MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/WRN MO/ERN KS/NERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 171242Z - 171515Z
BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS
ERN KS AND SWRN IA THIS MORNING. A FEW CELLS WITHIN THE BAND HAVE
INCREASED TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH A COUPLE REPORTS OF HAIL FROM KS.
THE AREA EAST OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND MASS INFLOW ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM OUN
AND TOP ALSO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE FOR
UPDRAFTS ROOTED AOA 850MB. CONVECTION SHOULD AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND HAIL PRODUCTION. SMALL LINES OF MORE
INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TENDENCY TO ORIENT PERPENDICULAR
TO THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS GREATER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
..CARBIN.. 11/17/2003
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
