2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Just made this GIF Tropical cyclone activity (including genesis).

[Category5Kaiju]

Just made this GIF Tropical cyclone activity (including genesis).

https://i.postimg.cc/pd9SRJx1/ecm.gif

Is there a way you could also show the expected dates regarding that gif? Thanks

[SFLcane]

Just made this GIF Tropical cyclone activity (including genesis).

https://i.postimg.cc/pd9SRJx1/ecm.gif

Is there a way you could also show the expected dates regarding that gif? Thanks

Sure thing 8/6-8/14

[chaser1]

Just made this GIF Tropical cyclone activity (including genesis).

https://i.postimg.cc/pd9SRJx1/ecm.gif

Interesting...... should probably take a look at this mornings vis (or IR) E. Atlantic around 11N and 26W

[wxman57]

https://i.postimg.cc/cLgHF8GW/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh144-336.gif
06z GFS
https://i.postimg.cc/SKtjd7Jm/Lemon.jpg
I think we should be seeing one of these in the MDR today...

Lets see what 57 says

The origin of that GFS hurricane is a wave that's now south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Follow the 850mb vorticity back to today. Satellite imagery indicates a quite strong wave there with good rotation, at least in mid levels. Big question is will it survive and have a shot at developing. Well, I certainly don't believe the GFS' taking a hurricane into south Texas, though many in Texas would welcome a break in the drought. Once again, though, the GFS is completely alone in developing this feature. Beware.

[chaser1]

https://i.postimg.cc/cLgHF8GW/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh144-336.gif
06z GFS
https://i.postimg.cc/SKtjd7Jm/Lemon.jpg
I think we should be seeing one of these in the MDR today...

Lets see what 57 says

The origin of that GFS hurricane is a wave that's now south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Follow the 850mb vorticity back to today. Satellite imagery indicates a quite strong wave there with good rotation, at least in mid levels. Big question is will it survive and have a shot at developing. Well, I certainly don't believe the GFS' taking a hurricane into south Texas, though many in Texas would welcome a break in the drought. Once again, though, the GFS is completely alone in developing this feature. Beware.

http://wxman57.com/images/wave.JPG

Yes, completely alone in "developing" this feature.... however not alone in reflecting the same feature at 850mb. 0Z run from last night showing JMA at 192 hrs., ICON at 174 hr's and CMC at around 186 hrs. all suggestive of some weak low near or on approach to Puerto Rico. Whether fantom or not, model verification doesn't begin with the first run that the GFS depicts a "fairyland 360 hr landfall". Any spurious long-range landfalls projected by GFS is irrelevant right now. More importantly will be model to model run consistency for actual genesis. Actually, even more important than that will be if this particular feature begins to separate from the ITCZ and maintain its identity in the few days to come.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1687101729291251713

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1687132807276228608

[BobHarlem]

12z canadian back at it. Nada on 12z GFS at same timeframe though.


ends up

[SFLcane]

12z canadian back at it. Nada on 12z GFS at same timeframe though.
https://i.imgur.com/6Nszg3T.png

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1687134471412211712

[Blown Away]

12z canadian back at it. Nada on 12z GFS at same timeframe though.
https://i.imgur.com/6Nszg3T.png

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1687134471412211712?s=20

12z GFS... Moves a TW just N of Caribbean over SFL and develops over EGOM...

[SFLcane]

Nothing to see here for now.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven

[tolakram]

There's a vorticity signal in generally the same place from the 3 big models at 198 hours. That's the important point here IMO, no huge outliers yet. Sure the CMC and eventually the GFS make a model storm out of it but that's not the important part. We'll see if this leads to our first big storm of the season or another ripped up wave.

[Jr0d]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1687134471412211712?s=20

Was writing this off as a phantom, despite the CMC being relatively bullish for several runs now. This latest run is concerning as a little further north could result in significant development. Anything coming near the Bahamas, South Florida and the Keys with the bathwater temperatures is troubling. Obviously I got development bias for anything near me. The Euro is also showing the wave make to the SE CONUS.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1687190568361734144

[Woofde]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1687190568361734144

It looks like models believe the very dry air to the north will be entrained into the storm and suppress it.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1687190568361734144

It looks like models believe the very dry air to the north will be entrained into the storm and suppress it.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230803/8074e68785d905e1b6cc12cde8cadabe.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230803/c16a75e77f9c0f7a35f9f59e84253998.gif

hmmmmm, oceanic sand dunes perhaps? Oh that mischievous Uncle Sal.

[SouthFLTropics]

While the GFS is not 100% onboard, I have a fair level of concern about a wave getting past 70 west and then finding better conditions. The waters are boiling over there and if something finds the right conditions the potential is very high. The models are showing some sort of activity, albeit, way too early to know for sure in what form. Definitely bears watching.

[Blown Away]

12z ECENS… Many TS and a few Cat1-2’s.

[SFLcane]

While the GFS is not 100% onboard, I have a fair level of concern about a wave getting past 70 west and then finding better conditions. The waters are boiling over there and if something finds the right conditions the potential is very high. The models are showing some sort of activity, albeit, way too early to know for sure in what form. Definitely bears watching.

Surely this Is the main concern here infact anything developing through the next 2 weeks could end in a threatening position in the SW Atlantic with the Environment looking favorable.