2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1685979151197499392

[GCANE]

Keeping an eye on the area north of Puerto Rico around 8/2 to 8/4.
Nothing on the models right now, but its a good setup if convection fires up.
High CAPE, low trades, ARWB
If pop ups fire over PR or Hispaniola and drift north, could spark something.

Looks like ICON has something a little bit north of where I was anticipating, but close.
Seems like it wants to move south though and get under the ARWB.
Something to keep an eye on.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1686341588564250624

[SFLcane]

Could be a longggg 2/3 months if this comes to pass.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1686359126044217345

[aspen]

It’s starting to feel a bit like an El Niño now with how the EPac and Atlantic have been behaving this last week: three invests in a row failed to develop (although 97L never really had much model support), while Dora seems like it could be an over-achiever and possibly a long-tracking major. But it’s only the start of August; once we reach the 15th-20th, we should have a better idea of how the rest of the season will go, and if the El Niño will win out.

[Teban54]

It’s starting to feel a bit like an El Niño now with how the EPac and Atlantic have been behaving this last week: three invests in a row failed to develop (although 97L never really had much model support), while Dora seems like it could be an over-achiever and possibly a long-tracking major. But it’s only the start of August; once we reach the 15th-20th, we should have a better idea of how the rest of the season will go, and if the El Niño will win out.

I think it's important to look at why things didn't develop. 95L and 96L mostly suffered from dry air (typical for July), easterly shear for 95L (El Nino shear is supposed to be westerly), and an upper low for 96L (not exactly characteristic of an El Nino either).

None of these seem to be under the influence of an El Nino, and reflect more of a July climo than anything else. I'm not sure if an average El Nino season even has that many invests with real potential in July, to begin with.

95L also almost developed in the Western Caribbean, and probably would have done so if it didn't run into Central America. That would have been almost unheard of in a typical El Nino year with shear raging across the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1686381044755562497

[LarryWx]

It’s starting to feel a bit like an El Niño now with how the EPac and Atlantic have been behaving this last week: three invests in a row failed to develop (although 97L never really had much model support), while Dora seems like it could be an over-achiever and possibly a long-tracking major. But it’s only the start of August; once we reach the 15th-20th, we should have a better idea of how the rest of the season will go, and if the El Niño will win out.

I'm not sure if an average El Nino season even has that many invests with real potential in July, to begin with.

This is a key point imho. I'll go a step further and say that an average El Niño July very likely doesn't have (the equivalent of) three invests
and an over-performing hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s starting to feel a bit like an El Niño now with how the EPac and Atlantic have been behaving this last week: three invests in a row failed to develop (although 97L never really had much model support), while Dora seems like it could be an over-achiever and possibly a long-tracking major. But it’s only the start of August; once we reach the 15th-20th, we should have a better idea of how the rest of the season will go, and if the El Niño will win out.

I'm not sure if an average El Nino season even has that many invests with real potential in July, to begin with.

This is a key point imho. I'll go a step further and say that an average El Niño July very likely doesn't have (the equivalent of) three invests
and an over-performing hurricane.

It’s also not unusual even in prolific years to have invests fail to develop, especially in the early season

[NDG]

Latest windshear forecast by CanSIPS is not backing down for ASO unlike what it did for this past July.

[Spacecoast]

Today's extended range weekly for last half of August (Trop Storm probabilty)...

[captainbarbossa19]

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

Yep. The models are on cue.

[MetroMike]

Issued Today

[CyclonicFury]

While I do think 2023 will be unusually favorable and active for a Nino year (and shear has been somewhat lower than many significant Ninos, and we've been above average thus far including 2 June MDR systems), I think some of the most bullish forecasts are almost certainly going to bust too high. The UKMET ACE forecast of 215 would be the eighth-highest on record. To get an ACE total that high, the Atlantic would need to produce several long-tracked major hurricanes. Even in a -ENSO year, I think these forecasts would be very difficult to achieve; 2010 is an example of such. 2010 had the warmest MDR on record before this year, and ended up with ~165 ACE despite a strong La Nina in place which didn't even crack the top 10.

The first half of August in the Atlantic does not appear as if it will be all that active; I wouldn't be shocked if Klotzbach's first 2 week forecast calls for below average activity considering the lack of coherent signals at the moment. 2004, the most active Nino season on record in ACE, saw significant activity during the first half of August, including Hurricanes Alex and Charley (both majors). 1969, another Nino year, started to get going in early-mid August as well. I think at the moment, the Atlantic is still at least a couple weeks away from the "lid coming off" in terms of significant activity.

[Teban54]

While I do think 2023 will be unusually favorable and active for a Nino year (and shear has been somewhat lower than many significant Ninos, and we've been above average thus far including 2 June MDR systems), I think some of the most bullish forecasts are almost certainly going to bust too high. The UKMET ACE forecast of 215 would be the eighth-highest on record. To get an ACE total that high, the Atlantic would need to produce several long-tracked major hurricanes. Even in a -ENSO year, I think these forecasts would be very difficult to achieve; 2010 is an example of such. 2010 had the warmest MDR on record before this year, and ended up with ~165 ACE despite a strong La Nina in place which didn't even crack the top 10.

The first half of August in the Atlantic does not appear as if it will be all that active; I wouldn't be shocked if Klotzbach's first 2 week forecast calls for below average activity considering the lack of coherent signals at the moment. 2004, the most active Nino season on record in ACE, saw significant activity during the first half of August, including Hurricanes Alex and Charley (both majors). 1969, another Nino year, started to get going in early-mid August as well. I think at the moment, the Atlantic is still at least a couple weeks away from the "lid coming off" in terms of significant activity.

In recent years, a few Twitter mets have repeatedly talked about the Atlantic being quieter during the August 1-20 period since 2010, especially in terms of quality. In contrast, several seasons before 2010 had notable activity in early and mid August like you mentioned. Even 2009 (El Nino, below average Atlantic) had Bill, the strongest storm of the season, becoming a Cat 4 on August 19.

They seem to think it's due to issues with mid-level dry air that has "plagued" the basin during this specific period in recent years. I'm not sure if it's conservative bias again, or if it's an actual change in pattern and seasonal indicators.

[Category5Kaiju]

While I do think 2023 will be unusually favorable and active for a Nino year (and shear has been somewhat lower than many significant Ninos, and we've been above average thus far including 2 June MDR systems), I think some of the most bullish forecasts are almost certainly going to bust too high. The UKMET ACE forecast of 215 would be the eighth-highest on record. To get an ACE total that high, the Atlantic would need to produce several long-tracked major hurricanes. Even in a -ENSO year, I think these forecasts would be very difficult to achieve; 2010 is an example of such. 2010 had the warmest MDR on record before this year, and ended up with ~165 ACE despite a strong La Nina in place which didn't even crack the top 10.

The first half of August in the Atlantic does not appear as if it will be all that active; I wouldn't be shocked if Klotzbach's first 2 week forecast calls for below average activity considering the lack of coherent signals at the moment. 2004, the most active Nino season on record in ACE, saw significant activity during the first half of August, including Hurricanes Alex and Charley (both majors). 1969, another Nino year, started to get going in early-mid August as well. I think at the moment, the Atlantic is still at least a couple weeks away from the "lid coming off" in terms of significant activity.

In recent years, a few Twitter mets have repeatedly talked about the Atlantic being quieter during the August 1-20 period since 2010, especially in terms of quality. In contrast, several seasons before 2010 had notable activity in early and mid August like you mentioned. Even 2009 (El Nino, below average Atlantic) had Bill, the strongest storm of the season, becoming a Cat 4 on August 19.

They seem to think it's due to issues with mid-level dry air that has "plagued" the basin during this specific period in recent years. I'm not sure if it's conservative bias again, or if it's an actual change in pattern and seasonal indicators.

For the most part, seasons typically do not see major hurricanes before August 20. In that sense, I there might be a bit of a conservative bias. However, the seasons that did (1980, 1983, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2005 as examples) mainly happened before 2010. So...I could see why this viewpoint gained traction. Now it's totally possible that somewhere down the line, there will be a season that does see a major before the August 20 time (yes, I'm not completely ruling out 2023 until we're near August 20 ), but it indeed is an interesting thing to think about regarding how we've gone so long without a season like that. I mean, imagine the wx community craze if an Allen-like storm happens (Category 5 long-tracker in very early August) in the future.

[aspen]

While I do think 2023 will be unusually favorable and active for a Nino year (and shear has been somewhat lower than many significant Ninos, and we've been above average thus far including 2 June MDR systems), I think some of the most bullish forecasts are almost certainly going to bust too high. The UKMET ACE forecast of 215 would be the eighth-highest on record. To get an ACE total that high, the Atlantic would need to produce several long-tracked major hurricanes. Even in a -ENSO year, I think these forecasts would be very difficult to achieve; 2010 is an example of such. 2010 had the warmest MDR on record before this year, and ended up with ~165 ACE despite a strong La Nina in place which didn't even crack the top 10.

The first half of August in the Atlantic does not appear as if it will be all that active; I wouldn't be shocked if Klotzbach's first 2 week forecast calls for below average activity considering the lack of coherent signals at the moment. 2004, the most active Nino season on record in ACE, saw significant activity during the first half of August, including Hurricanes Alex and Charley (both majors). 1969, another Nino year, started to get going in early-mid August as well. I think at the moment, the Atlantic is still at least a couple weeks away from the "lid coming off" in terms of significant activity.

In recent years, a few Twitter mets have repeatedly talked about the Atlantic being quieter during the August 1-20 period since 2010, especially in terms of quality. In contrast, several seasons before 2010 had notable activity in early and mid August like you mentioned. Even 2009 (El Nino, below average Atlantic) had Bill, the strongest storm of the season, becoming a Cat 4 on August 19.

They seem to think it's due to issues with mid-level dry air that has "plagued" the basin during this specific period in recent years. I'm not sure if it's conservative bias again, or if it's an actual change in pattern and seasonal indicators.

Yeah if I’m remembering correctly, 2017 was the last time the Atlantic had any significant activity in the first half of August with Hurricane Franklin. 2021 has TS Fred but it wasn’t that impressive.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1686743156799229952

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1686745567458717696

[toad strangler]

Michael Lowry's latest thoughts ...

Invest 96L’s development odds are dwindling and forecast models are quiet for now, but don’t be fooled by August’s annual trickery.

It happens nearly every year. After months of hurricane season chatter – often about expectations of hurricanes ahead – and coming off the warmest month of the year for most Americans, when August arrives and the hurricanes don’t, people start to ask “so where are the hurricanes?”

To be clear, 2023 has seen its first hurricane – Don, which formed back on July 22nd – and it came nearly 3 weeks before the typical first hurricane formation in the Atlantic. But the only hurricane of 2023 formed in the far reaches of the North Atlantic outside the traditional hurricane alley. With deep Atlantic waters sizzling amid record warmth, is something amiss that we don’t see any hurricanes to start August?

Not at all. Hurricane season often hits quickly. In some very active hurricane seasons like 1998 and 1999, the first hurricanes of the year didn’t form until the third week of August. Even 2017 – one of the most ferocious hurricane seasons in memory peppered with names like Harvey, Irma, and Maria – didn’t observe its first hurricane until August 9th.

So far in 2023 tropical activity has been running above average, with more activity to date than some very busy years like 2010 and 2017. Of course, as we discussed in previous newsletters that’s no guarantee the rest of the season will be above average, but it’s a reminder – like the above average seasonal hurricane forecasts – that there’s plenty working right now in the Atlantic.

Like expecting a big heat wave in early May, don’t expect a run of major hurricanes in early August. As we’ve discussed, the Atlantic usually starts churning up hurricanes in August, but typically doesn’t kick it into high gear until later in the month or early September. Historically, 90% of our Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes haven’t formed until after August 2nd.

For now, the disturbance we’ve been following since it rolled off Africa early last week is curling up into the central Atlantic. Development odds have dwindled over the past few days, and it’ll move harmlessly out to sea as it gets picked up by an approaching cold front.

Otherwise, the Atlantic should stay mostly quiet through the weekend.
© 2023 Michael Lowry