2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Jr0d]

hmmmmm, oceanic sand dunes perhaps? Oh that mischievous Uncle Sal.

You can see the SAL on the visible to the north of it. As it approaches the LAs maybe it will disperse enough to allow further development. Seems like a major inhibiting factor for now.

[Nimbus]

That area south of the CV islands looks surprisingly active in the IR.
Was hoping for a Quiet August.

[Tailgater33]

Invest worthy imho but I guess we have time to see if it can dry up completely.

[Category5Kaiju]

00Z CMC going on a little joyride, I see

[BobHarlem]

Other than the Canadian and ultra long range GFS, it's really unusually quiet in the Atlantic on the models, even the ensembles have gone mostly quiet. The wave around 34-35 west should start to fall apart late today if the GFS is correct. The Canadian (and GFS in the ultra long range) develops the wave moving off Africa right now.

This link takes you to this thread roughly around the same time 2021, it was pretty quiet then too, eventually Fred popped up on the 11th.

[tiger_deF]

I'm starting to think that the wave that the CMC has been insistent on developing is actually the current wave off of the coast Africa (or an amalgamation of energies which is primarily driven by that wave). While the wave at 34W has been impressive convectively and has had a vigorous MLC, the vorticity at different levels of the atmosphere has not been stacked at all, and all signatures have been and currently are well to the East of the MLC. In addition, it's large pocket and sprawling characteristics make it easier for dry air to intrude on the system as the GFS suggests.

Meanwhile, the current wave off of Africa has 850-500mb vorticity in the same place and centered on it's convective mass, and a significantly more impressive (i.e. existing) surface 850mb presentation than the westward wave had at the same longitude. Development chances are still slim without model support, but it bears watching.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Other than the Canadian and ultra long range GFS, it's really unusually quiet in the Atlantic on the models, even the ensembles have gone mostly quiet. The wave around 34-35 west should start to fall apart late today if the GFS is correct. The Canadian (and GFS in the ultra long range) develops the wave moving off Africa right now.

This link takes you to this thread roughly around the same time 2021, it was pretty quiet then too, eventually Fred popped up on the 11th.

I notice that models aren't very good at picking up on when the "switch" finally flips in the Atlantic. I'm not saying that they'll be wrong, but there are indications that the Atlantic may become active despite what the ensembles/operational models are showing.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1687429095225765888




Also, the mdr is noticeably more alive now than last year at this time just by looking at satellite alone. There were no late July invests nor sustaining blobs of convection, everything last year just went poof the second they touched the ocean.

[Category5Kaiju]

Other than the Canadian and ultra long range GFS, it's really unusually quiet in the Atlantic on the models, even the ensembles have gone mostly quiet. The wave around 34-35 west should start to fall apart late today if the GFS is correct. The Canadian (and GFS in the ultra long range) develops the wave moving off Africa right now.

This link takes you to this thread roughly around the same time 2021, it was pretty quiet then too, eventually Fred popped up on the 11th.

I notice that models aren't very good at picking up on when the "switch" finally flips in the Atlantic. I'm not saying that they'll be wrong, but there are indications that the Atlantic may become active despite what the ensembles/operational models are showing.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1687429095225765888

Also, the mdr is noticeably more alive now than last year at this time just by looking at satellite alone. There were no late July invests nor sustaining blobs of convection, everything last year just went poof the second they touched the ocean.

Yeah, it's almost like when you're driving a car and cannot see cars next to you in the blind spots. Models are kind of like this too, with the blind spots being the "switch flip" timeframes.

[Emmett_Brown]

The air in the basin is still July style, very stable. I live in Sarasota, and our afternoon storms are short lived... very July like. The switch flip hasn't happened yet for sure. A quiet couple of weeks feels about right considering the conditions outside. Each year, when the switch flips, it is noticeable in Florida. The air gets cleaner, sky bluer, and breezes pick up, and convection just pops easily, especially at night over the gulf. It's not here yet, but that's normal for this time of year.

[toad strangler]

The air in the basin is still July style, very stable. I live in Sarasota, and our afternoon storms are short lived... very July like. The switch flip hasn't happened yet for sure. A quiet couple of weeks feels about right considering the conditions outside. Each year, when the switch flips, it is noticeable in Florida. The air gets cleaner, sky bluer, and breezes pick up, and convection just pops easily, especially at night over the gulf. It's not here yet, but that's normal for this time of year.

Meanwhile, the east coast of FL has been inundated with rain since April. I think you are referring to peninsula FL wet season battle of east and west coast sea breeze. Rather than a region wide observation.

[Emmett_Brown]

The air in the basin is still July style, very stable. I live in Sarasota, and our afternoon storms are short lived... very July like. The switch flip hasn't happened yet for sure. A quiet couple of weeks feels about right considering the conditions outside. Each year, when the switch flips, it is noticeable in Florida. The air gets cleaner, sky bluer, and breezes pick up, and convection just pops easily, especially at night over the gulf. It's not here yet, but that's normal for this time of year.

Meanwhile, the east coast of FL has been inundated with rain since April. I think you are referring to peninsula FL wet season battle of east and west coast sea breeze. Rather than a region wide observation.

Yeah good point. I guess my point is more relevant to the night time convection. With all that hot water, if the switch had flipped, we would be seeing lots of storms out there nightly, but it's still suppressed, which can be seen on today's satellite loop for example. Nothing out of the ordinary, just a typical stable regime in the basin at the moment.

[wxman57]

Yeah, it's almost like when you're driving a car and cannot see cars next to you in the blind spots. Models are kind of like this too, with the blind spots being the "switch flip" timeframes.

If you have a "blind spot", then you haven't adjusted your side view mirrors properly. Most people set them up to use as rear-view mirrors by pointing them inward toward their cars. However, they should be adjusted away from your car. You should never see your own car and to the rear of your car in the side mirrors. When you do that, no blind spot. Your rear-view mirror is for looking behind you, not the side mirrors. Read an article about this in Car & Driver in the 1980s.

As for the models, it looks fairly normal out there in the MDR for early August. Still some dust to deal with, and the shear is a bit high for development. We should see a change in the next couple of weeks. Big question remaining is how will the El Nino affect the Caribbean? I still think those of you in the NE Caribbean, like Luis, may be in for a significant impact this season. Watch out Bahamas, South Florida, and the Carolinas.

[LarryWx]

I'm starting to think that the wave that the CMC has been insistent on developing is actually the current wave off of the coast Africa (or an amalgamation of energies which is primarily driven by that wave). While the wave at 34W has been impressive convectively and has had a vigorous MLC, the vorticity at different levels of the atmosphere has not been stacked at all, and all signatures have been and currently are well to the East of the MLC. In addition, it's large pocket and sprawling characteristics make it easier for dry air to intrude on the system as the GFS suggests.

Meanwhile, the current wave off of Africa has 850-500mb vorticity in the same place and centered on it's convective mass, and a significantly more impressive (i.e. existing) surface 850mb presentation than the westward wave had at the same longitude. Development chances are still slim without model support, but it bears watching.

The last several days of the admittedly inferior quality CFS have been taking energy coming off Africa about now and having it early next week collide with energy now WSW of the CV Islands. It subsequently has TCG in the MDR. The TC ends up threatening the SE US at midmonth. On these CFS runs, that has been the most threatening system for the entire month to the SE US. But again, the CFS is relatively inferior. So, this is fwiw, which may not be much. But it does have the last few CMC/GEPS in pretty good agreement along with the ICON to an extent. Also, add the JMA to that support list.

[BobHarlem]

12z Canadian is weaker this run with the wave just off Africa, doesn't develop like 0z does. However the vorticity area winds up in the Bahamas and near Florida around Aug 13-14 which matches fairly close to what the 12z gfs (and 12z euro) does with it. Anything that could potentially get over or near the Bahamas and Florida probably should be watched, even if it doesn't look like much now.

[BobHarlem]

The other hint in the CMC/GFS/Euro (12z euro really made me notice it) is the weather currently over New England and parts of Canada getting out, spitting off then heading back west. Euro seems to be more organized than others, but between that trough and the wave I think there are signs things will change next week. It's just getting into the time of year where I'm a lot more suspicious of things than in July.

[gatorcane]

Both the GFS and the Euro show some kind of low-level vorticity heading west under a ridge. Euro into Cuba and GFS recurves over or near Florida. Who knows, the models could be underdoing the intensity as we know they are not that reliable this far out plus it is somewhat more defined on the 12Z Euro as compared to the 00Z:

GFS:


Euro:

[hurricane2025]

EURO ensembles lights up the gulf

[SFLcane]

This needs to be watched… 1/2 punch for Florida

[Nimbus]

This needs to be watched… 1/2 punch for Florida

https://i.postimg.cc/4N4sk9TZ/IMG-7385.gif

Big spread coming into the windward and leeward islands Wednesday-Thursday next week.
The most southern tracks are usually for weaker systems which have a lower chance of recurving into Florida.

[Ianswfl]

This needs to be watched… 1/2 punch for Florida

https://i.postimg.cc/4N4sk9TZ/IMG-7385.gif

This thing is hauling speed under a high too towards the end of the run! Doesn't that remind you of a certain A storm? Models likely way underestimating the intensity here if there is low shear. I live in SWFL so I would get a weaker storm and little surge. I admit I'm kinda pumped up here in Punta Gorda because I love hurricanes.