2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[jlauderdal]

12z GEFS… After NE Caribbean, a wide range of possibilities, Central GOM to offshore CONUS…

I like how florida avoids both solutions.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1683215968711987202



 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1683216056049971203



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1683237233996750849

[LarryWx]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Gmh433Xn/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh174-384.gif [/url]

12z GEFS… After NE Caribbean, a wide range of possibilities, Central GOM to offshore CONUS…

I like how florida avoids both solutions.

0Z GEFS for the AEW about to move offshore looks like the most active run yet with 10 Hs out of 31 members by my count!

[Jr0d]

Ilike how florida avoids both solutions.

Those are the ones that worry me. Generally if Florida is the bullseye early on, something will result in a miss.

As I posted in the invest thread, I want nothing to do with a vigorous wave that finds the hot water around South Florida.

Fortunately the current invest should stay south, so far the models are recurving the next wave east of Florida. The issue I see is a weak system tends to go further west.

[jconsor]

Need to watch for possible development near the SE US coast late this week into this weekend.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683452241192026112




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683455653371686913




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683459114452545536

[jconsor]

Thread about the next potential MDR/central Atlantic system. Of course it's very early and the system isn't expected to form for another 5-7 days, but I though it's worth discussing potential track. I'm not so sure this will form as early as ensembles imply. Given the indications of a weakening E US trough/building W Atl ridge first week of Aug, this could work against a clean recurve out to sea.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683469547716636675




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683470048130740224

[jlauderdal]

Thread about the next potential MDR/central Atlantic system. Of course it's very early and the system isn't expected to form for another 5-7 days, but I though it's worth discussing potential track. I'm not so sure this will form as early as ensembles imply. Given the indications of a weakening E US trough/building W Atl ridge first week of Aug, this could work against a clean recurve out to sea.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683469547716636675

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683470048130740224

The July lull is about over and it will be busy the rest of the way. Start your generators now and make sure you are ready, this is the time.

[OuterBanker]

GFS is on some serious drugs.

06z today https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 406&fh=318

Yesterday 12z https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=342

[Teban54]

0z EPS quite active with both the MDR wave and the subtropical system:


6z GEFS also maintains the active signal from 0z:

[LarryWx]

The 12Z ICON is similar to the runs from 12 and 24 hours prior with a weak low NE of the LAs and in a position when considering the incoming weakness to just off the CONUS east coast that suggests that a recurve east of the CONUS would be favored if it were to develop. But that's still 7 days out and thus could change.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC has a similar recurve well E of the US. OTOH, the 12Z GFS has a weak low that tracks further SW and would be in a much more threatening position to the CONUS in early August should it subsequently develop.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS…

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS…

The gfs with the required sofla strike

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/V6trqjfn/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh162-270.gif [/url]

12z GFS…

Downstream typhoon effects...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683527376070922240

@AndyHazelton
The next wave moving into the Atlantic will definitely have a large-scale setup that suggests it should develop at some point. Favorable CCKW interaction, large anticyclone overhead, solid moisture field. As we saw with #95L though, sustained convection will be important.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS has an impressive/worrisome 11 Hs out of 31 members from the AEW now near the African coast. That's the most I've counted as the 0Z GEFS had 10 by my count. So far in the run, one hits the US (FL E coast) with more possible as the run goes further.

Update further in run: so far 3 H hit US (2 FL, 1 NC).

[SFLcane]

12Z GEFS has an impressive/worrisome 11 Hs out of 31 members from the AEW now near the African coast. That's the most I've counted as the 0Z GEFS had 10 by my count. So far in the run, one hits the US (FL E coast) with more possible as the run goes further.

Update further in run: so far 3 H hit US (2 FL, 1 NC).

Furthest west the GEFS has been.

[Blown Away]

12Z GEFS has an impressive/worrisome 11 Hs out of 31 members from the AEW now near the African coast. That's the most I've counted as the 0Z GEFS had 10 by my count. So far in the run, one hits the US (FL E coast) with more possible as the run goes further.

Update further in run: so far 3 H hit US (2 FL, 1 NC).

Furthest west the GEFS has been.

Very active 12z GEFS, GOM to OTS…

[SFLcane]

12Z GEFS has an impressive/worrisome 11 Hs out of 31 members from the AEW now near the African coast. That's the most I've counted as the 0Z GEFS had 10 by my count. So far in the run, one hits the US (FL E coast) with more possible as the run goes further.

Update further in run: so far 3 H hit US (2 FL, 1 NC).

Furthest west the GEFS has been.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/15hyRSs3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh156-342.gif [/url]

Very active 12z GEFS, GOM to OTS…

Most still recurve near Bermuda.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF says there is nothing to see here. CMC did jump onboard so well see