2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/V6trqjfn/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh162-270.gif [/url]

12z GFS…

Downstream typhoon effects...

https://i.postimg.cc/RZwwK2jt/gfs.png

That's some heavy duty ridging. With that orientation and those 597 heights, it's easy to see the potential risk for the Atlantic seaboard. The next anticipated wave off Africa may be a bit too quick across the pond to get trapped westward. Perhaps that's why CMC & ICON has the reflection gaining latitude and recurving from the get-go. As is the case every year - timing is everything.

[LarryWx]

Furthest west the GEFS has been.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/15hyRSs3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh156-342.gif [/url]

Very active 12z GEFS, GOM to OTS…

Most still recurve near Bermuda.

Adrian,
This is how I would describe it. Of the 22% (11) with hurricanes, the tracks are fairly evenly distributed from just E of Bermuda to the SE US since 3 of 11 hit SE US and a 4th only barely stays offshore.

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/15hyRSs3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh156-342.gif [/url]

Very active 12z GEFS, GOM to OTS…

Most still recurve near Bermuda.

Adrian,
This is how I would describe it. Of the 22% (11) with hurricanes, the tracks are fairly evenly distributed from just E of Bermuda to the SE US since 3 of 11 hit SE US and a 4th only barely stays offshore.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683546702823985152

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS: 34+ Gust probability (from Tomer Burg's site).


!2z EPS shows early curve...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1683560312392368133

[wxman57]

EC, CMC, and ICON all keep it weak and turn it northward before reaching the NE Caribbean. GFS makes it a TS that strikes SE Florida in 10.5 days. Once again, it's the outlier. Don't trust the GFS.

[jlauderdal]

EC, CMC, and ICON all keep it weak and turn it northward before reaching the NE Caribbean. GFS makes it a TS that strikes SE Florida in 10.5 days. Once again, it's the outlier. Don't trust the GFS.

The gfs sending a hurricane to sofla is on par with the hwrf making majors, its expected to happen multiple times a season regardless

[wxman57]

18Z GFS is coming to its senses - just a weak low that dissipates.

[Blown Away]

18Z GFS is coming to its senses - just a weak low that dissipates.

Models into early August with very little activity. Do you think El Niño starts to influence more from September on? When do you think we see these threats to SFL, Central GOM, Yucatán you talked about?

[Kingarabian]

Anything that goes above the islands will be favored to become a TC. Much more than entering the Caribbean.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like season's not canceled after all (I'm talking to you, 00Z GFS )

[REDHurricane]

0z EPS and 6z GEFS showing decently strong signals of development from both the tropical wave currently entering the MDR and (the remnants of?) 95L in the western Caribbean just 5 days out

[wxman57]

0Z GFS just couldn't help itself in developing the wave by Africa into a hurricane off the East U.S. Coast. 06Z GFS is more reasonable - no development or very weak development, as per other models.

[tiger_deF]

12z GFS back on board with development of Emily from our MDR AOI, which starts forming earlier than the past 6 runs on hour 108. Brings it down to a 979 mb hurricane North of the LA at hour 162.

[Woofde]

Starting to get into fantasy territory, but the 12z GFS starts building in a ridge just as it comes near the SE states (Hour 240).

[SFLcane]

Starting to get into fantasy territory, but the 12z GFS starts building in a ridge just as it comes near the SE states (Hour 240).

crazy how it just misses but you cant bet on that.

Uptick on the 12z GEFS

[mantis83]

Starting to get into fantasy territory, but the 12z GFS starts building in a ridge just as it comes near the SE states (Hour 240).

crazy how it just misses bit you cant bet on that.

Uptick on the 12z GEFS


https://i.postimg.cc/zvmSVdmX/gfs.gif

florida force field being tested early.....

[LarryWx]

Starting to get into fantasy territory, but the 12z GFS starts building in a ridge just as it comes near the SE states (Hour 240).

crazy how it just misses bit you cant bet on that.

Uptick on the 12z GEFS


https://i.postimg.cc/zvmSVdmX/gfs.gif

Adrian, thanks for posting this. I agree 100% that you can't count on the miss. But even more, I'm betting wxman57 and others (including you and me) are probably thinking you can't count on the GFS' idea of having a nearby major hurricane that closeby then in the first place. I know you're not but thought I'd get that out of the way. With this setup in the unlikely event that a MH should actually develop, the chances of it recurving that close to the SE US would be low imho.

[toad strangler]

Starting to get into fantasy territory, but the 12z GFS starts building in a ridge just as it comes near the SE states (Hour 240).

crazy how it just misses bit you cant bet on that.

Uptick on the 12z GEFS


https://i.postimg.cc/zvmSVdmX/gfs.gif

That's a climo super highway track if I ever saw one!