Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)
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- wxman57
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
wxman57 wrote:All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...
There could be US impact from Storm Surge flooding if the GFS verifies even if there is no direct impact.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
I think the E. Atlantic system has a decent chance for development (I would say 50-60% within 7 days). Don't be fooled by recency bias just because 95L encounted hostile conditions and didn't develop. The atmospheric state has changed substantially in a way that favors development more for this wave than it did for 95L.
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684209439560065024
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684214808713854978
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684216357624111106
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684222588279480322
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684224928583761920
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684209439560065024
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684214808713854978
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684216357624111106
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684222588279480322
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684224928583761920
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
The 12Z CMC is by far its strongest run yet with an H to the E of Bermuda. This would make 2 storms for July, which would make it above average for all seasons and the 2nd most active July for any El Niño season since 1982.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
wxman57 wrote:All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...
Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below
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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
gatorcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...
Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below
https://i.postimg.cc/9QHvFbM1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-24.png
Huge December like trof..
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
wxman57 wrote:All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...
CMC now develops it.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Kingarabian wrote:wxman57 wrote:All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...
CMC now develops it.
I expect a TWO later today and possibly as early as the one soon to be released to be upgraded from lemon to orange for the 7 day.
Based on the GFS/CMC, this would be a July TCG and would make two NS this month. I just checked El Niño seasons even further back than 1982. If this month reaches two storms, it would tie it with 1979, 1887, and 1864 for the 2nd highest # of July storms during the 54 El Niño seasons since 1851 either then present or coming later that season. Only 1997 would be more active with its three storms that formed in July.
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- Spacecoast
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
gatorcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...
Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below
https://i.postimg.cc/9QHvFbM1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-24.png
12z GEFS trough prob....
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
2 PM TWO:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles to the
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week and
into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles to the
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week and
into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Spacecoast wrote:gatorcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:All models indicate a deep 500mb trof off the east coast next week. Such a pattern is NOT favorable for any U.S. impact from this wave. It's heading north and out to sea, most likely as a wave or weak low. Don't believe the GFS...
Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below
https://i.postimg.cc/9QHvFbM1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-24.png
12z GEFS trough prob....
https://i.ibb.co/ZW1VPVF/ed28.jpg
Nice plot. Essentially a 50% chance of a trough.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
The 12Z Euro is by a good margin (a TD it appears) the strongest with this of any of its runs to date. It is also E of Bermuda.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is by a good margin (a TD it appears) the strongest with this of any of its runs to date. It is also E of Bermuda.
Good News on the troughing, its been dominant this season so far. The ridge is building back in the next few days in Florida which has been rare this rainy season.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
jlauderdal wrote:LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is by a good margin (a TD it appears) the strongest with this of any of its runs to date. It is also E of Bermuda.
Good News on the troughing, its been dominant this season so far. The ridge is building back in the next few days in Florida which has been rare this rainy season.
Better not be any hurricanes around if not we are going to have some problems.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
I would say development chances are above 50%.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Kingarabian wrote:Spacecoast wrote:gatorcane wrote:
Yep even if it stays weak, the strong trough would turn it out to sea. Maybe a Bermuda threat. GFS 500MB below
https://i.postimg.cc/9QHvFbM1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-24.png
12z GEFS trough prob....
https://i.ibb.co/ZW1VPVF/ed28.jpg
Nice plot. Essentially a 50% chance of a trough.
50% as far south as North Carolina.
Unless there is a hurricane north of the Bahamas in which case any short wave might dig.
And since as you noted the chance of development is only about 50%..
Will be an interesting week since there is more moisture projected to be in place along the track.
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- Blown Away
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
18z GFS, turns NE @25N/60W. Pretty aggressive turn to NE at that low latitude.
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