WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

DG eye has returned. Almost OW too. CDO has become much more symmetrical as convection has rotated to the west.

[Yellow Evan]

Ok this is gorgeous.

[Yellow Evan]

Symmetry has drastically improved the last couple hours with the CDO almost a perfect circle. Holding steady at T6.5.

[Ntxw]

About as good as she has looked. I don't see why not grant 120kts. Living up to expectations.

[Kingarabian]

Making a run at 7.0. I would say this is 125kts at least.

[cycloneye]

6.5

TXPZ21 KNES 040024
TCSENP

A. 05E (DORA)

B. 04/0000Z

C. 14.2N

D. 122.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 6.5 AFTER
ADDING 0.5 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET AND PT AGREE AT 6.5 BASED ON
A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[cycloneye]

Up to 120kt.

EP, 05, 2023080400, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1226W, 120, 950, HU

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 202308040000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1420N, 12260W, , 1, 115, 2, 948, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SS, VI, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES18, CSC, T, Raw T is 6.5. Since a D- looks appropriate from 24 h

[Yellow Evan]

CB on the south obscuring the eye.this makes me think it isn’t as strong as advertised tbh.

[aspen]

It’s trying so hard to clear out that eye, but I’m guessing some of the outflow is restricted. If the eye were to fully clear — which I doubt because time is running out before shear picks up — then it’d be an easy 130-140 kt.

[Hurricane2022]

000
WTPZ65 KNHC 040100
TCUEP5

Hurricane Dora Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
300 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

...DORA RE-STRENGTHENING...

Recent satellite images indicate that Dora has re-strengthened more
than anticipated, and the maximum sustained winds are now estimated
to be 140 mph (220 km/h). This increase in intensity will be
reflected in the next forecast issued at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM HST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 122.9W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

[tolakram]

Just before a big burst of convection obscured the eye.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1687253165085745152

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORA EP052023 08/04/23 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 118 114 109 101 96 96 93 90 85 83 78 78 77 78 78
V (KT) LAND 120 120 118 114 109 101 96 96 93 90 85 83 78 78 77 78 78
V (KT) LGEM 120 120 116 110 105 98 93 92 90 88 86 84 80 77 75 71 70
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 10 10 7 5 1 2 6 6 10 8 10 11 16 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 2 4 1 0 1 4 4 1 5 2 4 0 -1 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 94 106 88 90 95 123 131 333 355 297 301 292 308 286 281 263 253
SST (C) 28.1 28.3 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.9 26.7 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 143 137 138 136 135 134 134 133 136 133 136 135 137 138 143
200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 62 63 66 65 69 64 61 56 55 56 63 64 64 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 17 18 16 17 17 19 17 18 16 15 13 13 12 11 11
850 MB ENV VOR 65 85 88 92 104 101 86 89 92 100 97 88 68 59 33 20 19
200 MB DIV 35 21 28 48 38 30 34 1 38 20 -14 -12 -17 -19 -12 -13 24
700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -6 -6 -2 3 -5 -5 -2 0 0 6 8 10 7 13
LAND (KM) 1612 1742 1878 2005 2125 2370 2218 1883 1552 1220 944 765 719 856 1050 1186 1359
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 122.6 124.2 125.8 127.3 128.8 131.8 135.1 138.6 142.1 145.9 149.9 153.7 157.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 19 19 18 17 17 17 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 10 15 9 3 3 3 9 8 3 3 4 2 14 5 15 15 52

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. -37. -40. -41. -43. -44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -4. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -11. -19. -24. -24. -27. -30. -35. -37. -42. -42. -43. -42. -42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.2 122.6

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 646.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.19 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.3% 5.1% 4.3% 2.6% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Now we are talking big ACE producer.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

As noted in the previous advisory, Dora appeared to have completed
an eyewall replacement earlier today, and the small eye warmed
considerably by 0000 UTC, surrounded by a solid ring of deep
convection with cloud tops as cold as -80 to -85 degrees Celsius.
An intense burst of deep convection within the southern eyewall has
recently obscured the eye, but that might be more of a reflection
of the hurricane's small size rather than a significant degradation
of its structure. Subjective Dvorak estimates have increased to
T6.5/127 kt and T6.0/115 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, while
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 120-130 kt. The
initial intensity is conservatively set near the lower end of the
estimates--120 kt--given the recent obscuration of the eye.

Dora's initial motion remains south of due west, or 260/16 kt. A
stronger-than-normal ridge located to the north is forecast to build
westward in tandem with Dora, keeping the hurricane on a general
westward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period. In fact,
much of the track guidance suggests that Dora is likely to lose
latitude for the next 4 days or so. The main forecast difference
compared to the previous advisory is that the guidance is showing a
slower motion in the 2- to 4-day period, and the NHC track forecast
has been slowed down accordingly, trending toward the HCCA consensus
aid.

Despite Dora's recent re-strengthening, the intensity guidance
suggests that the hurricane may begin weakening again during the
next 24-36 hours, likely as a result of some increase in shear and
water temperatures cooling to near 27C. By 36-48 hours, however,
the shear appears to decrease once again, and sufficiently warm
waters of 26-27C should allow the hurricane's intensity to change
little for a couple of days. It should be noted that if Dora's
track shifts any farther south, then it would move over warmer
waters and could even have the potential to re-intensify in the
low-shear environment. Additional weakening is noted by days 4 and
5, following the overall trends in the intensity guidance, but Dora
is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 14.1N 123.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.9N 125.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 13.6N 128.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 13.3N 131.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 13.0N 135.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 12.6N 141.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 12.4N 149.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 12.7N 157.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Ntxw]

About 10 units so far, forecast currently would yield at least ~20 more. Eye obscured but cold tops. Maybe another run in 6 hours?

[Yellow Evan]

Likely in the middle or later stages of another ERC. Bursting pattern that led to obscuring of the eye was a sign of such as well.

[Cyclenall]

Ok this is gorgeous.

Same, this is a great hurricane. The pinhole even came back . For goodness sakes Dora, go south!