we'll see one pretty soon for this wave. If it can develop in the MDR before it reaches the islands, that would be the third TC to do that already this season. The last time 3 TCs formed east of the islands in the MDR before August was 2017 (TS Bret, TD 4, and TS Don), and it's been a while before that (I stopped looking at 2004 so it's definitely before then). Definitely a rare occurrence.

It did happen in 1933 (Trinidad Hurricane, Texas Tropical Storm, and Florida-Mexico Hurricane).

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF operational was quiet, but some activity with the ECENS…

[GCANE]

ICON has a wave coming off the African coast in about 48 hrs and keeps it intact thru its trek into the MDR.
Its the same one GFS is developing into a TC.

[Jr0d]

ICON has a wave coming off the African coast in about 48 hrs and keeps it intact thru its trek into the MDR.
Its the same one GFS is developing into a TC.

I was just about to post the Icon was hinting at something. The ECMWF is showing the same wave track all the way to Florida/Cuba(with no development, but still trackable). Edit to add: Euro ensembles are getting interesting also!

Definitely getting more interesting. While I think the GFS's last run was bonkers, this is certainly becoming something to watch.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Continues developing into MH but misses NE Caribbean, Bahamas, and CONUS on this run.

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS... (2) Camps, recurve and into Bahamas... If low consolidates, location where this happens and forward speed the biggest factors...

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1680899393690411013




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1680901907546554368




The chances of anything developing at all are still marginal due to the typical early season issues of dry air and fast trades. The GFS is likely overdoing it as it often does beyond the 5-7 day mark.

[wxman57]

Nothing to see here, folks. GFS is developing another spurious hurricane in the long range. Such development is quite unlikely. Enjoy the quiet over the next couple of weeks.