ATL: DON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Maybe 70kt or 75kt with this look?

https://i.imgur.com/O49TGgJ.gif

I think 75 kt is reasonable given how well embedded the eye has become

[AnnularCane]

Is a Hurricane at 5 PM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Don Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

...DON BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS...

[tolakram]

Never count out the Don!

[LarryWx]

This is close to the most impressive looking cat 1 I can recall ever seeing. All 12Z trop models, which had it at cat 1 as of 18z, strengthen it to well into cat 2 (90-95 knts) as we head into tonight with a peak near DMAX/6Z. The NHC otoh has it weakening back to 60 knots at 6Z:

"Today's strengthening was the result of the storm passing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, however it will move north of those warmer waters later this evening, and Don has likely peaked in intensity. Weakening should begin overnight, with a faster rate of weakening expected Sunday through Monday as Don moves over even colder waters and the vertical wind shear increases.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 40.1N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 23/1800Z 44.5N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 24/0600Z 46.4N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

48H 24/1800Z 47.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown"

[Hurricane2022]

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1682877719179145217

[Kingarabian]

Could make a run at MH status.

[cycloneye]

Could make a run at MH status.

It may be too late for that?

[cycloneye]

ADT is using a curved band which shouldn't be factored here. Any manual fixes should be doing an eye scene because the system has an eye and the eye is visible and warm on satellite.

Tropical storms don't have eyes.

They corrected the last update at 18z.

TXNT21 KNES 222058
TCSNTL
CCA

A. 05L (DON)

B. 22/1800Z

C. 39.5N

D. 50.1W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY. OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY MG AND
EMBEDDED IN DG RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. MET IS 4.0. PT IS 4.5. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[cycloneye]

00z Update:

TXNT21 KNES 230023
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DON)

B. 23/0000Z

C. 40.7N

D. 49.8W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY OW RESULTING IN
A DT OF 4.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 4.0. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

00z Best Track with no change.

AL, 05, 2023072300, , BEST, 0, 407N, 499W, 65, 988, HU

[Kingarabian]

Could make a run at MH status.

It may be too late for that?

Its eye is open now but at the time of my post all it needed were -65/-70C ish tops around the eye.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

On average, the first hurricane in the Atlantic forms on August 11th and coincides with my birthday.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1682856417592524800

[wxman57]

Could make a run at MH status.

Nope. It's already starting to weaken. Eyewall getting ragged as it heads toward cooler water.

[Jr0d]

... with that much time perhaps it will find a day or two of favorable conditions, surprise us and briefly become the first hurricane of the season(though unlikely)

Posted on the 13th...no one else seemed to agree (what was an invest) and any chance of becoming a hurricane.

Kind of rare for me to weather guess correctly.

[Hurricane2022]

ERC?

[Hurricane Mike]

Impressive for this far north, especially in July.

[MarioProtVI]

ERC?
https://imageshack.com/i/pmK0lINbp

Bro really took it to the extreme

In reality this is the sub-26C SSTs immediately hitting it. Should be down to 55 kt or less by 5 am.

[AC5230]

ERC?
https://imageshack.com/i/pmK0lINbp

Bro really took it to the extreme

In reality this is the sub-26C SSTs immediately hitting it. Should be down to 55 kt or less by 5 am.

Looks like 55 kt was on the money for this adv. Looked like the fastest EWRC of all time though that's for sure

[aspen]

Don has been quite the surprisingly impressive July system, after two consecutive seasons with zero activity after early July. It’ll likely finish with about 7 ACE. IMO, it probably peaked at 75 kt and was a hurricane for longer, so its actual ACE total could be around 8-9 after post-season revisions.