2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... First TW moves over PR then into SFL... Second TW develops and finishes as TS off CONUS... GFS still trying to resolve these 2 TW's in the long range IMO.

[Kingarabian]

GFS back in business it looks like. Won't really know until the waves move away Africa and see how they react.

[LarryWx]

This looks like something that would have been developing immediately off the coast if there was less dry air around.
https://i.postimg.cc/8cj1jjY0/goes16-ir-eatl-1.gif

Are any models developing what's associated with that large area of convection over Africa?

[USTropics]

This looks like something that would have been developing immediately off the coast if there was less dry air around.
https://i.postimg.cc/8cj1jjY0/goes16-ir-eatl-1.gif

Are any models developing what's associated with that large area of convection over Africa?

It's associated with a large, low-level moisture plume that will become embedded in the monsoonal trough later this week. GFS has it lifting a bit north tomorrow:


It could decrease some of the stability issues to the north associated with mid-level dry air + recent SAL outbreak.

[Teban54]

This looks like something that would have been developing immediately off the coast if there was less dry air around.
https://i.postimg.cc/8cj1jjY0/goes16-ir-eatl-1.gif

Are any models developing what's associated with that large area of convection over Africa?

To my amateur eyes, it looks like the system that 6z GFS develops to the east of Bahamas comes from that wave or the wave behind that. The area we've been watching (that has just been marked as a lemon) tries to develop, but dissipates before the Lesser Antilles.

[zzzh]

Monsoon trough breaks down

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/JqQg73G.png
Monsoon trough breaks down

The 12Z Euro is overall quiet and suggests no new TC is likely for the rest of July.

[hurricane2025]

Ensembles went off the chain though

[LarryWx]

Ensembles went off the chain though

The Euro ensembles are back to about where they were at yesterday's 12Z run with 5 H like then though I won't go as far as calling it "off the chain". It keeps jumping back and forth from relatively inactive to moderately active.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro days 9-10.

[Spacecoast]

12z Euro days 9-10.

https://i.imgur.com/IRoEHo7.gif

12z EPS ens Day12: (looks slower than Operational)...


The 0z extended range weekly (101 member ensemble) shows this curving...

[Teban54]

In addition to suddenly blowing up 95L, 0z GFS also shows a stronger vort signature with the wave behind it. Tracks north of Hispaniola.


Edit: 0z operational Euro, which doesn't do much with 95L, now develops the second wave for the first time.


GFS ensembles also show increased support for the second system, with several members making it a recurving hurricane:

[tolakram]

A storm has to take the northern route to survive IMO, so once again Euro shows a wave heading north, like it did with 95L at first. We'll see.

[Teban54]

[REDHurricane]

EPS 0z run this morning is trying to pull a fast one on us with its GEFS impersonation -- featuring half of the ensemble members refusing to develop 95L until reaching the far southwest Caribbean 6-7 days out, the other half developing 95L in the EPac in around 8-9 days, another tropical wave developing NE of the Lesser Antilles in 9-10 days, and one rogue member showing a major hurricane double landfall (first clipping the tip of the Yucatán 9 days out, re-intensifying as it enters the Gulf, and then hitting Houston three days later)

[gatorcane]

Aug 20th “ring the bell” is right around the corner and I expect the models to start lighting up as we get closer especially out over the South-Central Atlantic MDR and off the coast of Africa where those warmer than normal SSTs are at and away from the influence of the strenthening El Niño.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro with wave behind 95L that will emerge from West Africa in a couple of days.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro with wave behind 95L that will emerge from West Africa in a couple of days.

https://i.imgur.com/tNcSi53.gif

The thing is, models had this same thing happening for 95L a few days ago…

[Teban54]

12z Euro with wave behind 95L that will emerge from West Africa in a couple of days.

https://i.imgur.com/tNcSi53.gif

The thing is, models had this same thing happening for 95L a few days ago…

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1682788415329189888

[Cpv17]

12z Euro with wave behind 95L that will emerge from West Africa in a couple of days.

https://i.imgur.com/tNcSi53.gif

The thing is, models had this same thing happening for 95L a few days ago…

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1682788415329189888?t=lCYNJCC_v16UNtp1jKKzKA&s=19

Hmmm, I guess we’ll see. Thanks for posting.