2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cpv17]

18z run is much more realistic, perhaps a TD/weak TS forming before falling apart due to shear near the islands. Still about a month too early to see any strong CV storms.

IMO chances of development are probably around 20-30% right now.

All it needs to do is make it make it to the NW Caribbean or SW Atlantic without completely dying off and it could go boom.

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs ensembles

[Category5Kaiju]

The way I see things, I'd like to monitor trends and ensembles rather than individual runs. Especially this early, the GFS may (or may not be) correct in the idea of an MDR storm forming and then threatening Florida, the Bahamas, or wherever. But exact intensity and track are still up in the air. Literally 3 runs ago, the GFS had the idea of Dorian 2.0. Then now it's nothing. These fluctuations and run-to-run inconsistencies will inevitably occur, but it'll be key to see what is favored as we progress through this week. Will it be a nothingburger, or will it be a somethingburger?

[Blown Away]

18z gfs ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/I2xvXmm.png

18z GEFS appear at bit more active than previous runs…

[Cpv17]

The way I see things, I'd like to monitor trends and ensembles rather than individual runs. Especially this early, the GFS may (or may not be) correct in the idea of an MDR storm forming and then threatening Florida, the Bahamas, or wherever. But exact intensity and track are still up in the air. Literally 3 runs ago, the GFS had the idea of Dorian 2.0. Then now it's nothing. These fluctuations and run-to-run inconsistencies will inevitably occur, but it'll be key to see what is favored as we progress through this week. Will it be a nothingburger, or will it be a somethingburger?

This ^

I couldn’t really care less what operationals say at this range. They will flip flop all over the place. Pay attention to the ensembles.

[Teban54]

The way I see things, I'd like to monitor trends and ensembles rather than individual runs. Especially this early, the GFS may (or may not be) correct in the idea of an MDR storm forming and then threatening Florida, the Bahamas, or wherever. But exact intensity and track are still up in the air. Literally 3 runs ago, the GFS had the idea of Dorian 2.0. Then now it's nothing. These fluctuations and run-to-run inconsistencies will inevitably occur, but it'll be key to see what is favored as we progress through this week. Will it be a nothingburger, or will it be a somethingburger?

Yeah, I don't think anyone is taking the GFS runs of 960mb landfalling majors at verbatim, but the potential for at least a TD/TS in the MDR is very real (even if not too high) and bears watching.

[LemieT]

This model prognosticating is fun and exciting. My overall take over the years has been if the majority of models have a trackable feature (even if it's "just a tropical wave"), something will be there. What that something will be is yet to be determined and the tropics are always FULL of surprises. I'm guessing it won't be until we get to the later part of the week that the picture becomes much clearer.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh boy, this 00z GFS run is going to be a wild one, I can tell

What-would-be-Emily-assuming-no-surprise-storms-happen-before builds a solid core in the MDR before recurving east of the Lesser Antilles. A stark contrast compared to the 18z run.

[hurricane2025]

Will be fish this run ridge weakening

[Blown Away]

00z GFS is back to MH… Recurves pretty sharp, would think it doesn’t take much to miss that trough… Still way to far out to draw any reasonable conclusions…

[emeraldislenc]

Way to early to make conclusions!

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS: much weaker with this vs the prior two runs with only one H (a MH). At 0Z yesterday, it was way more active and with 7 H (5-6 MH).

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS it stays in the Caribbean, quite a bit different from the 0z which was out to sea. Euro and CMC operational have nothing really other than a barely identifiable wave eventually wandering into Central America. There are a few ensembles on both the Euro and GFS side that develop it, but less members than yesterday.

6z gfs has it west of Cuba though after its Caribbean sea run.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS is much more realistic in keeping the wave south through the Caribbean as a wave, not a hurricane. Close to the Euro.

[Teban54]

When the GFS is the outlier, don't believe it. I think the wave near Africa will most likely track through the Caribbean without development.

Agreed. And the fact that the operational Canadian model and all of it's ensemble members don't develop this wave is quite telling. The Canadian is typically one of the more bullish models in showing TC genesis.

Not necessarily: A few users have commented on how CMC went from "Constantly Making Cyclones" to "Can't Make Cyclones" at various times this year.

Case in point...
 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1681158886802493445

Something is broken with the Canadian model. It for some reason is unable to intensify any TC these days. It is the only model not doing anything with Don, not to mention anything in the tropical Atlantic

[LarryWx]

So, CMC is broken the other way now. Which is worse?

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON has the typical quiet late July in the MDR throughout the run.

[ScottNAtlanta]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/2jxrv8cv/gfs-z500a-atl-fh192-384.gif [/url]
00z GFS is back to MH… Recurves pretty sharp, would think it doesn’t take much to miss that trough… Still way to far out to draw any reasonable conclusions…

That's kind of concerning how high pressure strengthens over the top. It being far out not withstanding, if there is a storm there it isn't going to barrel into a high. If that is the pattern it would probably stall and loop back west. That isn't going to be what happens, but remember the GFS has always had a recurve bias when it correctly identifies genesis early. It almost always corrects west as time goes by. Stay tuned

[LarryWx]

Through 168, the 12Z GFS is about as weak as any recent run with the MDR wave being watched.

[Spacecoast]

So, CMC is broken the other way now. Which is worse?

... Quite the philosophical question.