2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[JetFuel_SE]

GFS doing drugs again.

[cycloneye]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/V6trqjfn/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh162-270.gif [/url]

12z GFS…

Downstream typhoon effects...

https://i.postimg.cc/RZwwK2jt/gfs.png

Apart from actual Typhoon Doksuri, 91W will also be a very strong Typhoon that for sure will cause long term effects downstream with the ridges and troughs.

[SFLcane]

Starting to get into fantasy territory, but the 12z GFS starts building in a ridge just as it comes near the SE states (Hour 240).

crazy how it just misses bit you cant bet on that.

Uptick on the 12z GEFS


https://i.postimg.cc/zvmSVdmX/gfs.gif

Adrian, thanks for posting this. I agree 100% that you can't count on the miss. But even more, I'm betting wxman57 and others (including you and me) are probably thinking you can't count on the GFS' idea of having a nearby major hurricane that closeby then in the first place. I know you're not but thought I'd get that out of the way. With this setup in the unlikely event that a MH should actually develop, the chances of it recurving that close to the SE US would be low imho.

GEFS certainly does not agree with op currently showing an easy recurve in the open Atlantic.

[wxman57]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/736018608366551111/1133445339056177152/d483baaa-8b45-415c-8c09-11f2b26f088f.gif
GFS doing drugs again.

That is my conclusion, too.

[jlauderdal]

crazy how it just misses bit you cant bet on that.

Uptick on the 12z GEFS


https://i.postimg.cc/zvmSVdmX/gfs.gif

Adrian, thanks for posting this. I agree 100% that you can't count on the miss. But even more, I'm betting wxman57 and others (including you and me) are probably thinking you can't count on the GFS' idea of having a nearby major hurricane that closeby then in the first place. I know you're not but thought I'd get that out of the way. With this setup in the unlikely event that a MH should actually develop, the chances of it recurving that close to the SE US would be low imho.

GEFS certainly does not agree with op currently showing an easy recurve in the open Atlantic.

Another lemon has been born.

[cycloneye]

Ok peeps. The model runs for wave south of CV with lemon, will be posted at the new thread.

[SouthFLTropics]

Starting to get into fantasy territory, but the 12z GFS starts building in a ridge just as it comes near the SE states (Hour 240).

crazy how it just misses bit you cant bet on that.

Uptick on the 12z GEFS


https://i.postimg.cc/zvmSVdmX/gfs.gif

florida force field being tested early.....

[JetFuel_SE]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/736018608366551111/1133445339056177152/d483baaa-8b45-415c-8c09-11f2b26f088f.gif
GFS doing drugs again.

That is my conclusion, too.

No matter the setup, it always is.

[jconsor]

I know the focus of most folks is on the E. Atlantic wave, but meanwhile don't sleep on 95L.  It looks highly sheared and convectively anemic at the present time, but could gain renewed energy in the W. Caribbean.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684132821785522177




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684135318054895617




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684137135501111296

[Steve]

I'm not following the wave near the CVI, but the GFS has been the leader on that. It also telegraphed numerous gulf systems that never materialized in the beginning of the season, so maybe it's got a better handle on the summer and isn't feeding back as much anymore. CMC has jumped aboard. Looks to go up around 62W on the GFS and intensifies it between 25-33(+/-) North. CMC gets it a little farther west (maybe 65W or so) on the way up. Looks pretty much like what many have suggested (including me) that this might be a large part of this year's named storm activity - in the Atlantic. I think the mainland will see a few threats, but I feel like that will be the exception in what seems like it's going to be an east-biased season. If this becomes the E storm, we will only have had unnamed January and brief Arlene past 85W. Models go a little quiet for the second week of August as noted in indicators thread, so it might be another 3 weeks before we see anything else in the Atlantic if the current disturbance becomes Emily. We should get an update from BOMA/BOMM tomorrow on MJO prediction and whether the Australian model will telegraph anything for later in the month.

[BobHarlem]

For the last 3 runs (6z 12z 18z) the GFS has shown something near the Bahamas developing around Aug 7-8. 12z has it move into Florida 6Z into the Gulf 18z between the Bahamas and Florida developing from the second of two "waves" behind 96L.

[Ianswfl]

18z gefs ensembles end of the run has a long track hurricane heading towards the Bahamas with a strong ridge in place. If that ridge holds that's a perfect set up for a Florida strike possible. Long range cfs suggest ridging in place in aug possibly.

[Blown Away]

Models showing little to nothing through first half of August… GEFS in the 10-16 day range shows a possible system…

[Category5Kaiju]

Models showing little to nothing through first half of August… GEFS in the 10-16 day range shows a possible system…

I think it might have been Danny Morris on wx Twitter who showed it, but models seem to think that the first half of August will be quiet given a suppressive CCKW over the Atlantic during then, but the second half of August may very well be a different story. We'll wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Models showing little to nothing through first half of August… GEFS in the 10-16 day range shows a possible system…

I think it might have been Danny Morris on wx Twitter who showed it, but models seem to think that the first half of August will be quiet given a suppressive CCKW over the Atlantic during then, but the second half of August may very well be a different story. We'll wait and see.

Also, EPAC will be active with two or three systems in the next 2 weeks.

[LarryWx]

Models showing little to nothing through first half of August… GEFS in the 10-16 day range shows a possible system…

I think it might have been Danny Morris on wx Twitter who showed it, but models seem to think that the first half of August will be quiet given a suppressive CCKW over the Atlantic during then, but the second half of August may very well be a different story. We'll wait and see.

Not that the CFS is a reliable model and not that any model looking more than two weeks out is the least bit reliable, but fwiw:
The 0Z CFS has 4 MDR closed sfc lows just between 8/16 and 8/29! It doesn't get much more active than that in the MDR.

CFS runs fwiw have been suggesting active 2nd half of August in MDR.

[Category5Kaiju]

Models showing little to nothing through first half of August… GEFS in the 10-16 day range shows a possible system…

I think it might have been Danny Morris on wx Twitter who showed it, but models seem to think that the first half of August will be quiet given a suppressive CCKW over the Atlantic during then, but the second half of August may very well be a different story. We'll wait and see.

Not that the CFS is a reliable model and not that any model looking more than two weeks out is the least bit reliable, but fwiw:
The 0Z CFS has 4 MDR closed sfc lows just between 8/16 and 8/29! It doesn't get much more active than that in the MDR.

CFS runs fwiw have been suggesting active 2nd half of August in MDR.

I think that's a pretty good overall indication that the CFS sees the basin becoming much more favorable in August. I think it's important to not look at individual storms on that model but rather generally how it behaves.

[Kingarabian]

CMC has some BOC action, a robust wave going north of the islands and a weak MDR TC in the next 10 days.

[cycloneye]

This is very long range, from August 13th thru the 15th in the Bahamas moving thru the Keys into EGOM.

[lsuhurricane]

Latest GFS (12z) in fantasyland range is modeling a similar setup to the Euro Ensembles.





Second full week in August looks to be active.