WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

Super...

05W DOKSURI 230724 1800 17.0N 125.1E WPAC 130 926

[cycloneye]

Super...

05W DOKSURI 230724 1800 17.0N 125.1E WPAC 130 926

The second of the season after Mawar.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1683561537523548161

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 125.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 277 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS
EVIDENCED BY A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 30-NM EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL AND SURROUNDED BY A NEAR-PERFECT CIRCULAR EYEWALL WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS AT -77 CELSIUS. THE MOAT OF DRY AIR HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE EYEWALL, AN INDICATION OF IMMINENT EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 241709Z AMSR2
36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED ON THE
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG DUAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA EXTRAPOLATION.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 241730Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 127 KTS AT 241800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING STR INTO THE LUZON AND
TAIWAN STRAITS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA, JUST
AFTER TAU 72. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 135KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, AN
EWRC WILL INITIALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND
TAIWAN. BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 70KTS BY TAU 72.
AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING
VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
120 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 162NM WITH GFS ON THE
RIGHT MARGIN AND NVGM AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER, RECENT TROCHOIDAL MOTION MAY CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM
LENDING ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW IN SLIGHT FAVOR TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LAND TRACK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1683625900796186626

[ElectricStorm]

Eye is getting pretty ragged. Wonder if there's some type of ERC or eyewall meld going on.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Remains at 130kt.

05W DOKSURI 230725 0000 17.7N 124.6E WPAC 130 926

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/Carl225126302/status/1683634793303646208



Likely peaked as a C5 STY earlier.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.7N 124.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 279 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE AND VERY
INTENSE SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A MOAT OF DRY AIR HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED THE EYEWALL, AN INDICATION OF IMMINENT EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, FOR NOW, WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG DUAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 242330Z
CIMSS DPRINT: 131 KTS AT 25000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING STR INTO THE LUZON AND
TAIWAN STRAITS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA, JUST
AFTER TAU 72. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AS AN EWRC WILL NOW WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON AND TAIWAN. BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY
TAU 72. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND
INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 120 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 184NM WITH GFS ON THE RIGHT
MARGIN AND NVGM AND EEMN ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER, RECENT TROCHOIDAL MOTION MAY CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM
LENDING ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW IN SLIGHT FAVOR OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THAT SPREADS OUT TO 323NM DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LAND TRACK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Experiencing ~50 km/h sustained, close to TS-force gusts in Metro Cebu but no rain. Some fallen heavy objects here at my office. Pretty surprising

[Hayabusa]

Pressure dropping on Aparri synoptic station 988.8mb wind speed 27kts gusts 46kts @10Z

98232 41558 83214 10268 20263 39885 49888 5//// 76366 8452/ 222// 20505 333 56790 84620 88357=QNT 24 MPS TP/AP/KV

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.4N 123.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 276 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES LAND INTERACTION WITH
NORTHEAST LUZON. RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH FEEDS INTO A MIDLATITUDE
UPPER LOW OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, BOLSTERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 250600Z
HIMAWARI-9 IRDBE IMAGERY WITH A VERY DISCERNABLE EYE (30NM
DIAMETER). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS
CIMSS SATCON AND ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS
DEMS: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 124 KTS AT 250430Z
CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 250530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A POOL
OF HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SIGNIFICANT RADIAL OUTFLOW WILL
OFFSET LAND INTERACTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THEREFORE FORECAST
INTENSITIES WERE HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE JTWC INTENSITY
CONSENSUS (ICNW). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN
POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 72 ALONG
SOUTHEAST MAINLAND CHINA, AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO FORECASTED TRACK SPEED THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM
AGREEMENT IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD (185NM) AT TIME OF LANDFALL. GFS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE AIDS ENVELOPE; ANALYSIS OF THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS INDICATE THE
MODEL IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED
NEAR THE JTWC CONSENSUS (CONW) WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

[doomhaMwx]

977.7 mb from PAGASA's AWS in Santa Ana as of 12:15Z. This is the station pressure but very close to sea level.

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1683808649452601345

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1683820773050404866

[Hayabusa]

15z Aparri 980.1mb winds 38 kts gusts 54 kts

98232 21558 82720 10272 20261 39798 49801 56061 76162 8452/ 333 56690 60127 84620 88457=QNT 28MPS KV

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.9N 122.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 276 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING
CLOUD TOPS OVER DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SHOWING FRAGMENTATION. A
250837Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH A COMPLETE INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE ALLUDING
THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) HAS COMMENCED; THE CIMSS MPERC
PRODUCT SHOWS ERC ONSET PROBABILITIES PEAKED NEAR 50 PERCENT AT
250300Z SUGGESTING AN ERC IS IMMINENT. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AT BASCO
RADAR SITE (98134), 120NM NNW OF THE SYSTEM, REPORTED A PEAK OF 58KTS
SUSTAINED AT 251300Z, WITH CALAYAN (98133), WHICH WAS DIRECTLY IN THE
FORECASTED TRACK, CEASING REPORTS AT 251000Z. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 251200Z HIMAWARI9 IRDBE IMAGE
WITH A VERY DISCERNABLE EYE (25NM DIAMETER). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS CIMSS SATCON AND ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
A 251000Z RCM3 SAR IMAGE REVEALED A VMAX OF 111 KNOTS, HOWEVER,
INCIDENCE ANGLES WERE HIGH (49-50 DEGREES) ALLUDING TO POSSIBLE
UNDERESTIMATION OF THE VMAX.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 126 KTS AT 251103Z
CIMSS ADT: 119 KTS AT 251130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET LAND
INTERACTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE HELD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW). AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60 ALONG SOUTHEAST MAINLAND CHINA,
AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO FORECASTED TRACK SPEED THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM
AGREEMENT IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD (140NM) AT TIME OF LANDFALL. GFS
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE; ANALYSIS OF THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS
INDICATE THE MODEL IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED NEAR THE JTWC CONSENSUS (CONW) WITH THE BULK OF
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN