ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[tolakram]

AL, 95, 2023071918, , BEST, 0, 94N, 404W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072000, , BEST, 0, 98N, 400W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072006, , BEST, 0, 103N, 394W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072012, , BEST, 0, 107N, 390W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072018, , BEST, 0, 110N, 388W, 25, 1015, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072100, , BEST, 0, 113N, 387W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al952023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Hurricane2022]

Waiting to see the HWRF showing a (major) hurricane at day 5!

[tolakram]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed within the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is also interacting with a
tropical wave located farther east, and their combination is
producing an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic. While environmental
conditions appear only somewhat favorable due to the proximity of
dry air to the north, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week, as it begins to move westward
across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

[jlauderdal]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed within the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is also interacting with a
tropical wave located farther east, and their combination is
producing an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic. While environmental
conditions appear only somewhat favorable due to the proximity of
dry air to the north, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week, as it begins to move westward
across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

Good enough for a lemon!

[Blown Away]

NHC moved the 8pm X about 8 degrees W from the 2pm position… Wow big jump.

[cycloneye]

NHC moved the 8pm X about 8 degrees W from the 2pm position… Wow big jump.

That was my catch this morning when I posted the animation of the interesting area near 11N-38W.

[Nimbus]

[BobHarlem]

This may wind up being a relatively tiny system, will be interesting to see how this and the models progress on it because of that.

[Category5Kaiju]

This may wind up being a relatively tiny system, will be interesting to see how this and the models progress on it because of that.

From Hurricane Dorian to EPAC'S Hurricane Darby (2022), we still have work to do regarding accurately modeling small systems. They typically fall apart when under the wrong conditions, but sometimes they don't and do the complete opposite.

[ElectricStorm]

Well this could be interesting. Would be crazy to have 3 MDR storms east of the islands before August.

[zzzh]

Structure is very good. Just needs convection firing up to bring up the wind.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is interacting with a
tropical wave to its east and producing an elongated area of
showers and thunderstorms over the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. While environmental conditions appear marginal due to
dry air to the north, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week, as it moves westward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Teban54]

Still very dry but there's another nice tower popping up.

[abajan]

Still very dry but there's another nice tower popping up.
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9XJ3rPm/goes16-ir-95-L-202307210215.gif

The convection has continued to expand and intensify. Could just be the Dmax effect and will likely wane as the morning progresses. As usual, the Shortwave Infrared (SWIR) version shows the circulation aspect very well, as it normally does at night.

[jlauderdal]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is interacting with a
tropical wave to its east and producing an elongated area of
showers and thunderstorms over the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. While environmental conditions appear marginal due to
dry air to the north, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week, as it moves westward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Still a lemon but a promotion to the sweeter tasting mandarin seems probable in its future.

[abajan]

AL, 95, 2023071918, , BEST, 0, 94N, 404W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072000, , BEST, 0, 98N, 400W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072006, , BEST, 0, 103N, 394W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072012, , BEST, 0, 107N, 390W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072018, , BEST, 0, 110N, 388W, 25, 1015, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 95, 2023072100, , BEST, 0, 113N, 387W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al952023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

For some odd reason, the link you posted in the last reply in the Low Pressure / Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde (is Invest 95L) topic, that points to this topic, logs me out of S2K whenever I click it.

[MHC Tracking]

Already starting to see the first evidence of what looks like banding, with the earlier ASCAT pass, it only needs persistent deep convection and it's pretty much a TC. Will be interesting to see whether models continue to play catchup like with other miniature systems. Very healthy so far

[Ivanhater]

We have seen time and time again Global models struggle with small systems. Quite evident uptick in development chances the last 24 hours. I suspect an incremental increase in development percentage each outlook with possible code red by tomorrow.

[Chemmers]

very low windshear on top off it at the time been, defo wouldnt be surprised if they increased the odds on the next update