Texas Summer 2023

[South Texas Storms]

Ughhhh

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1RqXdOXsAIKx1G?format=png&name=4096x4096

Unfortunately I'm afraid this will probably continue well into August...I hate our nonstop summer heat.

[Brent]

Ughhhh

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1RqXdOXsAIKx1G?format=png&name=4096x4096

Good grief! What if it was a La Nina year? Likely in the 110s basically nonstop.

We haven't really seen a full blown atmospheric coupling into a true +ENSO background state yet this summer. In fact, we are about to see something more in line with La Nina over the next couple of weeks, which opens the door for a tropical system to threaten the Gulf or SE.

I tend to agree that we're still kind of in a La Nina especially the further south you go but at the same time as I've said before some places up here are acting more like El Nino with near record rainfall. I mean that's probably a sign of things to come down the road but yeah for now it seems like it hasn't fully transitioned

[Nederlander]

Good grief! What if it was a La Nina year? Likely in the 110s basically nonstop.

We haven't really seen a full blown atmospheric coupling into a true +ENSO background state yet this summer. In fact, we are about to see something more in line with La Nina over the next couple of weeks, which opens the door for a tropical system to threaten the Gulf or SE.

I tend to agree that we're still kind of in a La Nina especially the further south you go but at the same time as I've said before some places up here are acting more like El Nino with near record rainfall. I mean that's probably a sign of things to come down the road but yeah for now it seems like it hasn't fully transitioned

Houston has been down right miserable. We would welcome a gulf storm at this point.

[CaptinCrunch]

Good grief! What if it was a La Nina year? Likely in the 110s basically nonstop.

We haven't really seen a full blown atmospheric coupling into a true +ENSO background state yet this summer. In fact, we are about to see something more in line with La Nina over the next couple of weeks, which opens the door for a tropical system to threaten the Gulf or SE.

I tend to agree that we're still kind of in a La Nina especially the further south you go but at the same time as I've said before some places up here are acting more like El Nino with near record rainfall. I mean that's probably a sign of things to come down the road but yeah for now it seems like it hasn't fully transitioned

Hate disagree with you my friend, but we are in a full blown El Nino at this time, and the backgroud state has been El Ninoish since early March.

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ---- 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 ---- 1.1ºC
Niño 3 ---- 1.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ---- 3.4ºC

Significant equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave activity has been present throughout the period shown. From August through November 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Since late November 2022, three downwelling Kelvin waves have occurred. Since March 2023, above-average subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted across the Pacific Ocean. From late May 2023 through present, a fourth downwelling Kelvin has shifted eastward.

This will be a Strong El Nino that will streach all the way into next Spring...

[Ntxw]

We haven't really seen a full blown atmospheric coupling into a true +ENSO background state yet this summer. In fact, we are about to see something more in line with La Nina over the next couple of weeks, which opens the door for a tropical system to threaten the Gulf or SE.

I tend to agree that we're still kind of in a La Nina especially the further south you go but at the same time as I've said before some places up here are acting more like El Nino with near record rainfall. I mean that's probably a sign of things to come down the road but yeah for now it seems like it hasn't fully transitioned

Hate disagree with you my friend, but we are in a full blown El Nino at this time, and the backgroud state has been El Ninoish since early March.

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ---- 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 ---- 1.1ºC
Niño 3 ---- 1.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ---- 3.4ºC

Significant equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave activity has been present throughout the period shown. From August through November 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Since late November 2022, three downwelling Kelvin waves have occurred. Since March 2023, above-average subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted across the Pacific Ocean. From late May 2023 through present, a fourth downwelling Kelvin has shifted eastward.

This will be a Strong El Nino that will streach all the way into next Spring...

The -PDO is what's been messing with some of the rainfall patterns. But in time it is controlled by ENSO so it will cave, is really is a lagging indicator from the 3 years prior of -ENSO.

[DallasAg]

103F as of 1:00 at DFW. Lower dp than most recent days and a slight southwesterly component to the wind. Do we make a run at 110 today?

[Ntxw]

Calling it 108.

[bubba hotep]

I tend to agree that we're still kind of in a La Nina especially the further south you go but at the same time as I've said before some places up here are acting more like El Nino with near record rainfall. I mean that's probably a sign of things to come down the road but yeah for now it seems like it hasn't fully transitioned

Hate disagree with you my friend, but we are in a full blown El Nino at this time, and the backgroud state has been El Ninoish since early March.

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ---- 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 ---- 1.1ºC
Niño 3 ---- 1.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ---- 3.4ºC

Significant equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave activity has been present throughout the period shown. From August through November 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Since late November 2022, three downwelling Kelvin waves have occurred. Since March 2023, above-average subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted across the Pacific Ocean. From late May 2023 through present, a fourth downwelling Kelvin has shifted eastward.

This will be a Strong El Nino that will streach all the way into next Spring...

The -PDO is what's been messing with some of the rainfall patterns. But in time it is controlled by ENSO so it will cave, is really is a lagging indicator from the 3 years prior of -ENSO.

SSTs only tell one part of the story. The MEI is still neutral which is indicative of a lagging atmospheric response to the SST changes. However, it is trending positive and, I agree with Ntxw, we should see a more traditional +ENSO look here soon. But probably not in time to save us from Peak Summer. My hope is that we see an abrupt end to summer in late August and then a cool wet Fall.

[Brent]

Well at least the humidity is lower this time.. probably no 120+ heat index like last week. Progress?

[CaptinCrunch]

Hate disagree with you my friend, but we are in a full blown El Nino at this time, and the backgroud state has been El Ninoish since early March.

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ---- 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 ---- 1.1ºC
Niño 3 ---- 1.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ---- 3.4ºC

Significant equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave activity has been present throughout the period shown. From August through November 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Since late November 2022, three downwelling Kelvin waves have occurred. Since March 2023, above-average subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted across the Pacific Ocean. From late May 2023 through present, a fourth downwelling Kelvin has shifted eastward.

This will be a Strong El Nino that will streach all the way into next Spring...

The -PDO is what's been messing with some of the rainfall patterns. But in time it is controlled by ENSO so it will cave, is really is a lagging indicator from the 3 years prior of -ENSO.

SSTs only tell one part of the story. The MEI is still neutral which is indicative of a lagging atmospheric response to the SST changes. However, it is trending positive and, I agree with Ntxw, we should see a more traditional +ENSO look here soon. But probably not in time to save us from Peak Summer. My hope is that we see an abrupt end to summer in late August and then a cool wet Fall.

I agree, I don't see a change in the current HOT summer trend till we get to September, and I do hope for a cool wet Fall/Winter....but that is miles away at this point.

[bubba hotep]

It sounds like things are really sucking down in Central and South Texas

 https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather/status/1681393902996029456

[South Texas Storms]

It sounds like things are really sucking down in Central and South Texas

https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather/status/1681393902996029456?s=20

They've sucked down here for over a month now. Aren't you glad we shared with you?

[Ntxw]

[South Texas Storms]

109 on this date last year at DFW and 108 so far today. Back to back years of brutal July heat across the state.

[Iceresistance]

There is no escaping the Heat Dome


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SWaDL.png

[TropicalTundra]

My temp on the thermostat is reading 108. Just went and cooked an egg on the sidewalk within like a minute.

This heat's no joke. Stay hydrated folks.

[Iceresistance]

Dang it! I popped 100°F today!

[CaptinCrunch]

It was still 101 @ DFW Airport at 8pm last night. When the temps don't drop from the upper 80's you know the next day is heading well into the 100's

[cstrunk]

Made it to 101F in Longview yesterday. My weather station showed a 77F dewpoint also and a 118F heat index. The airport south of town recorded 101F but a slightly lower dewpoint at that time (72F) which corresponds to a 112F heat index.

SHV didn't pull the trigger on an excessive heat warning yesterday, but did for today and tomorrow. The dewpoints just aren't mixing out as much as expected.

[Iceresistance]

SOI is starting to take a nosedive, today's value is -20.