WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

12Z

[cycloneye]

WP, 98, 2023071800, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1344E, 20, 1004, DB

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS peaks at 937mb before weakening slightly and hitting Taiwan

0z HWRF gets to 944mb before massively expanding it's wind field

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z

[cycloneye]

AT 180300Z THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY
85 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP BROAD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 180028Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL
PASS SHOWS ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FEW 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EAST
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A LARGER SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET
FURTHER SOUTH OF LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 98W WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE
PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[ElectricStorm]

6z GFS might be the strongest run yet, 928mb before eventually moving east of Taiwan and into South Korea

6z HWRF also down to 928mb

[Hayabusa]

06z

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

WP, 98, 2023071818, , BEST, 0, 82N, 1340E, 20, 1004, DB

[Hayabusa]

EPS12z, Euro more south landfall while GFS recurves

[dexterlabio]

Once again a GFS (recurve) vs Euro (west) battle GFS was the winner previously with Mawar so that could be something to note on which model to give more credence. However, it's also worth noting that the GFS is spinning up another circulation in the SCS as it has 98W tracking northward; Euro does not have it

[cycloneye]

WP, 98, 2023071900, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1337E, 20, 1006, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 180300Z THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY
85 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP BROAD
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 180028Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL
PASS SHOWS ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FEW 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EAST
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A LARGER SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET
FURTHER SOUTH OF LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 98W WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE
PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

06z

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

WP, 98, 2023071918, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1313E, 20, 1002, DB

[Hayabusa]

TD a
Issued at 2023/07/19 19:30 UTC
Analysis at 07/19 18 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°30′ (10.5°)
E133°05′ (133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 07/20 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°30′ (13.5°)
E132°25′ (132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 07/21 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°30′ (14.5°)
E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 07/22 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10′ (15.2°)
E128°30′ (128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Forecast for 07/23 18 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25′ (15.4°)
E126°10′ (126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Forecast for 07/24 18 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05′ (17.1°)
E124°25′ (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 520 km (280 NM)