#270 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 05, 2023 4:44 pm
Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023
Dora has become significantly better organized over the past six
hours, with a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside a cold central
dense overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates are now in the 100-120 kt range, and the
initial intensity is increased to 115 kt in best agreement with the
subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB.
As noted in the last several advisories, Dora continues moving
westward along the southern side of a deep-layer ridge to the north.
This ridge is expected to build westward for the next three days
or so, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while it
passes well south of Hawaii early next week. There has been little
change to the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is again almost identical to the old track.
Dora is moving over sea surface temperatures near 27C, and it is
currently in a light-shear environment. This is at least partly
responsible for the current intensification. The intensity
guidance suggests this round of intensification should be almost
over, although there is some uncertainty in this since it
underestimated how strong the storm would get today. Based on the
current trends and the current guidance, the intensity forecast
calls for some additional strengthening during the next 12 h,
followed by some weakening. After 48 h, while Dora should remain
over 27C sea surface temperatures and in light shear through 96 h,
it is expected to encounter a drier environment and an area of
upper-level convergence. These factors should lead to continued
gradual weakening, with the caveat that there is a large spread in
the guidance on how much weakening will occur. The early part of
the intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the intensity
guidance, while the 60-120 h portion is in best agreement with the
SHIPS model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 13.3N 134.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
