2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Ianswfl]

If you look at the Mediterranean, 60F seems to be more than enough for formation lol.

That's because the upper atmosphere is colder. Just like in the Atlantic too to an extent you see storms, sub tropical storms forming over lower to mid 70s water temps if the atmosphere is upper atmosphere is cold. You don't see that in the EPAC for example.

However you won't get major hurricanes in the Mediterranean.

[SFLcane]

[abajan]

What on earth is going on east of Newfoundland Island? Those water temps are way above normal!

[Woofde]

I know this chart has been posted a few times somewhat recently, but it is truly remarkable just how warm the Atlantic is right now. We still likely have a month+ of solid warming left and the Atlantic is already at the upper bound of peak season. Going to be an interesting season watching an El nino vs these record breaking temperatures.

[cycloneye]

This is a big sal outbreak that is second to the most dense one of June, 2020. Aerosol Optical Thickness values ranging between 0.2 and 0.4.

[LarryWx]

Marathon, FL, in the Keys has had an amazing 12 days in a row of 96-99F for highs including today! Their highest on record back to 1950 is 99, which was tied this month.

[Hurricane2022]

Marathon, FL, in the Keys has had an amazing 12 days in a row of 96-99F for highs including today! Their highest on record back to 1950 is 99, which was tied this month.

Is there any (small) chance that global warming will subside a bit? Where I live it's too hot, the temperatures this winter that were supposed to be mild seem like an ordinary summer sometimes, not even last year it was that hot!!

[LarryWx]

Marathon, FL, in the Keys has had an amazing 12 days in a row of 96-99F for highs including today! Their highest on record back to 1950 is 99, which was tied this month.

Is there any (small) chance that global warming will subside a bit? Where I live it's too hot, the temperatures this winter that were supposed to be mild seem like an ordinary summer sometimes, not even last year it was that hot!!

From what I've learned, there's little chance in the near future unfortunately. But there's always hope for individual cooler seasons from time to time, especially non-summer.

[USTropics]

Marathon, FL, in the Keys has had an amazing 12 days in a row of 96-99F for highs including today! Their highest on record back to 1950 is 99, which was tied this month.

Is there any (small) chance that global warming will subside a bit? Where I live it's too hot, the temperatures this winter that were supposed to be mild seem like an ordinary summer sometimes, not even last year it was that hot!!

The Earth's climate system inertia acts as a time lag effect to global average temperature rise and anthropogenic forcings; even if we were to completely stop emitting greenhouse gases today temperatures would still rise for the next several decades to century. That is, while our oceans are excellent heat capacitors that can store large amounts of heat, it will still take decades to centuries for the ocean-atmosphere to reach a new energy budget equilibrium point. That's not to mention the feedback loops we've already triggered that have amplified global warming trends (e.g., significant retreat of sea ice in both the Artic and Antarctic, ice-albedo feedback, permafrost thaw feedback, etc.). It has impacts on this hurricane season as well (how does a building El Nino still influence atmospheric circulations when it's not as dominant a feature due to anomalous warmth in other basins?)Sadly we are likely past mitigating climate change, and will have to invest in ways to adapt instead.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1681464079754358784

[Category5Kaiju]

Definitely getting to that point in the season where captainbarbossa's timeline becomes relevant

I almost forgot to post it this year! Thank you for reminding me!

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

Given the El Nino nature of this year, we can modify July 15th (or 19th, I suppose) to "SAL and dry air are still present. While models intermittently show something in the near future, many are beginning to question the season's potential already as if it were already peak season"

July 15-August 15, for sure, is the absolute pinnacle of season cancel. Particularly amongst wx folks on social media who are new to tracking storms or don't really pay attention to every relevant variable that is present.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Definitely getting to that point in the season where captainbarbossa's timeline becomes relevant

I almost forgot to post it this year! Thank you for reminding me!

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

Given the El Nino nature of this year, we can modify July 15th (or 19th, I suppose) to "SAL and dry air are still present. While models intermittently show something in the near future, many are beginning to question the season's potential already as if it were already peak season"

July 15-August 15, for sure, is the absolute pinnacle of season cancel. Particularly amongst wx folks on social media who are new to tracking storms or don't really pay attention to every relevant variable that is present.

Admittedly I'm going off memory, but things are already seemingly more favorable in the mdr than last year at this time. As I recall it took well into August before anything off Africa was tagged by the NHC post Bonnie. I remember models being dead quiet as well, and whatever signal for development that did occur died immediately the second any wave touched the Atlantic Ocean. The model signal for this current wave over the mdr is still alive even if weakened, can't say the same for last year. I know 2022 was an extreme anomaly, but it's already looking like we're not going down that path at least. The unfavorability we're seeing now seems to be much more normal and not exactly an indication of how this season's going to play out.

[Spacecoast]

Interesting update from Weather Tiger....
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2023/07/19/florida-hurricane-season-forecast-for-late-july-tracking-the-tropics/70428199007/
<snip>

"There’s also not a lot to be gleaned from the relatively busy season so far, with 2023’s five storms producing more Accumulated Cyclone Energy to date than about 85% of seasons since 1950. There is no relationship between either Atlantic hurricane activity or U.S. landfalls occurring before Aug. 1 and how busy the rest of the year is. The correlation coefficients are, quite literally, zero."

"One caveat: there is some indication that a busy late July increases the chance of an active peak season, as favorable upper-level winds now can presage a supportive pattern for development in September. So, if the Atlantic can stay quiet for another few weeks, that would be cautiously encouraging."

"...eastern Gulf and Florida’s coastal waters are mostly shallow and water temperatures can pivot on a dime. This means that even excessive near-shore July SSTs have little historical bearing on how busy the hurricane season ahead will be."

[LarryWx]

Interesting update from Weather Tiger....
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2023/07/19/florida-hurricane-season-forecast-for-late-july-tracking-the-tropics/70428199007/

"...eastern Gulf and Florida’s coastal waters are mostly shallow and water temperatures can pivot on a dime. This means that even excessive near-shore July SSTs have little historical bearing on how busy the hurricane season ahead will be."

A great example is the Johnson Key buoy, which is in N FL Bay. This buoy peaked way up in the previously unheard of and widespread media noted upper 90s on ~5 days last week. Yesterday its hourly SST high was only 90.1 (7PM), a 7+ drop. And this morning's SST low was 85.5 at 7-8AM. It may not even reach 90 today as it is still only at 86.2 as of 11AM.

Johnson Key has a depth of only ~5 feet. That extreme shallowness combined with a much wetter pattern this week vs the SAL aided bone dry of much of last week has made just about all of the difference. So, that cooling didn't even require anything even close to a TC.

Johnson buoy hourlies:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1

[Woofde]

Interesting update from Weather Tiger....
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2023/07/19/florida-hurricane-season-forecast-for-late-july-tracking-the-tropics/70428199007/
<snip>

"There’s also not a lot to be gleaned from the relatively busy season so far, with 2023’s five storms producing more Accumulated Cyclone Energy to date than about 85% of seasons since 1950. There is no relationship between either Atlantic hurricane activity or U.S. landfalls occurring before Aug. 1 and how busy the rest of the year is. The correlation coefficients are, quite literally, zero."

"One caveat: there is some indication that a busy late July increases the chance of an active peak season, as favorable upper-level winds now can presage a supportive pattern for development in September. So, if the Atlantic can stay quiet for another few weeks, that would be cautiously encouraging."

"...eastern Gulf and Florida’s coastal waters are mostly shallow and water temperatures can pivot on a dime. This means that even excessive near-shore July SSTs have little historical bearing on how busy the hurricane season ahead will be."

The tidbit about early season makes sense. Though I doubt these SSTs are going to pivot on a dime. The anomalies extend into the entire basin not just past the shoreline and coastal waters.

[LarryWx]

Interesting update from Weather Tiger....
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2023/07/19/florida-hurricane-season-forecast-for-late-july-tracking-the-tropics/70428199007/
<snip>

"...eastern Gulf and Florida’s coastal waters are mostly shallow and water temperatures can pivot on a dime. This means that even excessive near-shore July SSTs have little historical bearing on how busy the hurricane season ahead will be."

The tidbit about early season makes sense. Though I doubt these SSTs are going to pivot on a dime. The anomalies extend into the entire basin not just past the shoreline and coastal waters.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230719/10f2ed8029cca18d84bf124dbbf01581.jpg

They're only talking about the very shallow and volatile coastal waters. I assume you agree that those turn on a dime quite often. See my post just above yours regarding Johnson Key for a good example. But I agree about the much deeper further out water. The NH is well into record warm territory and is still warming further. That warmth won't cool off on a dime.

[WiscoWx02]

MJO looks to just camp out in the "null" phase over the next week or two. While this can change it really isn't a look that favors any particular basin including the Atlantic, but it also doesn't really aid in El Nino developing either. If the MJO continues to dance in the null phase like this through the rest of July and further into August I don't expect shear and subsidence to be as much of an issue as it would be if more rising motion was centered over the Pacific. Also leads into the idea that any rising motion in the Atlantic or really anywhere around the globe the next few weeks will likely be CCKW induced.

[LarryWx]

Interesting update from Weather Tiger....
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2023/07/19/florida-hurricane-season-forecast-for-late-july-tracking-the-tropics/70428199007/

"...eastern Gulf and Florida’s coastal waters are mostly shallow and water temperatures can pivot on a dime. This means that even excessive near-shore July SSTs have little historical bearing on how busy the hurricane season ahead will be."

A great example is the Johnson Key buoy, which is in N FL Bay. This buoy peaked way up in the previously unheard of and widespread media noted upper 90s on ~5 days last week. Yesterday its hourly SST high was only 90.1 (7PM), a 7+ drop. And this morning's SST low was 85.5 at 7-8AM. It may not even reach 90 today as it is still only at 86.2 as of 11AM.

Johnson Key has a depth of only ~5 feet. That extreme shallowness combined with a much wetter pattern this week vs the SAL aided bone dry of much of last week has made just about all of the difference. So, that cooling didn't even require anything even close to a TC.

Johnson buoy hourlies:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1

The Johnson Key buoy SST ended up warming rapidly after the showers moved out from 85.5 at 8AM to 91.2 at 4PM with more warming to go. Yesterday's warmest was only 90.1 vs upper 90s on many days last week.

[Hurricane2022]

2013!
 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1681787562636058624

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm also going to say that it's arguably very impressive that we're talking about the potential for something to form in the MDR in late July. Normally (even in a decent number of active seasons), you don't really see this kind of thing happen. The way I see this: imagine the reactions we would have if, instead, we did not have any sign whatsoever of anything forming anytime soon (even if it's late July).