Low Pressure / Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde (is Invest 95L)

[Extratropical94]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Cloudiness and showers over the eastern tropical Atlantic centered
a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated
with a tropical wave. While dry air should prevent significant
organization during the next few days, environmental conditions
could become more conducive for some development by this weekend
while the wave moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic
at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

We've go lift off! Well maybe not...

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS went back to being more inactive with only 3 H vs 5H on the 12Z run.

[Teban54]

12z GFS back to development in the MDR less than 3 days out.


Trend:

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs (So far) a lot more aggressive with this system at 96 hours. And the Canadian now actually shows it also for the first time.

12z gfs


12z Canadian

[AutoPenalti]

I'm guessing now the Euro ensembles dropped this?

[Teban54]

I'm guessing now the Euro ensembles dropped this?

The signal is still there for an MDR TD/TS on the 6z EPS, but they've been trending south and thus no longer blowing up north of the Greater Antilles:

[gatorcane]

Surprised NHC even mentioned it. I think it could develop if it makes it into the EPAC though.

[SFLcane]

Hmm…

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Cloudiness and showers continue over the eastern tropical Atlantic
centered a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands in
association with a tropical wave. While dry air should prevent
significant organization during the next few days, environmental
conditions could become more conducive for some development by this
weekend while the wave moves westward across the central tropical
Atlantic at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS has very little from this and is about as quiet as any recent run.

[BobHarlem]

12z EPS (Euro Ensembles) is more active than 0z, Caribbean the system stays weak, if it makes it north, much stronger.

[Hurrilurker]

Good thing it's not a month from now. Still bears watching though.

[Nimbus]

7 day probability still low 20%, but I hate low riders that could spin up too far west to safely re-curve OTS.

[SFLcane]

[tiger_deF]

While I am expecting this system or the moisture associated with it to go south of the greater Antilles, the modelled environment in the open Atlantic north of the islands is quite problematic. If the wave develops early and sneaks up there, it will have a fantastic upper-air environment and anomalously warm waters + OHC. The GFS runs that moved a developed system North of the islands bombed it out into an intense (and quite large) hurricane. As long as this scenario is avoided, I think that it will be shredded by the graveyard as modelled.

[Spacecoast]

12 EPS:
Tropical Storm Probability ~15%
Day 10 :


Hurricane probabilities <10%:
Day 11:

Day 12:

[Category5Kaiju]

While I am expecting this system or the moisture associated with it to go south of the greater Antilles, the modelled environment in the open Atlantic north of the islands is quite problematic. If the wave develops early and sneaks up there, it will have a fantastic upper-air environment and anomalously warm waters + OHC. The GFS runs that moved a developed system North of the islands bombed it out into an intense (and quite large) hurricane. As long as this scenario is avoided, I think that it will be shredded by the graveyard as modelled.

While extremely unlikely in this case, we saw this scenario happen in real time back in 2019, when a certain storm did that and became a very destructive Category 5 hurricane.

[Hurrilurker]

While I am expecting this system or the moisture associated with it to go south of the greater Antilles, the modelled environment in the open Atlantic north of the islands is quite problematic. If the wave develops early and sneaks up there, it will have a fantastic upper-air environment and anomalously warm waters + OHC. The GFS runs that moved a developed system North of the islands bombed it out into an intense (and quite large) hurricane. As long as this scenario is avoided, I think that it will be shredded by the graveyard as modelled.

The one that scares me is the track showing 961mb just north of the Bahamas (missed Hispaniola), still well off the US coast in warm waters, and curving westward.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands is currently interacting with the Intertropical Convergence
Zone. The combination of these features is producing a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms over the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. While dry air to the north may prevent significant
organization during the next few days, environmental conditions
could become more conducive for some development by this weekend as
the wave moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin