2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[zzzh]

June is the new August, July is the new June, August is the new July. Tropical Atlantic is becoming less and less active in July and August.

[CyclonicFury]

Overall, this July seems to be fairly typical. We have had one tropical storm so far, Don, which has actually been very long-lived for July. I'm not entirely convinced the MDR system will develop, but if it does, that could potentially be our second July storm.

[USTropics]

June is the new August, July is the new June, August is the new July. Tropical Atlantic is becoming less and less active in July and August.

The Don wants a word with you:


All teasing aside, the 1991-2020 mean for tropical storms in July is 1.6. 1851-2020, June + July account for 13% of named storms for the year (August is at 22%, September jumps to 33%, and even October has 21% of named storms).

[zzzh]

Don is not in tropical Atlantic.

[abajan]

Need we be reminded that despite prognostications for a hyperactive 2022, by many amateurs and experts alike, we ended up with just an average season?
The following is excerpted from the Wikipedia article summarizing the season:

Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing.

So, with Atlantic sea surface temps being even warmer than last year (much warmer) but coupled with a present-and-continuing-to-develop El Niño in place, can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out? After all, to my knowledge, there's no previous season whose global environmental conditions are comparable to the current one. Is there?

[Kingarabian]

Need we be reminded that despite prognostications for a hyperactive 2022, by many amateurs and experts alike, we ended up with just an average season?
The following is excerpted from the Wikipedia article summarizing the season:

Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing.

So, with Atlantic sea surface temps being even warmer than last year (much warmer) but coupled with a present-and-continuing-to-develop El Niño in place, can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out? After all, to my knowledge, there's no previous season whose global environmental conditions are comparable to the current one. Is there?

Only negative this season for the Atlantic hurricane season is above average shear in parts of the Caribbean.

Positives:
Record SST anomalies.
Favorable SST configuration.
Less than normal SAL.
EPAC hurricane season isn't forecast to be much more than above average.

[Teban54]

Need we be reminded that despite prognostications for a hyperactive 2022, by many amateurs and experts alike, we ended up with just an average season?
The following is excerpted from the Wikipedia article summarizing the season:

Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing.

So, with Atlantic sea surface temps being even warmer than last year (much warmer) but coupled with a present-and-continuing-to-develop El Niño in place, can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out? After all, to my knowledge, there's no previous season whose global environmental conditions are comparable to the current one. Is there?

2022 was almost as much of an anomaly as 2013 was. The wavebreaking pattern that plagued 2022 has not been in place this year, so far.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1681737734409318401

[Spacecoast]

Need we be reminded that despite prognostications for a hyperactive 2022, by many amateurs and experts alike, we ended up with just an average season?
The following is excerpted from the Wikipedia article summarizing the season:

Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing.

So, with Atlantic sea surface temps being even warmer than last year (much warmer) but coupled with a present-and-continuing-to-develop El Niño in place, can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out? After all, to my knowledge, there's no previous season whose global environmental conditions are comparable to the current one. Is there?

last year, experts cited very high (record?) SST's and low chance of El Niño developing to forecast 18/8/4.
this year, experts cited record SST's, and high chance of moderate-strong El Niño developing to forecast 18/9/4.

It seems if El Niño vs La Niña are less influential than SST's, then all future seasons will be above average.
Reminds me of a fictional town in Minnesota where "all the children are above average".

Can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out?
I have no reasonable degree of certainty, just an unreasonable degree of uncertainty.

[Ntxw]

Need we be reminded that despite prognostications for a hyperactive 2022, by many amateurs and experts alike, we ended up with just an average season?
The following is excerpted from the Wikipedia article summarizing the season:

Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing.

So, with Atlantic sea surface temps being even warmer than last year (much warmer) but coupled with a present-and-continuing-to-develop El Niño in place, can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out? After all, to my knowledge, there's no previous season whose global environmental conditions are comparable to the current one. Is there?

last year, experts cited very high (record?) SST's and low chance of El Niño developing to forecast 18/8/4.
this year, experts cited record SST's, and high chance of moderate-strong El Niño developing to forecast 18/9/4.

It seems if El Niño vs La Niña are less influential than SST's, then all future seasons will be above average.
Reminds me of a fictional town in Minnesota where "all the children are above average".

Can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out?
I have no reasonable degree of certainty, just an unreasonable degree of uncertainty.

Anecdotal, but maybe Larry can provide some stats. We haven't had a true cold PDO El Nino in a long time (PDO negative majority of the year) like a 1972. Globally I would think this combo generally doesn't have a lot of ACE in the NHEM (naturally since the Pacific is prolific in warm PDOs with ACE.)

As far as the Atlantic cold PDO El Nino's probably aren't that great with ACE either on this side, you tend to produce a lot of ACE the more modoki type El Nino (which again often pushed/infuenced to be by warm PDO periods.) But the annual record warm SSTs is a question mark.

[abajan]

Need we be reminded that despite prognostications for a hyperactive 2022, by many amateurs and experts alike, we ended up with just an average season?
The following is excerpted from the Wikipedia article summarizing the season:

Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing.

So, with Atlantic sea surface temps being even warmer than last year (much warmer) but coupled with a present-and-continuing-to-develop El Niño in place, can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out? After all, to my knowledge, there's no previous season whose global environmental conditions are comparable to the current one. Is there?

last year, experts cited very high (record?) SST's and low chance of El Niño developing to forecast 18/8/4.
this year, experts cited record SST's, and high chance of moderate-strong El Niño developing to forecast 18/9/4.

It seems if El Niño vs La Niña are less influential than SST's, then all future seasons will be above average.
Reminds me of a fictional town in Minnesota where "all the children are above average".

Can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out?
I have no reasonable degree of certainty, just an unreasonable degree of uncertainty.

Okay, fair enough.

[LemieT]

Need we be reminded that despite prognostications for a hyperactive 2022, by many amateurs and experts alike, we ended up with just an average season?
The following is excerpted from the Wikipedia article summarizing the season:

Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing.

So, with Atlantic sea surface temps being even warmer than last year (much warmer) but coupled with a present-and-continuing-to-develop El Niño in place, can any of us state with any reasonable degree of certainty how this season will pan out? After all, to my knowledge, there's no previous season whose global environmental conditions are comparable to the current one. Is there?

This is the fun of forecasting.

I was reading some early season forecasts and the reasoning behind them for 2017. Models late in the pre-season suggested a possible El Nino forming by peak seaosn and no one really knew what the season would hold. Even after Harvey formed East of Barbados in mid-August a lot of people were declaring the MDR dead due to dry air. We all know how that panned out.

I have found in many cases the big years had some seemingly clear negative factors going against them from early. Seasons where all of the markers suggested they would/should be favorable, often struggled with a previously silent hinderance; 2013/2022 of most recent vintage.

I put it like this, sometimes you can have "too much of a good thing". 2020 was also a case like this even though it had a record number of storms, the ACE really didn't bear out its potential. The WAM was alsmot too strong and the waves too big so it was overwhelming itself.

Last year amid the hype I went 17/8/3 ACE:135 for my numbers and still busted high.
This year I am 15/7/3 ACE:105 and in some ways I feel I will be on the other side of the spectrum this time around.

Time always tells and it seems very rare in this modern era for a season to go by without one blockbuster storm, active or not. To that end, I say the hurricane season is never "dead".

[cycloneye]

Looks like the window for some Atlantic activity will not be big.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1682134806673469441

@AndyHazelton
·
1h
This low-frequency VP200 look on the EPS weeklies is opposite of what we saw in August/September 2020-2022: rising focused over the Pacific (due to the strengthening +ENSO) with sinking over the Indian Ocean. Control member tells a similar story (though with more variability).

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1682147437547343875

@AndyHazelton
If the +ENSO background is verbatim as strong as modeled here, I think it would be hard to get to average or certainly above. The CCKWs slowing in the Pacific is a sign of a healthy Niño circulation, and probably a lot of East Pacific activity.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1682145832253157376

@BenNollWeather The pulse crossing Africa in the first half of August looks interesting, but after that, the Pacific looks pretty dominant.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the window for some Atlantic activity will not be big.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1682134806673469441

@AndyHazelton
·
1h
This low-frequency VP200 look on the EPS weeklies is opposite of what we saw in August/September 2020-2022: rising focused over the Pacific (due to the strengthening +ENSO) with sinking over the Indian Ocean. Control member tells a similar story (though with more variability).

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1682147437547343875

@AndyHazelton
If the +ENSO background is verbatim as strong as modeled here, I think it would be hard to get to average or certainly above. The CCKWs slowing in the Pacific is a sign of a healthy Niño circulation, and probably a lot of East Pacific activity.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1682145832253157376

@BenNollWeather The pulse crossing Africa in the first half of August looks interesting, but after that, the Pacific looks pretty dominant.

It's kind of amusing to see some comments within that generic thread acting as though if this were to happen (and you can't say for certain at this point in time whether this will indeed happen or not), then it would be a death sentence for Atlantic activity (I'm not talking about Ben or Andy, just to clarify what I'm trying to say here). Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not sure if that's how things work.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1682193206933352450

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1682323478018510849

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/beneficiary42/status/1682322973112532992

[Steve]

Some of the more reliable MJO models (Australian and Japanese - (BOMA/BOMM and JMAN) are suggesting favorable MJO conditions (Phase 8 and 1 with Australian and Phase 2 for Japanese) in the next couple of weeks. JMAN is earlier and goes out the circle next weekend into 2, and BOMM goes through 8 and 1 and a piece of 2 before returning to the circle around August 10th. So the window for possible next western basin activity would be somewhere between the 1st and 10th of August. Models will trend how they will by the end of next week and we can see if they are getting more or less bullish by then.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

Also, the warm anomalies off of New England and Eastern Canada are notable. If that stays in place through the heart of the season, we could see stronger systems in that general area than would be typical.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[gatorcane]

Here is the link the 768 hour CFS from Pivotal Weather. Not much going on yet except a storm at the very end (Aug 22) east of the Lesser Antilles moving NW. That area where the CFS shows development looks favorable with those above normal SSTs:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Kingarabian]

Here is the link the 768 hour CFS from Pivotal Weather. Not much going on yet except a storm at the very end (Aug 22) east of the Lesser Antilles moving NW. That area where the CFS shows development looks favorable with those above normal SSTs:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

As JB likes to say... never makes a forecast off a forecast. I think 2 named MDR systems and another red circle so far is no fluke.