WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving
microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at
1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of
Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the
central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye
signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become
better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have
cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from
TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more
distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this
advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received
this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with
hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center
with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind.

Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just
south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the
north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a
continued south of due west track through the entire forecast
period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the
previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for
this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this
afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest
few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to
clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially
compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt
peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids,
but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface
temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as
easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The
models respond to this less favorable environment by showing
weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast
also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small
size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up
or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence
than the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1686841328062111744



Smol Dora!

[Teban54]

[cycloneye]

Closeup of the eye clearing.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO very west weighted but also expanding. Eye is starting to warm. Sheared Category 4 pinhole inbound?

[Hurricane2022]

[Ntxw]

Very pretty.

[aspen]

Dora reminds me a lot of Erick ‘19. Both were very tiny and compact pinholes, and Dora should also be able to reach Cat 4 intensity. I’m guessing around 115-120 kt before it levels off later tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

Eye has warmed a lot. Dora is easily 100kts likely already on way to cat 4.

[lilbump3000]

Last six hours.

[lilbump3000]

[cycloneye]

5.5.

TXPZ21 KNES 030027
TCSENP

A. 05E (DORA)

B. 03/0000Z

C. 15.3N

D. 116.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN
E# OF 5.0 WITH EADJ +0.5 FOR A DT OF 5.5. EYE HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED
LAST 6 HR. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GOOD ALQDS. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5. FT BASED ON
DT. SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES DUE TO SMALL TC SIZE
LIMITATIONS WITH DVORAK.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[Ntxw]

We knew it would be a problem with dvorak .

[Hurricane2022]

I'm somewhat surprised that NHC still hasn't issued a special advisory for Dora. This is very likely a mid-range C4 now.

[cycloneye]

110kt

EP, 05, 2023080300, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1162W, 110, 956, HU

[lilbump3000]

[Ntxw]

That is a pinhole eye if there ever is one.

[lilbump3000]

Sunset view

[Yellow Evan]

On the brink of T7.0. Pretty classic high end EPAC pinhole with very impressive CDO in terms of symmetry.