2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the 12z GFS has this new end-ofJuly system as a classic Cape Verde system where it becomes a depression near the Cape Verde Islands and treks westward

[Cpv17]

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.

Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

8/20 ding ding ding!

Typically, yes.

This year, no.

If we’re to get to the numbers forecasted then we’ll need the real season to come well before that date. This isn’t your typical year.

[chaser1]

You can see the wave the models are picking up on in this loop. Nice broad rotation/spin around 13N 8W with convection slightly sheared to the west side:

https://i.postimg.cc/0QZf9LVV/goes16-vis-swir-eatl.gif

It does look formidable plus it'll have a healthy inflow from a moist ITCZ already beginning to bow northward along the African coast in response to the deep SW flow ahead of the approaching wave. I think it could be a candidate for a relative quick spin up following "splash-down".

[WeatherBoy2000]

Looks like the 12z GFS has this new end-ofJuly system as a classic Cape Verde system where it becomes a depression near the Cape Verde Islands and treks westward

The GFS showed something like this happening with 95l at this stage and that didn't verify. Although nothing should be taken literally, the fact that models are beginning to develop waves along with an invest might be a sign that the Atlantic is waking up. Surely beats last year and even 2021.

[SFLcane]

12z Gfs again with a strengthening hurricane going into the sw Atlantic. Long range forecast so we will see what happens

[cycloneye]

There is the culprit as gatorcane said.

[tolakram]

The models show trends. I know it's hard not to game them, but the GFS spinning something up to a hurricane IS meaningless. The GFS and the euro both showing a vorticity in the same area, regardless of strength, is a decent signal. I doubt both of them this far out, but both the GFS and Euro show the vorticity moving over or just north of the islands at 180+ hours. If a storm is going to be of any significant intensity that's the route it's going to have to take in my opinion.

Still too far out to have any confidence.

[Spacecoast]

12z GFS: East of 6z run

[gatorcane]

The models show trends. I know it's hard not to game them, but the GFS spinning something up to a hurricane IS meaningless. The GFS and the euro both showing a vorticity in the same area, regardless of strength, is a decent signal. I doubt both of them this far out, but both the GFS and Euro show the vorticity moving over or just north of the islands at 180+ hours. If a storm is going to be of any significant intensity that's the route it's going to have to take in my opinion.

Still too far out to have any confidence.

Agree with this. The route for development would be if it were to move near or north of the islands. One thing I notice looking at the Euro, GFS, and CMC is that they all move the TUTT near the islands off to the northeast and build in a large anticyclone over this wave just north of the islands around around 180 hours from now. The CMC still fails to develop the wave despite this favorable upper-level environment.

12Z CMC showing anticyclone flow just NE of islands which would be favorable:

[SFLcane]

There is the culprit as gatorcane said.

https://i.imgur.com/HdgVJB4.gif

That sounds about right. One to watch

[toad strangler]

Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

8/20 ding ding ding!

Typically, yes.

This year, no.

If we’re to get to the numbers forecasted then we’ll need the real season to come well before that date. This isn’t your typical year.

Not in agreement with this sentiment. There have been big canes in strong El Niño years. It’s not a forgone conclusion that this Nino shuts down the Atlantic. Plus, it only take one. I’m not a numbers guy. I typically disregard storm total numbers. Total ACE included. Means nothing to those who might get that one.

[USTropics]

The primary wave axis for the feature the GFS has been developing is along 10-12E currently:


It's a bit easier to track by following the changes of the wind barbs at 700mb:


It shows up well on the GFS simulated satellite:

[Cpv17]

8/20 ding ding ding!

Typically, yes.

This year, no.

If we’re to get to the numbers forecasted then we’ll need the real season to come well before that date. This isn’t your typical year.

Not in agreement with this sentiment. There have been big canes in strong El Niño years. It’s not a forgone conclusion that this Nino shuts down the Atlantic. Plus, it only take one. I’m not a numbers guy. I typically disregard storm total numbers. Total ACE included. Means nothing to those who might get that one.

It’s a good bet storms will get going before the 20th this year. It’s been a wacky year. There’s been plenty of talk about this being a front-loaded season. I’m not a numbers guy either. I couldn’t care less about ACE. I’m only interested in storms that impact land. I have zero interest in fish storms.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

The primary wave axis for the feature the GFS has been developing is along 10-12E currently:
https://i.imgur.com/ZYoOXsT.png

It's a bit easier to track by following the changes of the wind barbs at 700mb:
https://i.postimg.cc/G2rzVTCY/gifmaker-me.gif

It shows up well on the GFS simulated satellite:
https://i.postimg.cc/5t8nsqZb/gfs-ir-nafr-fh1-115.gif

Oh boy, I and our friend gatorcane identified the wrong one.

[Cpv17]

https://i.postimg.cc/R0j99Y8r/IMG-7329.gif

It’s common to show recurves early and they adjust back west with time.

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS… After NE Caribbean, a wide range of possibilities, Central GOM to offshore CONUS…

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Gmh433Xn/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh174-384.gif [/url]

12z GEFS… After NE Caribbean, a wide range of possibilities, Central GOM to offshore CONUS…

There’s even some BOC action there.

[gatorcane]

The primary wave axis for the feature the GFS has been developing is along 10-12E currently:
https://i.imgur.com/ZYoOXsT.png

It's a bit easier to track by following the changes of the wind barbs at 700mb.

https://i.postimg.cc/G2rzVTCY/gifmaker-me.gif

It shows up well on the GFS simulated satellite:
https://i.postimg.cc/5t8nsqZb/gfs-ir-nafr-fh1-115.gif

Oh boy, I and our friend gatorcane identified the wrong one.

Looking at the 12Z Euro 700MB animation, it appears to be the area I had pointed out at around 13N 8W.

[Blown Away]

The primary wave axis for the feature the GFS has been developing is along 10-12E currently:
https://i.imgur.com/ZYoOXsT.png

It's a bit easier to track by following the changes of the wind barbs at 700mb.

https://i.postimg.cc/G2rzVTCY/gifmaker-me.gif

It shows up well on the GFS simulated satellite:
https://i.postimg.cc/5t8nsqZb/gfs-ir-nafr-fh1-115.gif

Oh boy, I and our friend gatorcane identified the wrong one.

Looking at the 12Z Euro 700MB animation, it appears to be the area I had pointed out at around 13N 8W.

https://i.postimg.cc/W3fpwNNR/ecmwf-z700-vort-nafr-fh0-102.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/0QZf9LVV/goes16-vis-swir-eatl.gif

About 3 days until it splashes in the Atlantic and about 5 days before it shows as a low in the GFS.