2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[zzzh]

GFS trended stronger on the wave near 35W.

[zzzh]

GFS now shows a TD/weak TS in West Caribbean. No other models show development.

[weeniepatrol]

No other models show development.

Next!!!

[hurricane2025]

Carrib and gulf looks interesting the rest of august tons of moisture

[cycloneye]

Two runs in a row from GFS on long range of a MDR storm that recurves away from the Lesser Antilles.

[REDHurricane]

00z EPS and GEFS both starting to get frisky starting around 8/12 through 8/20:

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS Ensembles backed off from the 0z run quite a bit, Looks like nothing solid in the basin for another week or two or so. East Pacific though...

[gatorcane]

Wind shear across the MDR doesn’t look too bad (close to normal), but the main issue at the moment appears to be the dry, stable air. Below is the 10-day ECMWF loop where we can see the abundance of dry air across the Atlantic:

[Wampadawg]

https://twitter.com/srmullens/status/16 ... LVy9FI4apA

[Blown Away]

Wind shear across the MDR doesn’t look too bad (close to normal), but the main issue at the moment appears to be the dry, stable air. Below is the 10-day ECMWF loop where we can see the abundance of dry air across the Atlantic:

https://i.postimg.cc/2ypgc1nq/ecmwf-mid-RH-atl-fh0-240.gif

IMO, this is a normal look for early to mid August. This El Niño extreme SST season was advertising an earlier maybe active August than El Niño shear taking hold in September sometime. Based on long range models today it seems like a typical El Niño season with maybe a bit more activity due to SST. JMHO

[Ianswfl]

Wind shear across the MDR doesn’t look too bad (close to normal), but the main issue at the moment appears to be the dry, stable air. Below is the 10-day ECMWF loop where we can see the abundance of dry air across the Atlantic:

https://i.postimg.cc/2ypgc1nq/ecmwf-mid-RH-atl-fh0-240.gif

Seems true cv season starts later now, more dry air longer into august than the 90s

[cycloneye]

Operational 12z GFS has backed off on the long range MDR and the wave now at 35W develops in EPAC.

[Wampadawg]

Operational 12z GFS has backed off on the long range MDR and the wave now at 35W develops in EPAC.

Be interesting to see if they come back on the next run.

[gatorcane]

The Canadian continues to show EPAC development keeping the Atlantic quiet over the next 10 days besides a weak low near the Cape Verde islands which is less defined this run than the 00Z:

[gatorcane]

Operational 12z GFS has backed off on the long range MDR and the wave now at 35W develops in EPAC.

Also the GFS ensembles are favoring the EPAC for the most part:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1688248281493549056

[LarryWx]

Should the CFS due to its inferiority be ignored? For at least two runs, it has shown a TS moving into the NE Caribbean late week while no other operational shows any TC.

[AtlanticWind]

We are just 10 to 20 days from Atlantic activity starting up,
The models should start reflecting this pretty soon I expect.

[jlauderdal]

We are just 10 to 20 days from Atlantic activity starting up,
The models should start reflecting this pretty soon I expect.

What leads you to believe we get activity in 10 to 20 days?

[AtlanticWind]

We are just 10 to 20 days from Atlantic activity starting up,
The models should start reflecting this pretty soon I expect.

What leads you to believe we get activity in 10 to 20 days?

It’s the time frame an average season ramps up and a season expected to be above normal by the experts
I see this as the most likely scenario.

The models usally began picking up storm formation as we get later in August.