2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[SFLcane]

So should we cancel the season? That’s is an Impossible call to make in my opinion in late July. Things can change and unfortunately as stated by wxman57 there will be times when storms will not turn. Taking a peak at the long range gfs and cfs.

https://i.postimg.cc/Fz2sGR3r/IMG-7339.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/3wSym3SR/IMG-7340.png

Long-range CFS model through Aug 29th shows mostly weak recurving systems some clipping the NE Caribbean, one gets close to the SE US at the end of the run. Overall pattern looks to be one of recurving storms, quiet Caribbean and Gulf:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

It does show them mainly recurving away from the CONUS or dissipating. However, we know that's what most MDR storms do even in August (say ~75%+) with an even higher % doing that during El Niño. But it does also suggest an active August MDR with four closed surface lows (excluding next week's potential). The lack of strong development may be a bias of the model for all I know.

The one in late August near the SE coast along with the extended 7/27 GEFS that Adrian just posted remind me that late August is the start of the climo most active/dangerous period. So, even if there are three August MDR storms 8/7-8/20 that miss the Caribbean and stay way OTS from the CONUS, which is common anyway, it sometimes takes only one for a bad season. Thus the one shown at the end of the CFS in the Caribbean and then near the SE US would be enough to potentially make August, alone, a bad month if something akin to that were to actually occur. August wouldn't be remembered as a quiet month due to the first three if there's a bad one late. And that's not even considering what Sep and Oct might have in store!

Ridge builds just in time for capeverde season.

We shall see

[Spacecoast]

7/28 Extended weekly :
TD's are anomalously higher % N of islands, Bahamas, and SFl..

TStorm tracks:non-anomalous.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1685389438401101824



Interesting.

[Kingarabian]

That is the control which is singular forecast. I would use the mean of the EPS to judge the concentration of sinking or rising motion over an area.

[SFLcane]

Mark makes a good point we’re is the supposed windshear blowing from the epac into the Caribbean. 95L almost developed just ran into CA.



I mean shear should be blowing the tops of 95L

[crownweather]

Interesting statistic I found on the wettest Julys on record in Boston & what the rest of the hurricane season was like in terms of big hurricane landfalls.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1685597284229103616

[SFLcane]

Mark makes a good point we’re is the supposed windshear blowing from the epac into the Caribbean. 95L almost developed just ran into CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/5y4sq4sH/IMG-1316.gif

I mean shear should be blowing the tops of 95L

https://i.postimg.cc/Fsfytkkr/IMG-1317.jpg

Atlantic epac crossover during a strengthening El Niño? Ah yea no something is just a tad off.

[GCANE]

Keeping an eye on the area north of Puerto Rico around 8/2 to 8/4.
Nothing on the models right now, but its a good setup if convection fires up.
High CAPE, low trades, ARWB
If pop ups fire over PR or Hispaniola and drift north, could spark something.

[SFLcane]

Those claiming we’re are the tc’s why is the Atlantic full of sinking dry air well it’s July 30th lol most of this in my opinion is just climo I would certainly wait another 25/30 days things can change pretty quick. We do this every year

Does this look to you like a sheared satellite were you typical have screaming shear going into the Caribbean tearing the tops of anything that tries to get going?

[NDG]

I'm going to wait if the Atlantic responds to the CCKWs and MJO that are forecasted to come across the Basin during the month of August before saying that the high ACE forecasts are going to bust big time, shear during July across the Caribbean and Atlantic MDR has not been that bad compared to the recent EL Ninos.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1685608455908757504

[LarryWx]

Does this look to you like a sheared satellite were you typical have screaming shear going into the Caribbean tearing the tops of anything that tries to get going?

https://i.postimg.cc/fTjmDpQ8/IMG-7355.gif

No, so far the "screaming shear" into the Caribbean common characteristic of moderate+ El Niños has not at all been dominant imho although that could always change later.

[LarryWx]

There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms with TCG in July in El Niño.

[Landy]

There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms with TCG in July at least in El Niño. I'll have to see if any other season had 4+. Anyone happen to know about non-El Nino record for NS with TCG in July?

2020 had 5 which seems pretty hard to beat.

[Category5Kaiju]

The fact that we have a non-zero chance of seeing 2 more NSs form within the upcoming week for a total of 7 total nameable storms in the basin so far by early August....that's quite impressive, especially for a year that is expected to be at least a moderate El Nino later on. For a bit of context, at least since 1995:

- 2015 had 11 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2014 had 8 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2009 had 9 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2006 had 10 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2002 had 12 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 1997 had 8 storms form throughout the entire season.

Assuming there is no major period of silence going forward, we're on track to easily beat those years in total NS count.

[LarryWx]

There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms with TCG in July at least in El Niño. I'll have to see if any other season had 4+. Anyone happen to know about non-El Nino record for NS with TCG in July?

2020 had 5 which seems pretty hard to beat.

Thank you. I also just saw that 2005 had five. But regarding just El Niño seasons, the record high number of July TCGs that became NSs for the last 50+ El Niño seasons is definitely three set in 1997.

[LarryWx]

The fact that we have a non-zero chance of seeing 2 more NSs form within the upcoming week for a total of 7 total nameable storms in the basin so far by early August....that's quite impressive, especially for a year that is expected to be at least a moderate El Nino later on. For a bit of context, at least since 1995:

- 2015 had 11 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2014 had 8 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2009 had 9 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2006 had 10 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2002 had 12 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 1997 had 8 storms form throughout the entire season.

Assuming there is no major period of silence going forward, we're on track to easily beat those years in total NS count.

And there's ample evidence that we've already been in a lower end moderate El Niño this month (~+1.1 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly averaged out this month per OISST) though they're normally officially declared retroactivity via ONI. But the July SOI has been pretty meager at -3 to -4.

[LarryWx]

There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms with TCG in July in El Niño.

And arguably, the 12Z Euro at least gets close to step one, the two TDs by tomorrow evening.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The fact that we have a non-zero chance of seeing 2 more NSs form within the upcoming week for a total of 7 total nameable storms in the basin so far by early August....that's quite impressive, especially for a year that is expected to be at least a moderate El Nino later on. For a bit of context, at least since 1995:

- 2015 had 11 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2014 had 8 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2009 had 9 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2006 had 10 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 2002 had 12 storms form throughout the entire season.
- 1997 had 8 storms form throughout the entire season.

Assuming there is no major period of silence going forward, we're on track to easily beat those years in total NS count.

And there's ample evidence that we've already been in a lower end moderate El Niño this month (~+1.1 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly averaged out this month per OISST) though they're normally officially declared retroactivity via ONI. But the July SOI has been pretty meager at -3 to -4.

The SOI was on a real negative streak the last week, but it has come back to the positive range again

[lsuhurricane]

12Z Euro Ensembles showing an eruption of development at the end of its run. Its that time....